Imperial Japan survives WWII?

Lets say that Japan never attacks Pearl Harbor, Malaysia, the DEI, and never goes to war against the Allies during WWII.

What happens to Imperial Japan in the Cold War? They run out of oil, obviously, so what happens in China? Could/would they form their own economic block? How does China play out? Would either of the superpowers try to use Japan as a proxy in the Chinese Civil War? Does Japan get along better with the Soviets or Americans?

Sorry, this is my first thread. I had a longer, more detailed post typed up, but then I lost it. :eek:
 
Congratulations...

First, welcome to the Forum and second, it's good to see the first scenario from a newcomer something of genuine interest. I think we've covered "No Pacific War" in the past but it's always good to have a new perspective.

Japan wouldn't run out of oil - it didn't during 1937-41 when its forces were rampaging through China - oil was still being delivered and it still would be. The conflict in China was frankly of marginal significance to the European powers as long as it remained a wholly sino-japanese buisiness.

The Japanese might be in some ways sympathetic to Nazi Germany but I could envisage them acting more like Franco in Spain - a lot of kind words but no action. Would there be an eventual war between Germany and the US in the absence of Pearl Harbour? I'm inclined to think so and it would be the result of German maritime activity in the Atlantic or near Ireland.

In the absence of a campaign in the Pacific, could Japan defeat Chiang Kai-Shek's China and force the Government to terms? I'm not sure - China seems a huge country to control even for Japan.

A lot depends on how the European War is resolved - a Nazi victory would create a tripolar world - Germany, the USA and Japan which I've seen in other AH stories. A victory for the Allies would leave an assertive USSR on Japan's northern frontier with the likelihood of increased support for Chinese Communist guerillas.

Japan might still consider herself "contained" by European and American forces to the south and east. Singapore would remain a formidable military bastion in the region and a projection of British power.

There are a lot of interesting questions - few answers - and plenty to consider.
 
Welcome to the board!

Imperial Japan surviving the War probably means they don't invade China in 1937 setting off the chain of events that leads to the oil embargo and Pearl Harbour. Or they decide to negotiate with the Americans in 1941 and pull back from China in return for lifting the embargo, in either case there's little reason for America and Britain to attack Japan, so the status quo remains.

After the War in Europe is concluded things in the Far East would get really interesting, especially if the Chinese Civil War flares up again and if Mao were to emerge victorious. The Japanese would then be faced with 2 much larger Communist neighbours on their frontiers, I think in those circumstances they would want to form some sort of defensive alliance with the Western Powers, how plausible this would be would depend on a lot of factors not least the political situation in America. A major war in Manchuria involving all the Great Powers of the time might well happen!
 
The problem with a Japan stays out is the Kwantung Army. Pretty much from 1931 on, it took an independent line and basically set policy on the ground with regards to China. Assassination threats (and occasional actual assassinations) were routinely used to push the debate in Tokyo towards an increasingly-aggressive posture. Unless you can calm this down - or short-circuit it entirely by averting the intervention into Manchuria and managing to deal with the 'ultrapatriots' properly - some form of Imperial Japanese state likely goes to war.
 
Japan wouldn't run out of oil - it didn't during 1937-41 when its forces were rampaging through China - oil was still being delivered and it still would be. The conflict in China was frankly of marginal significance to the European powers as long as it remained a wholly sino-japanese buisiness.

Actually, it might very well.

Japan was rapidly running out of foreign currency and could no longer get many foreign loans.

So they faced the prospect of not being able to buy the stuff they needed. Moreover, much (?half?) of the shipping they used was foreign owned, and that would dry up as well.
 
Actually, it might very well.

Japan was rapidly running out of foreign currency and could no longer get many foreign loans.

So they faced the prospect of not being able to buy the stuff they needed. Moreover, much (?half?) of the shipping they used was foreign owned, and that would dry up as well.

In 1941, Japan needed 10,000,000 tons of shipping to maintain her economy, 4,000,000 tons of which was foreign.
 

Cook

Banned
Japan wouldn't run out of oil - it didn't during 1937-41 when its forces were rampaging through China - oil was still being delivered and it still would be. The conflict in China was frankly of marginal significance to the European powers as long as it remained a wholly sino-japanese buisiness.

That is not entirely the case; all of the colonial powers had trade interests in China and most significantly so did the United States. The China ‘Open Door’ policy was one of the most significant long term American foreign policies; Japan’s intention to establish hegemony over all of China was in direct conflict with this. The ‘China Lobby’ was as significant in the ‘30s and ‘40s on Capitol Hill as the ‘Israel Lobby’ is said by some to have been in the ‘90s. The American response to Japan’s aggression in China was restricted by pre-existing trade agreements which expired in 1941, allowing the US to impose trade embargoes on Japan after that.

Assuming Japan does not occupy Vichy French Indo-China, or at least the south of Indo-China, Japan may avoid an oil embargo in mid-1941 but for how long is debatable and they occupied Indo-China in the first place to prevent aid from the European Colonial powers and America from reaching the Nationalist Chinese. So no occupation of Indo-China means stronger resistance from the Nationalists.

Japanese aggression in China is not going to be ignored by the world following the defeat of Nazi Germany, images of the Concentration Camps in Europe would be reaching the world and people had already heard of the Rape of Nanking, sympathy for the Chinese would skyrocket.
 
Lets say that Japan never attacks Pearl Harbor, Malaysia, the DEI, and never goes to war against the Allies during WWII.

What happens to Imperial Japan in the Cold War? They run out of oil, obviously, so what happens in China? Could/would they form their own economic block? How does China play out? Would either of the superpowers try to use Japan as a proxy in the Chinese Civil War? Does Japan get along better with the Soviets or Americans?

Sorry, this is my first thread. I had a longer, more detailed post typed up, but then I lost it. :eek:

Let's take as a PoD that Japan doesn't occupy Indochina. That was the proximal cause of the oil embargo, which in turn put them on a collision course with the US and the Dutch.

Japan struggles along until the war ends in the mid 1940's (Germany WILL be defeated, and the US WILL get into the war sooner or later). Japan can't truly conquer China, but the various warlords and Mao aren't strong enough to push them back much either.

Japan now has a choice.
1. They can try to cosy up to the US, which would mean a significant pull-back in China; the US, at a military peak, has no reason to settle for less. Thus, this isn't likely to work out.
2. They can cosy up to the Europeans, offering to help them with their troublesome Far Eastern possessions (there will be trouble in Vietnam, for example). That... might work. With Japanese aid the French might be able to hold onto Indochina. The US wouldn't approve of Japan, but wouldn't be willing to antagonize an ally (France, at the time) in order to actually do anything of note against the Japanese. It is perhaps even a reasonable step from "we helped you in Indochina" to "help us / sell us weapons to use in China".
3. They can cosy up to the USSR, offering them disputed territory on Sakhalin and perhaps Manchuria to sweeten the deal. The Japanese agree to halt operations against the ChiComs, and thus get a free hand to deal with the rest of China. The problem is that this situation can't last. Mao wants all of China, and the Japanese are no more able to defeat China in 1950 than they were in 1940. Also, the US isn't just going to sit back and let a Soviet ally have a free hand in China. At the very least the US will increase their support of the Nationalists well above OTL levels. The Japanese won't stand for that for long, and if they become the Korea of this ATL they're doomed.
4. They can try to stay independent. This will result in a very short life for the Empire. The Soviets weren't happy with them before the war, nor the US, nor Europe, and they're still bogged down in China. All the other power blocs will, for various reasons, start seriously backing Japan's enemies. Eventually Japan will have to abandon China (and perhaps Korea, even Formosa) or be split up like Poland between the superpowers.
 
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