Imperial Japan victory

Japan gambles on the USA not entering the war in late 1941 by attacking all non-US held territory in South East Asia.
Gamble pays off and America stays out.

By mid 1942 the Japanese Navy captures Fort Moresby in New Guinea, New Caladonia, Fiji and Samoa.
Invasion of Australia by late 1942.
Australia captured by late 1943.
1944 Japanese overun India.
Mid 1944 New Zealand invaded and occupied.

Mmmmm now I still cant see Germany winning the war in Europe but it would be interesting.

I suppose it may be possible for Japan to send its fleet units south and bombard the east coast cities into surrender provided there is an adequate supply line and sufficent troops to allow an occupation of the cities.

What will the Allies do with all these Japanese resources tied up down here?

How does Japan get the necessary resources to carry it out?
 
a) Even if Germany got the Philippines why would Japan get them as a Mandate? There is no way that such a prize would go to Japan afetr such a minimal effort in the Great War

Presumably, Japanese troops would have played a substantial role in conquering The Philippines from Imperial Germany, and thus played a greater role in the conflict.
 
Japan gambles on the USA not entering the war in late 1941 by attacking all non-US held territory in South East Asia.
Gamble pays off and America stays out.

By mid 1942 the Japanese Navy captures Fort Moresby in New Guinea, New Caladonia, Fiji and Samoa.
Invasion of Australia by late 1942.
Australia captured by late 1943.
1944 Japanese overun India.
Mid 1944 New Zealand invaded and occupied.

Mmmmm now I still cant see Germany winning the war in Europe but it would be interesting.

Huh, why be so optimistic? Japan's war machine would've suffered some serious setbacks without scrap metal and oil. They also would've had to pull several divisions off China.

India wouldn't have been much better.
 
a) Even if Germany got the Philippines why would Japan get them as a Mandate? There is no way that such a prize would go to Japan afetr such a minimal effort in the Great War combined with hostility from Australia who would be violently opposed to their getting them. Britain did consider the Australian objections to renewing the Anglo-Japanese alliance and it would do the same in this scenario. I fail to see how the UK would consider it in its national or imperial interests to allow such a gain by Japan in the Pacific.

b) In OTL the Japanese were forced to leave Russian territory by the Americans who along with all the other interventionists powers saw the victory of the Reds as inevitable and their positions as untenable. The other interventionist powers would not permit Japan to remain and even if they did it would be certain that the Red Army would expel them.

c) Even if the Depression is worse, American national interests in the Pacific would mean that some effort would be put into its security.

Presumably, Japanese troops would have played a substantial role in conquering The Philippines from Imperial Germany, and thus played a greater role in the conflict.

a). Yeah, MarkA, maybe you mean, "minimal effort" as in OTL but ITTL, the Japanese would have committed a great amount of military force in taking the PH, resulting in larger, bloodier and more signifcant East Asian thatre for WW1 with the Japanese of course playing a much larger role. The Australians would probably join the Japanese in taking the Philippines by fighting in its southern parts and like I said, the British would get that part of it after the war and the Japanese would get to take the remaining 2/3's of it.

b). If you look at the history of the Far Eastern Republic, the shortlived Siberian state. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Far_Eastern_Republic), you'll see that it was created with the tacit support of the Reds because of the desire for a buffer state between Red Russia and Japan. Now, a number of consequential events such as coups and defections, that easily could have gone differently, caused it to voluntarily join with the USSR. And if things had gone differently, the Japanese could have lingered on for a much longer time, even without maintaining a major military presence there and by just having close relations with the FER as an ally or vassal.

And its just really the Japanese discovery of oil around these parts that is the main POD so things could go as in OTL with Manchuria falling to the Japanese around the same time or earlier and then oil being discovered.

c). Also, you have to remember that all of these POD's happen in the same TL so its a combination of all these things that really makes for the Japanese victory. Also, Japan isn't really threatening US interests, it mostly focusing its might inland into mainland Asia rather than in SE Asia and the waters surrounding the US. Now that it has resources to take China, it would have no reason to do most of the other things it did OTL. Maybe it could go on to conquer the rest of SE Asia (it already has the Philippines) much later when it is more powerful and when its occupation of China has been consolidated.
 
I've got a couple of PODs that I think could make for a victorious Imperial Japan that survives well after the 40's.

a). Germany gets the Philippines in 1900, meaning no American involvement in the Pacific. After WW1 (Entente still wins but the US stays neutral), Japan gets it as a LON mandate. Probably the southern part of it goes to Britain.


EDIT: All these POD's exist in the same TL. I suppose only the first one is the POD and the rest are butterflies.

The Americans have conquered the Philippines in the 1898 war against Spain. Why in the world should they give them to the Germans just two years later:confused::confused::confused:??
The other PODs are at least debatable, but the first one looks quite ASBish to me.
 
a). Yeah, MarkA, maybe you mean, "minimal effort" as in OTL but ITTL, the Japanese would have committed a great amount of military force in taking the PH, resulting in larger, bloodier and more signifcant East Asian thatre for WW1 with the Japanese of course playing a much larger role. The Australians would probably join the Japanese in taking the Philippines by fighting in its southern parts and like I said, the British would get that part of it after the war and the Japanese would get to take the remaining 2/3's of it.

b). If you look at the history of the Far Eastern Republic, the shortlived Siberian state. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Far_Eastern_Republic), you'll see that it was created with the tacit support of the Reds because of the desire for a buffer state between Red Russia and Japan. Now, a number of consequential events such as coups and defections, that easily could have gone differently, caused it to voluntarily join with the USSR. And if things had gone differently, the Japanese could have lingered on for a much longer time, even without maintaining a major military presence there and by just having close relations with the FER as an ally or vassal.

And its just really the Japanese discovery of oil around these parts that is the main POD so things could go as in OTL with Manchuria falling to the Japanese around the same time or earlier and then oil being discovered.

c). Also, you have to remember that all of these POD's happen in the same TL so its a combination of all these things that really makes for the Japanese victory. Also, Japan isn't really threatening US interests, it mostly focusing its might inland into mainland Asia rather than in SE Asia and the waters surrounding the US. Now that it has resources to take China, it would have no reason to do most of the other things it did OTL. Maybe it could go on to conquer the rest of SE Asia (it already has the Philippines) much later when it is more powerful and when its occupation of China has been consolidated.

Taking the Phillipines from the Germans would be a minimal effort. Where would the German troops come from to hold it?

Japan waltzling in and pushing aside some ramshakle colonial force led by retrired German officers will not mean the Allies will let them keep it after the war. This is completely different to what was considered some relatively unimportant islands be ceded to Japan in OTL. Indeed, these small islands were considered adequate reward for the minimal effort the Japanese did.
 
Taking the Phillipines from the Germans would be a minimal effort. Where would the German troops come from to hold it?

Japan waltzling in and pushing aside some ramshakle colonial force led by retrired German officers will not mean the Allies will let them keep it after the war. This is completely different to what was considered some relatively unimportant islands be ceded to Japan in OTL. Indeed, these small islands were considered adequate reward for the minimal effort the Japanese did.

1. That depends on how important the Phillipines are to Imperial Germany.

2. Will the Allies go to war again to make the Japanese disgorge the Philippines?
 
1. That depends on how important the Phillipines are to Imperial Germany.

2. Will the Allies go to war again to make the Japanese disgorge the Philippines?

The Phillipines will not be as important as winning the war in Europe. Where would the troops come from to defend the Phillipines?

LoN Mandates were binding on the members. If Japan refused to withdraw then sanctions first and war if necessary. Japan would not last long if it was foolish enough to refuse.
 
What about Nomonhan?

Have the Soviets fight the Imperial Japanese to a draw at Nomonhan in 1939 rather than the Reds crush the Japanese outright (Stalin purges Zhukov, etc.). The Japanese would not be as deterred as in OTL for a rematch, decide to go a second round in 1941 rather than strike south, the Soviets are hit from both sides and vital troops needed to save Moscow instead remain in the Far East, European USSR collapses, and the Japanese hold a huge chunk of Siberia as the Red Army falls apart. More importantly, the Germans could get Baku. Possible alternative fuel source for Japan as well as raw materials. Japan could also decide to push into Central Asia. This may cause enough of a shake-up to help Japan survive through the 1940s at least.
 
The Americans have conquered the Philippines in the 1898 war against Spain. Why in the world should they give them to the Germans just two years later:confused::confused::confused:??

At the end of the Spanish-American War, the Germans attempted to press a claim to much of the Spanish holdings, not just The Philippines; they wanted Puerto Rico too! This was the background behind the plot of the Kevin J. Anderson novel, 1901, when the Germans invaded Long Island.
 
Have them discover the Daqing oil field early in their puppet Manchukuo; enough oil there to make their military independent of foreign oil.

They had this idea in the Zipang alt history anime. I haven't watched it all yet, so I don't know how it will help though...

It's a rather good watch (or read if you prefer the manga), and I recommend it.
 
Taking the Phillipines from the Germans would be a minimal effort. Where would the German troops come from to hold it?

Japan waltzling in and pushing aside some ramshakle colonial force led by retrired German officers will not mean the Allies will let them keep it after the war. This is completely different to what was considered some relatively unimportant islands be ceded to Japan in OTL. Indeed, these small islands were considered adequate reward for the minimal effort the Japanese did.

A Japanese campaign to take the PH would not be a "minimal effort" or a "waltz". First of all before the Japanese even get to land in the PH, they'd go up against a formidable German naval force based in the Manila and Subic Bays. And after that, even if the land campaign goes over smoothly, they'd have to put up against Filipino guerrillas.

Remember the vicious Philippine guerrilla campaign against the Americans? Well if the Filipinos develop a loyalty to the Germans then you could expect the same resistance against the Japanese but this time with German arms and military hardware instead of just machetes. Or the old Revolutionaries could make a comeback and launch a guerrilla campaign with the aim of establishing a Republic. And they would still have German arms and hardware left over for their disposal. The Germans could still support the old Revolutionaries against the Japanese btw.

Or the situation could be reversed with the Japanese supporting the Revolutionaries and claiming that they are "liberating" the PH with the aim of helping the Filipinos gain their independence from German colonial rule, an earlier incarnation of their WW2-era Pan-Asianism. The end result of that would be a either a LON Mandate or a de facto independent PH allied and subject to Japan. Also, it means that the Japanese get to establish naval and land bases in throughout the country.

And regardless of how easy or difficult the whole invasion is, by the time the war ends in Europe, the Japanese would have troops all over the PH. Even if they don't get to occupy the whole of it, maybe having some provinces left unconquered or having to share Mindanao with the British, the Japanese presence there would be too significant. It would simply be too big a slap in the face of Japanese sovereignty to "ask" them to withdraw their forces. They would most certainly refuse if they are asked to and what would the Allies do then? Invade the Philippines? Right after WW1? To simply push out the Japanese?

The Japanese would get to keep the PH, whether as a Mandate, a colony or a vassal and if not the whole of it then at least a significant part of it. That would give the Japanese more resources for later conquests and most importantly, the Americans would be mostly absent from the region.
 
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Don't forget that after the US got the Philippines from Spain we ended with with a long, bloody guerilla war. Perhaps Japan would pay the US for them, getting America out of that mess? Or the old "Asia for the Asians" battlecry?
 
Hamburger originally suggested some PODs that could have prevented a US - Japan conflict.

The simplest way of avoiding US involvement in the Philippines is to have an unlikely outbreak of clear sightedness in the Spanish government in say 1897. Realizing that they are about to lose all their colonies, they sell the Philippines to Germany for the four Brandenburg class battleships to try to hold Cuba [which might give an interesting 1898 for the pre-1900 board]. Subsequently, Japan supports rebels against Germany and an independent PH after a 1914-15 conquest.

However, there are many other ways of avoiding conflict. Hendryk suggested discovery of oil at Daqing https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=70329. I suggested that Germany did not attack the Netherlands in 1940 https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=105520. Mike Ralls suggests Chiang Kai-Shek's early death and a return to warlord rule in China http://www.geocities.com/misterralls/ishiwara.html. An outbreak of clear sightedness in Japan in about 1922 might have led them to suggest to Britain, France and the USA that warlords should be prevented from fighting each other as it interfered with commerce and that communist inspired movements should be suppressed. The IJA could have been offered for this onerous duty and might have ensured that China remained divided among many warlords indefinitely.

Finally, what if Yonai etc. had lost and Japan had declared war on Britain in 1939 or early 1940? A possible incident might have occurred if the Asama Maru had refused to stop and HMS Liverpool had opened fire. If Japan had taken Singapore in early May 1940 without an American declaration of war, perhaps the main British fleet might have been sunk off Ceylon while Dunkirk falls. As Churchill was First Lord when the incident occurred, he might have been blamed and with little to oppose Italy or to defend the Empire, Britain might have made peace.
 
The Japanese were stopped by the Australians recalled from North Africa along the Kokoda Trail in New Guinea pretty much on their own in 1942. Besides fighting in Russia, this was possibly the hardest terrian to conduct warfare. It was also the first time Japanese were recalled by Tokyo during the war. Afterwhich they were pursued back along the trail. Im thinking if this is what happened in New Guinea, god knows how the Japanese would have gone on mainland Australia!

Also weren't the Japanese essentially interested in an Asian Empire? Why bother trying to convert the inconvertible. I would imagine the intense zenophobia in Australia (reinforced by the White Australia Policy) at that time would have changed it into a fight to the death, or something akin to the Boer War for the Brits. It would have probably come down to a scorch earth policy and eradication of the white population.:eek: I cant see the US or Brits allowing this without some kind of intervention eventually.

Supply lines are unquestionably the key. Remember Australia is the size of US. Perth to Sydney is the same distance as London to Vladistock. (Perth, the only main town at that time is also the most isolated city in the world). What would they also be doing here as Iron Ore Industry was yet to get into full production. Australia was very rural based in it exports. It also had its own strong manufacturing base and could possibly be reasonably self reliant even in a blockade. I think at best that they would have got a foothold in Darwin where they could strategically move out as well as take over the naval base there.

New Zealand is another story. Kiwis would have been easy beats like their rugby team :D
 
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LoN Mandates were binding on the members. If Japan refused to withdraw then sanctions first and war if necessary. Japan would not last long if it was foolish enough to refuse.

So, let me get this straight. You're saying, at the end of WWI, with the Japanese in actual physical possession of the Philippines, the British, on whose side the Japanese just fought, would go to war to take them away from Japan while the Anglo-Japanese alliance treaty is still in force (as it will be until 1923)?
 
They had this idea in the Zipang alt history anime. I haven't watched it all yet, so I don't know how it will help though...

It's a rather good watch (or read if you prefer the manga), and I recommend it.

The Zipang anime ends in a cliffhanger. Kusaka escapes to China, with the XO Kodamatsu hot on his heels. The Japanese don't know about the Daqing oil fields yet (except Kusaka and some of his subordinates). I best like the part where its Mirai vs. 40 Dauntless and some TBDs.

I haven't read the manga.
 
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