Imperial Brazilian WI: The Dantas Project passes?

[Vinization]

With the abolitionist movement in Brazil growing ever more vigorous after the end of slavery in the provinces of Ceará and Amazonas, newly inaugurated prime minister Manuel Pinto de Sousa Dantas, a member of the Liberal Party, presented to the Chamber of Deputies a bill which proposed to emancipate every enslaved person over the age of 60 without any compensation to their owners, as well as the creation of "agricultural colonies" (I couldn't find a better term for that in English) whose plan was to eventually turn the former slaves into small landowners.

Naturally, the Conservative Party was absolutely livid with this proposal, as were several Liberal deputies who came from districts where slavery was still strong. Even so, the "Dantas Project", as the prime minister's bill became known, was defeated in the Chamber of Deputies by a margin of just seven votes, and when he was finally brought down by a vote of no confidence, his government lost by just two votes.

So, what if the Liberals were somehow less divided for whatever reason, and the bill passed? It'll still have to be voted on by the Senate, which was presided by the Baron of Cotegipe (a guy who voted against the Golden Law IOTL), so it'll almost certainly need at least some amendments to pass through the upper house. Dantas was completely against any sort of compensation to the slaveowners (according to the source I'm using he said the idea was monstrous), so even if the bill is watered down somewhat (probably on the bits calling for land reform) I doubt it'll be to the extent it was IOTL, with the Saraiva-Cotegipe Law.

Last but definitely not least, will this make the end of the monarchy more or less likely ITTL? The Dantas Project's success will empower the radical wing of the Liberal Party, which included guys like Ruy Barbosa.

@Aluma @ByzantineCaesar @Gukpard @John I of Brazil @Kaiser of Brazil @Taunay

 

[Taunay]

With the abolitionist movement in Brazil growing ever more vigorous after the end of slavery in the provinces of Ceará and Amazonas, newly inaugurated prime minister Manuel Pinto de Sousa Dantas, a member of the Liberal Party, presented to the Chamber of Deputies a bill which proposed to emancipate every enslaved person over the age of 60 without any compensation to their owners, as well as the creation of "agricultural colonies" (I couldn't find a better term for that in English) whose plan was to eventually turn the former slaves into small landowners.

Naturally, the Conservative Party was absolutely livid with this proposal, as were several Liberal deputies who came from districts where slavery was still strong. Even so, the "Dantas Project", as the prime minister's bill became known, was defeated in the Chamber of Deputies by a margin of just seven votes, and when he was finally brought down by a vote of no confidence, his government lost by just two votes.

So, what if the Liberals were somehow less divided for whatever reason, and the bill passed? It'll still have to be voted on by the Senate, which was presided by the Baron of Cotegipe (a guy who voted against the Golden Law IOTL), so it'll almost certainly need at least some amendments to pass through the upper house. Dantas was completely against any sort of compensation to the slaveowners (according to the source I'm using he said the idea was monstrous), so even if the bill is watered down somewhat (probably on the bits calling for land reform) I doubt it'll be to the extent it was IOTL, with the Saraiva-Cotegipe Law.

Last but definitely not least, will this make the end of the monarchy more or less likely ITTL? The Dantas Project's success will empower the radical wing of the Liberal Party, which included guys like Ruy Barbosa.

@Aluma @ByzantineCaesar @Gukpard @John I of Brazil @Kaiser of Brazil @Taunay

May I ask you where you found this? I really like studying these obscure events in Brazilian history that make for great what-ifs

 

[Aluma]

I dont think the law itself makes much of a difference, if it had came in 1880 or earlier before the death of Pedro II's heir I could see it making a difference but after it he had already grown deluded with the monarchy so it'd be just bringing the Golden Law 5 years earlier as it still set the end of slavery to take place in 1889

What I believe could and likely would save the monarchy however would be the continuation of Dantas's government by avoiding the no-confidence vote, which like you said only took 2 votes which could be butterflied away as easily as two conservatives waking up late

If his government continued to rule till at least the 1890s I see the Republic being butterflied away due to the fact Deodoro & co would have no personal reason to support the coup and his government was in good terms with Pedro II, who himself comissioned and supported the project

That means, if the institution can outlast Pedro's apathy, that Isabel would rule with support of the Liberal Party and her in turn would support their policies(likely even more radically than Pedro, as she signed the Golden Law IOTL)

This likely means the state being openly antagonistic towards the former slave owner elite, as both Isabel and Dantas - whom like you said thought even compensating them was morally monstrous - would stand against their interests

This on one hand means a "Café com Leite" Empire is butterflied away, at least in the short-medium term, due to this antagonistic relationship between the state and the elites

But that also means there would likely be a uprising much like the ones the OTL early republic suffered, more in like with the Paulista Rebellion, trying to reassert the elite's control over the state and the implementation of policies that serve their interests(proclaiming a Republic included)

However if the liberal rule is stable, I see the loyalist forces serving the government and the crown crushing it like the Old Republic did with its own share of rebellions, which could mean a Agrarian Reform is passed as result of the estabilishment turning even more radical in the short term due to the uprising, before inevitably backpedalling a bit later to reconciliate itself with what is left of these elites once the government moderates(and needs more money)

All in alll good TL material
You could call it something along the lines of "Are two votes worth a nation?" if you wanted to do something with it

 

[Aluma]

May I ask you where you found this? I really like studying these obscure events in Brazilian history that make for great what-ifs

I know you asked Vini but I found some links from a quick Google search, they're all very interesting

Spoiler: Projeto Dantas

Projeto Dantas – Wikipédia, a enciclopédia livre

pt.m.wikipedia.org

Projeto Dantas - Wikisource

pt.m.wikisource.org

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/325069363_O_Inferno_de_Dantas_O_Projeto_de_Lei_n_48_no_jornal_A_Provincia_de_Sao_Paulo_1884

Projeto levou polêmica ao Parlamento

Se, por um lado, levar o debate sobre a abolição para o âmbito legislativo ajudou a acalmar as ruas, por outro, no próprio Parlamento os ânimos se viram acirrados com a apresentação do projeto que redundou na Lei dos Sexagenários. A proposta foi responsável pela renúncia do presidente da Câmara...

www12.senado.leg.br

Projeto Dantas - História do Brasil

Texto sobre o Projeto Dantas, que pretendia acabar com a escravidão no Brasil durante o governo de D. Pedro II.

www.infoescola.com

O Projeto Dantas e o Parecer de Ruy Barbosa sobre a lei dos sexagenários

acervodigital.ufpr.br

Metadados do item: Emancipação dos escravos : o Projeto Dantas: (dos sexagenários): e o parecer que o justifica

oasisbr.ibict.br

 

[Vinization]

May I ask you where you found this? I really like studying these obscure events in Brazilian history that make for great what-ifs

I found that through here: https://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disp...publico/2015_FilipeNicolettiRibeiro_VOrig.pdf

There's also a Wikipedia article on Dantas, which is how I found out about the bill in the first place, but it's nowhere near as detailed as the article above.

 

[Vinization]

I dont think the law itself makes much of a difference, if it had came in 1880 or earlier before the death of Pedro II's heir I could see it making a difference but after it he had already grown deluded with the monarchy so it'd be just bringing the Golden Law 5 years earlier as it still set the end of slavery to take place in 1889

What I believe could and likely would save the monarchy however would be the continuation of Dantas's government by avoiding the no-confidence vote, which like you said only took 2 votes which could be butterflied away as easily as two conservatives waking up late

If his government continued to rule till at least the 1890s I see the Republic being butterflied away due to the fact Deodoro & co would have no personal reason to support the coup and his government was in good terms with Pedro II, who himself comissioned and supported the project

That means, if the institution can outlast Pedro's apathy, that Isabel would rule with support of the Liberal Party and her in turn would support their policies(likely even more radically than Pedro, as she signed the Golden Law IOTL)

This likely means the state being openly antagonistic towards the former slave owner elite, as both Isabel and Dantas - whom like you said thought even compensating them was morally monstrous - would stand against their interests

This on one hand means a "Café com Leite" Empire is butterflied away, at least in the short-medium term, due to this antagonistic relationship between the state and the elites

But that also means there would likely be a uprising much like the ones the OTL early republic suffered, more in like with the Paulista Rebellion, trying to reassert the elite's control over the state and the implementation of policies that serve their interests(proclaiming a Republic included)

However if the liberal rule is stable, I see the loyalist forces serving the government and the crown crushing it like the Old Republic did with its own share of rebellions, which could mean a Agrarian Reform is passed as result of the estabilishment turning even more radical in the short term due to the uprising, before inevitably backpedalling a bit later to reconciliate itself with what is left of these elites once the government moderates(and needs more money)

All in alll good TL material
You could call it something along the lines of "Are two votes worth a nation?" if you wanted to do something with it

Besides what you already wrote, the one thing I'm really curious about is how the Liberal Party could develop from the POD onward. This was a period of fierce internal debate for them, especially after their downfall and Cotegipe's rise to the prime ministership. From what I could find (and the article is a good source on that) the Viscount of Ouro Preto had lots of plans to reform the state (turn the Senate into a temporary office instead of a lifetime one, ending the Council of State's influence on politics, reforming the franchise and others) and a huge majority in the legislature (something like 100 out of 125 deputies for example) ready to pass them. Of course, none of this ever saw the light of the day thanks to the coup.

Dantas avoiding his OTL probably means the Liberals will want to go even further in their proposals, courtesy of Ruy Barbosa and his allies. Brazil might become a federation without the, ahem, "excesses" of the Old Republic.

 

[Aluma]

Brazil might become a federation without the, ahem, "excesses" of the Old Republic.

Basically the OTL Federative Republic under a royal coat of paint then

Fascinating

 

[Vinization]

Restarting this thread to see if I can get some more discussion on this topic, however obscure it may be.

From what I understand, the Dantas Project passing (even if watered down, as I said in the OP) means there's a good chance land reform becomes a topic of serious discussion in Brazilian political discourse. Some abolitionists stated that the end of slavery was only the beginning of a wider set of reforms, one of which was the redistribution of agricultural lands along rail lines to the former slaves' families. Should the Liberal Party back this plan to the hilt and get a big enough majority in the legislature to implement it, I think a military coup is not only possible, but likely: a large part of the elite would be disturbed by such a measure, not least because Brazil was still a very rural country at this point in history. Whether such a coup would succeed or not is another matter entirely, of course.

On the other hand, a more radical Liberal Party, which defends ideas like provincial autonomy and the tackling of various vices present in Brazilian politics at the time (such as the Council of State and a Senate whose members not only served for life, but were also appointed by the emperor) might gain the support of some people who would otherwise be republicans IOTL. These were some of their main grievances with the monarchy AFAIK, after all.

 

[saman bey]

redistribution of agricultural lands along rail lines to the former slaves' families

That wasn't done, and many of the grandkids of these enslaved ended up building directly on top of these rail lines after they were abandoned.
Ironic

 

[Aluma]

That wasn't done, and many of the grandkids of these enslaved ended up building directly on top of these rail lines after they were abandoned.
Ironic

Fight it, run from it
Fate still arrives

 

[Wendell]

A federal monarchy in Brazil is an interesting concept given the federations that developed within the British Empire historically like Canada, which predates the POD, and Australia, which does not, but has an elected upper house.

 

[holycookie]

Basically the OTL Federative Republic under a royal coat of paint then

OTL Unfortunately, the republican federation is not very federative. The capital and federal power have excessive power in things they shouldn't and weak power in things they should. But a federal empire would be interesting. I think that the survival of Dom Pedro's children would be important to strengthen the empire and the liberal league that supported the monarch. Not to mention that I would like to see how wars like the one in Paraguay would shape these princes. the heirs of the monarchs being on the front lines will probably strengthen the princes or prince who serve instead of strengthening the positivist league

From what I understand, the Dantas Project passing (even if watered down, as I said in the OP) means there's a good chance land reform becomes a topic of serious discussion in Brazilian political discourse

Factors such as the emperor's children surviving, and the strengthening of the National Guard in the face of the republicanism of the army, are important to speculate the dantas project.

 

[saman bey]

the national guard had a very interesting rank promotion system for lower ranks.

Aside from the whole ''being armed thugs and slave catchers for latifundia owners'' thing

 

[holycookie]

the national guard had a very interesting rank promotion system for lower ranks.

Maybe a detachment of the navy focusing on ground combat. Together with a larger professionalization of the national guard?

 

[Vinization]

Factors such as the emperor's children surviving, and the strengthening of the National Guard in the face of the republicanism of the army, are important to speculate the dantas project.

Another one is how Rio de Janeiro's population might react to a coup. Dantas and his allies had a lot of supporters in the streets of the capital (or at least knew how to organize them), to the point the Conservative and dissident Liberal deputies accused him of "fostering anarchy". Should a coup similar to the one that happened IOTL (which mobilized only a few hundred men) be met with angry mobs on the streets, Floriano Peixoto (or whoever else is in charge of protecting the Paço Imperial) might side with the government instead of standing aside.

 

[holycookie]

I think the best way to fix the Dantas Project or something similar would be with the survival of the emperor's children. Firstly, this strengthens the emperor's resolve, something necessary for tougher reforms. Second, you could try marriage politics with the emperor's two sons, getting the support of part of the conservative group or at least important figures who will see the importance and prestige of the family having royal blood (with the second son certainly the first child may be more difficult and marriage with some European royalty would be more interesting). Third is the establishment of the army's loyalty to the royal family if one of the emperor's sons serves in the army and becomes an important figure in the organization (especially with the Paraguayan war or something similar). So the government gets a loyal core to the imperial family which would prevent any major revolt from occurring. Conservative groups may try something like this, but this will result in defeats and the breakdown of their power for a long time.

But this alone does not solve the problem that many states have. Or it weakens regions like São Paulo, Minas Gerais, Bahia, and Pernambuco (the major states in that era). That's why a federation allowing local laws for certain things would be a good alternative allowing states to focus more internally. Interestingly, the South could be an important factor in strengthening the empire. Rio Grande do Sul (and consequently Santa Catarina) for example would be a good balance against São Paulo. Not enough to face the São Paulo giant alone but enough to weaken possible revolts. The Gauchos wanted Uruguay back, something possible depending on how the empire acted. But more local independence will do, especially in this era when the south had not begun to rise economically (The economic rise of southern Brazil began to manifest itself significantly in the late 19th and early 20th centuries). Not only that but with Argentina wanting independence from Uruguay the south will probably look to the federal government for monetary support to strengthen the local armed forces.

Should a coup similar to the one that happened IOTL (which mobilized only a few hundred men) be met with angry mobs on the streets, Floriano Peixoto (or whoever else is in charge of protecting the Paço Imperial) might side with the government instead of standing aside.

Yes, even if the army remains neutral, that is enough. The navy itself has the power to deal with revolts. You can also have a division in the army after all uprisings occurred in favor of the monarchy. The central factor in the Republicans' victory was Dom Pedro II's depression. Take that away, energize Dom Pedro with the survival of his children, and greater reforms can occur. But another factor is what the children will be like.

 

[holycookie]

Things like the transposition of the São Francisco River and moving the capital further into Brazil were things already discussed in the imperial era. But I doubt that the capital of Brazil would be in a place like the state of Goiás. In addition to the Central Plateau, other regions were considered for the construction of Brazil's new capital before the final choice. You had the south coast in the state of Santa Catarina. This region was seen as a potential location due to its maritime accessibility and milder climate. There were also considerations to locate the new capital in the interior of the state of São Paulo. This area was economically developed and well-connected, which could facilitate federal administration. Besides the Triângulo Mineiro, the region that I think is most likely.

 

[saman bey]

You had the south coast in the state of Santa Catarina.

I was reading something in a similar vein.

Seems the imperial officers in charge of immigration were a bit wary about germans in the south due to their own racial ideology.

''They are racially superior to us, if we keep too many of them in one place far from the capital, they'll break apart from us and create a powerhouse of a nation right at our doorstep!"

 

[Revalus]

Things like the transposition of the São Francisco River and moving the capital further into Brazil were things already discussed in the imperial era. But I doubt that the capital of Brazil would be in a place like the state of Goiás. In addition to the Central Plateau, other regions were considered for the construction of Brazil's new capital before the final choice. You had the south coast in the state of Santa Catarina. This region was seen as a potential location due to its maritime accessibility and milder climate. There were also considerations to locate the new capital in the interior of the state of São Paulo. This area was economically developed and well-connected, which could facilitate federal administration. Besides the Triângulo Mineiro, the region that I think is most likely.

If I recall correctly, the Marquis de Pombal thought of transferring the capital to somewhere in Minas Gerais for security reasons (he was concerned about the alarmingly rapid rise of the British Royal Navy). The Inconfidência Mineira wanted the capital to be in São João del Rei, while Ouro Preto would become a university town.

In 1827, José Bonifácio de Andrada e Silva proposed to the General Assembly of Brazil to have a new capital named Brasilia westward of the heavily populated southeastern corridor. The proposal fell through when Dom Pedro I dissolved the Assembly.

Still, the movement for a capital in the interior was strong enough to make it into the first Republican constitution. According to Juan Luis Hermida,

In the first Republican constitution promulgated on February 24, 1891, Article 3 States: “A zone of 14.400 square kilometers is to belong to the Union, in the central Plateau of the Republic, which will be demarcated in due course to establish the future capital of the Republic.”
The following year, president Floriano Peixoto, faithful to the Constitution, sent the “Exploratory Commission of the Central Plateau of Brazil”, headed by Belgian engineer and astronomer Luiz Cruls, who for an year and a half carried out studies on topography, climate, soil, geology, fauna and flora. In 1894 the mission presented a substantial report of the territory, without, however, being put into practice the transfer of the Capital.

It doesn't say where that territory is, but the article seems to imply that it's where Brasilia currently is. Can anyone else confirm or find otherwise?

Second, you could try marriage politics with the emperor's two sons, getting the support of part of the conservative group or at least important figures who will see the importance and prestige of the family having royal blood (with the second son certainly the first child may be more difficult and marriage with some European royalty would be more interesting).

I know that the Imperial family tended to look to European royalty and nobility, but what about the Cavalcanti family? They were among the earliest settlers of Colonial Brazil and has been described as the closest to royalty in Brazil that House Braganza could marry to.

 

[holycookie]

Seems the imperial officers in charge of immigration were a bit wary about germans in the south due to their own racial ideology.

The South has had "German" immigrants since the first empress of Brazil. But as a whole the mass immigration from the south was a mixture of Germans and northern Italians (other than that you had a third group which was a varied immigration from all over Europe). I've never read about the fear of German immigrants, but the concern about losing the South was real. They had lost cisplatin (Uruguay) and had to sit and talk to the Gauchos during the Farropilha revolution. So I don't think it's strange for them to be worried about a possible revolt. Especially when the other revolts of this era were crushed by the government.

''They are racially superior to us, if we keep too many of them in one place far from the capital, they'll break apart from us

I don't know why but it reminded me of the German technology supremacy meme. Now losing the south would be an ulcer for Brazil in this era. The "south" would probably be Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina (maybe something from Paraná). Firstly, because they have lost even more access to the Plata basin, which means that contact with western Brazil will have to be overland. Which is bad, because the trips took months. Secondly, they lose access to agriculture in milder climates and access to cattle production in that region which were very important in the period. The South was a major source of troops and resources for various military campaigns, the region generated the nation's cavalry. So the loss of the south while not fatal is going to be bad, to say the least.

and create a powerhouse of a nation right at our doorstep!"

I would say not the powerhouse, but a nation that destabilizes the region for sure. In addition to strengthening the control of Minas Gerais and São Paulo over the country.
There were discussions during the Farropilha revolt about unifying this region with Uruguay after the war. So we may have a serious problem in the region. Furthermore, they lose two of the 4 regions that received the most immigrants in the 19th and 20th. Taking into account that because they are independent of Brazil, they will likely gain more immigrants than in otl, in addition to being able to suck up part of the immigrants who in otl went to São Paulo and Rio. As a whole, the idea of a neighboring powerhouse is unlikely (but not impossible). But if you think that in Otl the Plata basin was unstable, with the independent "south" it will be much worse (Argentina/Uruguay is constantly experiencing civil war in this era, Paraguay has Solano Lopes in government, the new nation will want to assert itself in the region and Brazil will probably try to regain lost territory).

If I recall correctly, the Marquis de Pombal thought of transferring the capital to somewhere in Minas Gerais for security reasons (he was concerned about the alarmingly rapid rise of the British Royal Navy).

This is why the idea of the Mining Triangle is a region close to the heart of the country, but far enough away that any invading army would be unable to reach the capital. Brazil had almost gone to war with the UK and for a time had broken relations with the country so the fear was not unfounded. The choice of the region for the capital of Brazil was a bad one. I understand the idea of finishing the colonization of the mid-west, but Brasilia was not worth the investment. In the end, it was a JK ego project with an architect who, in my opinion, had a terrible taste (god how I hate Oscar Niemeyer's architecture).

I know that the Imperial family tended to look to European royalty and nobility, but what about the Cavalcanti family? They were among the earliest settlers of Colonial Brazil and has been described as the closest to royalty in Brazil that House Braganza could marry to.

for the second child perhaps, but for the first child it will be some European noblewoman, I have no doubt (maybe an Austrian/German). As a whole, the second son's marriage would be to solidify the imperial house in the face of important disputes.