Imperial Iranian Commercial Nuclear Program?

Delta Force

Banned
The Shah had always been attracted to nuclear energy as an option for Iran, as he wanted to use the country's petroleum and natural gas for more high value applications rather than burning it for electricity. Additionally, it was thought that Iranian energy reserves would quickly be exhausted due to high production and growing demand, requiring diversification.

In 1975 Imperial Iran ordered two 1,000 megawatt nuclear reactors from West Germany for Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant. It was planned for Unit 1 to become operational in 1980, with Unit 2 following in 1982. Additionally, in 1974 the Shah had approved plans for building up to 23 nuclear reactors by 2000 and invested billions of dollars in the Eurodif fuel fabrication and reprocessing facility. The Ford Administration even offered to sell Imperial Iran its own nuclear reprocessing facility between 1976 and the Carter Administration taking over in 1977 as part of an effort to market American nuclear technology.

If that occurs, could the Shah or a successor with similar ambition take advantage of the nuclear energy crash of the 1980s to push forward with an even more ambitious nuclear energy program, ordering even more reactors and perhaps even enrichment and reprocessing facilities to take advantage of the crash and government desires to help their industries? Keep in mind this was a very severe crash, with the industry suffering tens if not billions of dollars of losses in the United States alone. Also, there wasn't as much concern about proliferation from Imperial Iran at the time, at least not more than countries such as India and Pakistan.

Also, since Imperial Iran wouldn't be in a situation to design or build its own reactors, at least during the early period, might this prevent the lost generation(s) of nuclear reactors? Might Imperial Iran be a market for some of the more advanced proposals and applications being floated at the time, perhaps even purchasing a share in the reactor vendors following the crash?

Lastly, what are the odds that Imperial Iran would actually go ahead and build a nuclear arsenal, as opposed to doing some experiments? If Iran has a functioning nuclear industry and the Iranian Revolution occurs, even if it's just Bushehr (according to a 1998 report, each unit can produce 180 kilograms of plutonium per year, enough for a dozen nuclear bombs each), does it change things at all?
 

abc123

Banned
IMO, if Shah is still the ruler, he would definitly go for nuclear weapons somewhere in 80s-90s when he has technological base for that.
 
IMO, if Shah is still the ruler, he would definitly go for nuclear weapons somewhere in 80s-90s when he has technological base for that.

I've toyed with a series of events along the lines of: the Imperial regime stays in power, no Iran-Iraq war, Saddam Hussein's nuclear programme isn't disrupted by Iranian and Israeli air strikes, Iraq goes nuclear in the mid-80s, with Iran not far behind. At some point in this mess, the Saudis call in their deal with the Pakistanis, giving all three major Gulf powers nuclear weapons, and the Israeli and American governments turn to drink
 

Delta Force

Banned
Acquiring nuclear weapons in the mid-1980s would be a fairly large gamble for Imperial Iran. The United States would have to respond in some way to show the world that it is serious about non-proliferation. That could get messy given all the trade going on between the two countries in military and economic items.

Then of course there's Saudi Arabia, which could surge petroleum production to hurt their rival if things go that way. At that point it's almost the plot to The Crash of '79 by Paul Erdman.
 
I've toyed with a series of events along the lines of: the Imperial regime stays in power, no Iran-Iraq war, Saddam Hussein's nuclear programme isn't disrupted by Iranian and Israeli air strikes, Iraq goes nuclear in the mid-80s, with Iran not far behind. At some point in this mess, the Saudis call in their deal with the Pakistanis, giving all three major Gulf powers nuclear weapons, and the Israeli and American governments turn to drink

I don't think Israelis will just stand by when Iraq goes down proliferation oute. There are two problems though
-worse intel since Iranians aren't helping
-no F-16s since OTL Israel got ones slated for Iran

Then again, Iran just might give a hand and provide whatever intel they have and help.

As for Iranian nuclear weapons I think Iran has two options. Basement nuke where they have all the components and knowledge and can go nuclear in matter of months. Or Israeli approach where everybody knows they have nukes but they don't acknowledge it and everybody pretends they don't exist. Former is, IMO, much more likely.
 

Delta Force

Banned
Also, if a country is considering a weapons program the initial steps of testing materials and performing some other simple laboratory tests are easy to conceal and don't tend to attract too much controversy once revealed. Quite a few countries have produced experimental quantities of materials suitable for weapons or tested designs using computer simulations.

The more a country goes towards actually assembling a weapon though, the closer it gets to opening Pandora's Box. Being a threshold state has some advantages in that it becomes possible to acquire nuclear weapons in a short period of time, but you still have the advantages that come with not being a nuclear weapons state such as the ability to acquire materials, equipment, and knowledge easily from overseas, as well as avoid a variety of other possible embargoes or losses.
 
I don't think Israelis will just stand by when Iraq goes down proliferation oute. There are two problems though
-worse intel since Iranians aren't helping
-no F-16s since OTL Israel got ones slated for Iran

Then again, Iran just might give a hand and provide whatever intel they have and help.
The issue here is that the Iranians actually provided material support to the Israeli raid, which they probably wouldn't without the Iran-Iraq war. In fact, since if there intelligence shared was a direct result of b the failed Iranian attack on the same facility. The Israelis would do the raid with Skyhawks and Phantoms if they had to, but the political environment is different enough that the risk is much higher. If they do try, international criticism will be harsher and the Israelis may well take losses.
As for Iranian nuclear weapons I think Iran has two options. Basement nuke where they have all the components and knowledge and can go nuclear in matter of months. Or Israeli approach where everybody knows they have nukes but they don't acknowledge it and everybody pretends they don't exist. Former is, IMO, much more likely.
The way I see it, Iran wants to deter the Soviets. That's what the arms buildup was all about. To do that credibly, they need to have real weapons that the Soviets know of. Not enough to destroy the USSR, that's a big ask, but enough to make an invasion too costly to try.

That means a decent sized arsenal that's at least somewhat known. The Israeli approach eases US nonproliferation concerns, but isn't so good for prestige given a nuclear Iraq. Keeping the capability under wraps would at least avoid the Saudis joining the club, which has to be a positive.
 
Reminds me of this:

Shah_of_Iran_nuke.jpg


Iran + Nuclear Power= What could go wrong?;):rolleyes:
 
The issue here is that the Iranians actually provided material support to the Israeli raid, which they probably wouldn't without the Iran-Iraq war. In fact, since if there intelligence shared was a direct result of b the failed Iranian attack on the same facility.

It wasn't failed raid. It achieved what was ment to achieve. Which, granted, was less visualy spectacular but did significant damagein research facilities.

The Israelis would do the raid with Skyhawks and Phantoms if they had to, but the political environment is different enough that the risk is much higher. If they do try, international criticism will be harsher and the Israelis may well take losses.

That's what I ment. Odds are against Israel but I think they'll do it anyway. And seeing how it's also in Iranian interests that Iraq doesn't get nukes Iran could help.

The way I see it, Iran wants to deter the Soviets. That's what the arms buildup was all about. To do that credibly, they need to have real weapons that the Soviets know of. Not enough to destroy the USSR, that's a big ask, but enough to make an invasion too costly to try.

That means a decent sized arsenal that's at least somewhat known. The Israeli approach eases US nonproliferation concerns, but isn't so good for prestige given a nuclear Iraq. Keeping the capability under wraps would at least avoid the Saudis joining the club, which has to be a positive.

Well, Israeli approach serves against Soviets as well as they woulkd be aware it exists, justnot publicly acknowledged
 
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