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According to Gerhard Weinberg, the Japanese were not originally planning on getting involved in WW2. Though they had been planning on striking at the European empires in East Asia, they were planning on doing so in 1946. However, since Hitler was feeling the pressure from the United States' rather un-neutral neutrality, he wanted to go to war with the US and to fight the US he needed more naval strength - which meant getting Japan into the war. Thus, as the Germans were raping and murdering their way through the Soviet Union in 1941, the German diplomats were working hard to convince the Japanese to join the war, promising that if Japan declared war on the US, Germany would too.

The decision point for the Japanese apparently came just as the Germans were fighting in Moscow's suburbs. With the Germans seemingly about to take out the Soviet sword of Damocles and the promise of German strength being applied against the USA, the Japanese took the jump, and the strike on Pearl Harbour was authorized.

Of course, if the Japanese had continued hemming and hawwing for even another few days, they would have seen the Germans being driven back from Moscow and that the Soviets were still in contention. And maybe they'd have kept to their original plan of preparing for war in 1946.

In the meantime, WW2 would end in Europe and in all likelihood, the war in China would continue at enormous cost for both Japan and China. At this point, I can think of several ways this could go:

1) The Japanese, exhausted by their fight in China and wary of the strength of Europe and America, do not start a war and limp along.
1) a. The Japanese are then drawn into the American orbit by the Cold War.
1) b. The Japanese are then pushed into the Soviet orbit by continuing American hostility and pulled towards the Soviets by Soviet desperation for any ally to break their encirclement by the west.
1) c. The Japanese are diplomatically isolated, hated too much by either block. The Cold War stays away from Asia for a while.

2) The Japanese are so exhausted by their long war in China that even overthrowing the Emperor is no longer unthinkable. Possible Communist revolution in Japan? Civil War? Could interact messily with the Cold War to be sure.

3) The Japanese finish their preparations in 1946, or possibly a year or two late... The Pacific war starts between 1946 and 1949 with the Japanese attacking tired and likely somewhat wound-down military machines that do, however, have much more experience of fighting a serious war with modern technology.

And of course there's what happens to China itself. Does much change? IMO the Communists will likely be weaker relative to OTL. The Chinese as a whole may be a bit stronger since the Burma road will remain open and may even be upgraded to a railroad link. My bet is that both the US and the Soviets would continue to support the Nationalist Chinese over the Communists or the Japanese.

What do people think would happen?

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