Lets say that Japan never attacks Pearl Harbor, Malaysia, the DEI, and never goes to war against the Allies during WWII.
What happens to Imperial Japan in the Cold War? They run out of oil, obviously, so what happens in China? Could/would they form their own economic block? How does China play out? Would either of the superpowers try to use Japan as a proxy in the Chinese Civil War? Does Japan get along better with the Soviets or Americans?
Sorry, this is my first thread. I had a longer, more detailed post typed up, but then I lost it.
Let's take as a PoD that Japan doesn't occupy Indochina. That was the proximal cause of the oil embargo, which in turn put them on a collision course with the US and the Dutch.
Japan struggles along until the war ends in the mid 1940's (Germany WILL be defeated, and the US WILL get into the war sooner or later). Japan can't truly conquer China, but the various warlords and Mao aren't strong enough to push them back much either.
Japan now has a choice.
1. They can try to cosy up to the US, which would mean a significant pull-back in China; the US, at a military peak, has no reason to settle for less. Thus, this isn't likely to work out.
2. They can cosy up to the Europeans, offering to help them with their troublesome Far Eastern possessions (there will be trouble in Vietnam, for example). That... might work. With Japanese aid the French might be able to hold onto Indochina. The US wouldn't approve of Japan, but wouldn't be willing to antagonize an ally (France, at the time) in order to actually do anything of note against the Japanese. It is perhaps even a reasonable step from "we helped you in Indochina" to "help us / sell us weapons to use in China".
3. They can cosy up to the USSR, offering them disputed territory on Sakhalin and perhaps Manchuria to sweeten the deal. The Japanese agree to halt operations against the ChiComs, and thus get a free hand to deal with the rest of China. The problem is that this situation can't last. Mao wants all of China, and the Japanese are no more able to defeat China in 1950 than they were in 1940. Also, the US isn't just going to sit back and let a Soviet ally have a free hand in China. At the very least the US will increase their support of the Nationalists well above OTL levels. The Japanese won't stand for that for long, and if they become the Korea of this ATL they're doomed.
4. They can try to stay independent. This will result in a very short life for the Empire. The Soviets weren't happy with them before the war, nor the US, nor Europe, and they're still bogged down in China. All the other power blocs will, for various reasons, start seriously backing Japan's enemies. Eventually Japan will have to abandon China (and perhaps Korea, even Formosa) or be split up like Poland between the superpowers.