Imperial Japan in the Cold War

According to Gerhard Weinberg, the Japanese were not originally planning on getting involved in WW2. Though they had been planning on striking at the European empires in East Asia, they were planning on doing so in 1946. However, since Hitler was feeling the pressure from the United States' rather un-neutral neutrality, he wanted to go to war with the US and to fight the US he needed more naval strength - which meant getting Japan into the war. Thus, as the Germans were raping and murdering their way through the Soviet Union in 1941, the German diplomats were working hard to convince the Japanese to join the war, promising that if Japan declared war on the US, Germany would too.

The decision point for the Japanese apparently came just as the Germans were fighting in Moscow's suburbs. With the Germans seemingly about to take out the Soviet sword of Damocles and the promise of German strength being applied against the USA, the Japanese took the jump, and the strike on Pearl Harbour was authorized.

Of course, if the Japanese had continued hemming and hawwing for even another few days, they would have seen the Germans being driven back from Moscow and that the Soviets were still in contention. And maybe they'd have kept to their original plan of preparing for war in 1946.

In the meantime, WW2 would end in Europe and in all likelihood, the war in China would continue at enormous cost for both Japan and China. At this point, I can think of several ways this could go:

1) The Japanese, exhausted by their fight in China and wary of the strength of Europe and America, do not start a war and limp along.
1) a. The Japanese are then drawn into the American orbit by the Cold War.
1) b. The Japanese are then pushed into the Soviet orbit by continuing American hostility and pulled towards the Soviets by Soviet desperation for any ally to break their encirclement by the west.
1) c. The Japanese are diplomatically isolated, hated too much by either block. The Cold War stays away from Asia for a while.

2) The Japanese are so exhausted by their long war in China that even overthrowing the Emperor is no longer unthinkable. Possible Communist revolution in Japan? Civil War? Could interact messily with the Cold War to be sure.

3) The Japanese finish their preparations in 1946, or possibly a year or two late... The Pacific war starts between 1946 and 1949 with the Japanese attacking tired and likely somewhat wound-down military machines that do, however, have much more experience of fighting a serious war with modern technology.

And of course there's what happens to China itself. Does much change? IMO the Communists will likely be weaker relative to OTL. The Chinese as a whole may be a bit stronger since the Burma road will remain open and may even be upgraded to a railroad link. My bet is that both the US and the Soviets would continue to support the Nationalist Chinese over the Communists or the Japanese.

What do people think would happen?

fasquardon
 
For point #1 they were going to run out of the natural resources necessary to continue any sort of offensive. So the best they can probably hope is a defensive stalemate in China that leads to an armistice. This seems a bit unlikely in my opinion.

Point #3 is even more unimaginable. The US military build up would have progressed to fight the war in Europe. Even if there is a marginal tilt away from the navy there will still be a lot of Essex carriers built. By 1944, even the IJA would have recognized their weak position relative to the US.

Point #2 is somewhat likely although I doubt it is communist. Perhaps. But I see a regime change within the army - doves vs. hawks rather than ideological regime change.

Where it gets really interesting is, let's say the war in Europe ends in 1944. US devotes its resources to fight Germany, lands in France in '43 and ends the war by mid to late 44. The Soviet army is rather less exhausted but possesses the same combat experience. It's not hard to imagine Stalin declaring war on Japan sometime between 1945 and 1948 to aid Mao. With Khalkhin Gol and the various border conflicts prior, Stalin has some pretext. And with Hitler now cast aside, he's not as likely to let a neutrality agreement get in the way.

So, Soviet troops run through Manchuria and likely press into Korea. Chiang calls on the US to support him as now he clearly has a new enemy. How does the US treat Japan? Post war divisions in Europe are still playing out but the US cant sit by idly.
 
Where it gets really interesting is, let's say the war in Europe ends in 1944. US devotes its resources to fight Germany, lands in France in '43 and ends the war by mid to late 44. The Soviet army is rather less exhausted but possesses the same combat experience. It's not hard to imagine Stalin declaring war on Japan sometime between 1945 and 1948 to aid Mao. With Khalkhin Gol and the various border conflicts prior, Stalin has some pretext. And with Hitler now cast aside, he's not as likely to let a neutrality agreement get in the way.

So, Soviet troops run through Manchuria and likely press into Korea. Chiang calls on the US to support him as now he clearly has a new enemy. How does the US treat Japan? Post war divisions in Europe are still playing out but the US cant sit by idly.

Stalin bet heavily on Chiang winning the Chinese civil war and the war against Japan. And evidence for Stalin's esteem of Mao is rather lacking. I just can't see Stalin fighting a war for Mao. Using Mao in a war of his own choosing, sure. But not the other way around.

If something like this scenario did happen, my bet is that it happens in part because Chiang will be trying to get anyone and everyone to kick Japan in the face so the stalemate in China ends and the Soviets enter as a Chinese ally, though not a generous ally.

For point #1 they were going to run out of the natural resources necessary to continue any sort of offensive. So the best they can probably hope is a defensive stalemate in China that leads to an armistice. This seems a bit unlikely in my opinion.

I was imagining a defensive stalemate that went on until one regime or the other broke (my bet is Japan breaks first) or an outside power comes in and decisively shifts the balance.

Though if the embargo on Japan stays, I expect Chinese strength will slowly rise above Japan's as transport infrastructure connecting China to British India and Soviet Eurasia improve, deepening their access to external markets.

fasquardon
 
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