Impacts of a surviving Rio Grande?

Hey Guys,

In 1840 the Republic of the Rio Grande was declared due to President Santa Anna attempting to centralize power on himself. Thus a delegation met and agreed to create a state bordering the Rio Grande that shared its name. However the man whom mainly led the military side of the rebellion Antonio Canales Rosillo agreed to abandon the Revolution to become a Brigadier-General in the Mexican Army.

However WI he didn't and the Revolution kept going? Could the Revolutionaries win, and if so what would their relationship with Texas and the United States be? Would Texas still be annexed? If so what would happen in Rio Grande, would Mexico attempt to annex it? Would America attempt to? Would we see a Mexican-American War as per OTL or not?

P.s. Sorry for posting two threads very close together, these were two ideas I had floating in my brain I needed to ask about...
 
The biggest problem is that neither Rosillo nor Llano (the one who led the political side of the rebellion) actually intended the republic to survive or achieve independence. The rebellion was just a way of sticking it to Santa Anna after he had lost Texas and was continuing to centralize power. Even if the leaders of the movement change their minds and see the independence of the three northern provinces as viable and beneficial and somehow achieve it, the republic would be in big trouble

For starters Mexico would never recognize it unless there was outside intervention. Just like it happened with Texas.

Secondly it would have a huge border conflict with Texas. The border of the Rio Grande/Bravo Rep. was not the Rio Grande/Bravo it was the Nueces River. In fact its capital, Laredo, was located north of the Rio Grande, in the territory that up until Texas extended its claim rightfully belonged to Tamaulipas. So the chance for cooperating with Texas to achieve a common goal is none existent. The Republic would have to defend its Southern border from Mexican invasion and its northern border from Texan/American infiltration.

Once Texas in annexed into the US you have a border problem with a much stronger neighbor.

The US is would not intervene in favor of the Republic, unless there is a chance of annexation later on. However popular support for any annexation beyond Texas that wouldn't help reach the Pacific would not be wide spread. Neither would the political support because you end with the possibility of having a state or two with hispanic majority that would have a border conflict with another state.
Also there is no reason for the Republic to want annexation. In OTL Monterey, Saltillo (and even Laredo) fought with much more determination against the US during the Mex-American war than any other provinces.

In the end they stood a much better chance in staying in Mexico. What the movement was really was saying "screw you" to Santa Anna and to create were free and sovereign Mexican provinces/states in a strong and united Mexican federation.
 
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