alternatehistory.com

The Shah had always been attracted to nuclear energy as an option for Iran, as he wanted to use the country's petroleum and natural gas for more high value applications rather than burning it for electricity. Additionally, it was thought that Iranian energy reserves would quickly be exhausted due to high production and growing demand, requiring diversification.

In 1975 Imperial Iran ordered two 1,000 megawatt nuclear reactors from West Germany for Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant. It was planned for Unit 1 to become operational in 1980, with Unit 2 following in 1982. Additionally, in 1974 the Shah had approved plans for building up to 23 nuclear reactors by 2000 and invested billions of dollars in the Eurodif fuel fabrication and reprocessing facility. The Ford Administration even offered to sell Imperial Iran its own nuclear reprocessing facility between 1976 and the Carter Administration taking over in 1977 as part of an effort to market American nuclear technology.

If that occurs, could the Shah or a successor with similar ambition take advantage of the nuclear energy crash of the 1980s to push forward with an even more ambitious nuclear energy program, ordering even more reactors and perhaps even enrichment and reprocessing facilities to take advantage of the crash and government desires to help their industries? Keep in mind this was a very severe crash, with the industry suffering tens if not billions of dollars of losses in the United States alone. Also, there wasn't as much concern about proliferation from Imperial Iran at the time, at least not more than countries such as India and Pakistan.

Also, since Imperial Iran wouldn't be in a situation to design or build its own reactors, at least during the early period, might this prevent the lost generation(s) of nuclear reactors? Might Imperial Iran be a market for some of the more advanced proposals and applications being floated at the time, perhaps even purchasing a share in the reactor vendors following the crash?

Lastly, what are the odds that Imperial Iran would actually go ahead and build a nuclear arsenal, as opposed to doing some experiments? If Iran has a functioning nuclear industry and the Iranian Revolution occurs, even if it's just Bushehr (according to a 1998 report, each unit can produce 180 kilograms of plutonium per year, enough for a dozen nuclear bombs each), does it change things at all?
Top