Impact on Japan if the Emperor and Imperial monarchy was dismantled following WW2

[Malone]

One of the requests of Japan to the United States upon their agreement for total surrender following WW2 was that the emperor be allowed to remain, even if only as a figure head.

The US didn't have to agree to that however and there would have been nothing Japan could do to stop that. So what if the US banished Emperor Hirohito and dismantled the imperial dynasty?

 

[Admiral Bloonbeard]

According to Gallup polls a sizable amount of Americans wanted to get rid of the emperor. If the US got rid of him, I suppose Japan might look more like South Korea, having a republican government. Could this have prevented parties like the LDP from forming?

 

[Strategos' Risk]

Bring back the Shogunate somehow and sideline the emperor again!

What if victorious Allies restore the Tokugawa Shogunate after WWII?

Just a wild idea. What if the Allies go further in punishing Japan after WWII, but instead of getting rid of the emperor altogether, they have the cockamamie plan of reinstating the shogunate as a means to check both the power of the emperor as a ceremonial head, and limit the diet's power...

www.alternatehistory.com

My last post about making it so that the shogun is actually American would be funny. Basically Japan's military would be (at least ceremonially) in the hands of a foreign general.

 

[gaitskellitebevanite]

I'm not sure the US ever seriously considered turning Japan into a Republic, after all a monarch - even a ceremonial figurehead - would provide a further bulwark against communism, and it was better to keep some of the old institutions.

There was strong pressure after the war for Hirohito to abdicate, not least from his own family who felt he should take responsibility for Japan's defeat and prevent the role of Emperor from remaining tainted. Had he done so the teenage Akihito would have become Emperor, and considering he only abdicated in 2019 he may well have broken Louis XIV's record to become the longest reigning verifiable monarch in history.

 

[Admiral Fischer]

So no Hirohito to comfort the starving people, no institution to guarantee Japan's continuation as an independent nation, no authority to order the Japanese military to surrender weapons over to the US occupation, and no legitimacy to back the post-war Japanese civilian government either.

It could work, yes. But I can't think of any potential positive outcome from this happening.

 

[PolishMagnet]

According to Gallup polls a sizable amount of Americans wanted to get rid of the emperor. If the US got rid of him, I suppose Japan might look more like South Korea, having a republican government. Could this have prevented parties like the LDP from forming?

I agree Japan would look more like South Korea, but that would more ENSURE the LDP forms and gets its monopoly on power. In fact, I can see them gradually bringing back symbols of the monarchy, if not giving Hirohito or his heir some ceremonial title that is Emperor in all but name.

So no Hirohito to comfort the starving people, no institution to guarantee Japan's continuation as an independent nation, no authority to order the Japanese military to surrender weapons over to the US occupation, and no legitimacy to back the post-war Japanese civilian government either.

It could work, yes. But I can't think of any potential positive outcome from this happening.

The same starving people who didn't want him? Polling data suggested the regular citizenry of Japan was sick of the war and had lost faith in the Empire which promised and failed to achieve victory. Just look at the massive boom in communist/socialist action in the post war period.

Don't get it twisted though, Japan would not collapse. It would likely be just as stable, but it wouldn't have the emperor. One party, likely the LDP or a similar party, would hold a monopoly and keep the country running as always.

 

[Admiral Fischer]

The same starving people who didn't want him? Polling data suggested the regular citizenry of Japan was sick of the war and had lost faith in the Empire which promised and failed to achieve victory. Just look at the massive boom in communist/socialist action in the post war period.

This is false, plain and simple. Not only the 1946 election shows the supposed 'massive boom in communist/socialist action' was hollow, but especially as far as the Socialist Party is concerned, the party's leadership which was composed of pre-war socialists included a lot of former military collaborators, starting with Asanuma Inejiro of the 1960 assassination fame, Nishio Suehiro, Hirano Rikizo, Miyake Shoichi, and on. There's a reason why they initially wanted to invite a militarist political icon Tokugawa Yoshichika as the party chairman. Being socialist did not meant they were in favor of declaring a republic.

Don't get it twisted though, Japan would not collapse. It would likely be just as stable, but it wouldn't have the emperor. One party, likely the LDP or a similar party, would hold a monopoly and keep the country running as always.

Unlikely.

 

[PolishMagnet]

This is false, plain and simple. Not only the 1946 election shows the supposed 'massive boom in communist/socialist action' was hollow, but especially as far as the Socialist Party is concerned, the party's leadership which was composed of pre-war socialists included a lot of former military collaborators, starting with Asanuma Inejiro of the 1960 assassination fame, Nishio Suehiro, Hirano Rikizo, Miyake Shoichi, and on. There's a reason why they initially wanted to invite a militarist political icon Tokugawa Yoshichika as the party chairman. Being socialist did not meant they were in favor of declaring a republic.


Unlikely.

Okay, I'll concede that I definitely overplayed the popularity of anti-monarchism in postwar Japan, but why do you believe it's unlikely for Republican Japan to be stable?

 

[Admiral Fischer]

Okay, I'll concede that I definitely overplayed the popularity of anti-monarchism in postwar Japan, but why do you believe it's unlikely for Republican Japan to be stable?

I said "Unlikely" mainly because I don't think there would be a conservative merger to form a LDP-equivalent. The monarchy issue is going to be a social dividing issue between those who are willing to accept the fait accompli, and those who refuse to accept the legitimacy of the new state - there is zero chance a Republican constitution passing down through the Imperial Diet nor a full abolition of monarchy passing the referendum, it's always going to be a forced decision or via a voting fraud.

 

[ranoncles]

Weimar.....

 

[PolishMagnet]

I said "Unlikely" mainly because I don't think there would be a conservative merger to form a LDP-equivalent. The monarchy issue is going to be a social dividing issue between those who are willing to accept the fait accompli, and those who refuse to accept the legitimacy of the new state - there is zero chance a Republican constitution passing down through the Imperial Diet nor a full abolition of monarchy passing the referendum, it's always going to be a forced decision or via a voting fraud.

Don't you think there'd be a compromise somewhere? That's where I envisioned imperial symbols coming back and a ceremonial (meaningless) role granted to Hirohito or Akihito.

Weimar.....

Oh please, the situations are very different. Compare the perception of the Kaiser to that of the Tennou. Not to mention the difference in popularity of communism.

 

[Sceonn]

Japanese people will quickly realize it's in their best interest to get on with the program. Removing the Emperor would also remove a great portion of the Pre-Defeat political class so the newer generation of leaders will start completely under American influence. You'll get some terrorism after starving stops being an issue, but nothing a Rhee-esque purge of the Right Wing couldn't solve with complete American backing. An injection of capital from the Korean War will take care of the rest

 

[CalBear]

Frankly it would have been a Charlie Foxtrot of epic proportions, at least before the mid-late 1950s.

1945 Japan would have turned into the sort of low intensity conflict that drags on forever. There were LOTS of people in Japan who were ready willing, and more than able to put together a really nasty resistance movement, muck of Japan is terrain that is favorable to asymmetrical warfare, and the Soviets are only 100 miles away with an eye on expanding the Revolution (or at least trying up the U.S. in a draining long term catfight).

The Allies needed Hirohito as a stabilizer.

 

[Resurgam]

Frankly it would have been a Charlie Foxtrot of epic proportions, at least before the mid-late 1950s.

1945 Japan would have turned into the sort of low intensity conflict that drags on forever. There were LOTS of people in Japan who were ready willing, and more than able to put together a really nasty resistance movement, muck of Japan is terrain that is favorable to asymmetrical warfare, and the Soviets are only 100 miles away with an eye on expanding the Revolution (or at least trying up the U.S. in a draining long term catfight).

The Allies needed Hirohito as a stabilizer.

Which also explains the difference the US took in democratizing West Germany vis a vis Japan...

 

[CalBear]

Which also explains the difference the US took in democratizing West Germany vis a vis Japan...

Pretty much. The Allies had steamrolled every inch of the Reich effectively obliterating their military and demonstrating to much of the population that the Nazis had brought only ruin in their 12 years of rule.

Japan surrendered without any combat landings on the primary Home Islands. There were millions of trained men, millions of weapons, and an entirely different view of the Emperor (with an overwhelming percentage quite literally viewing him as god, although the Shinto concept of "god" is not exactly what is seen in Western religions). The Japanese population actually obeyed Hirohito, even the "Last Standers" either fell into line or committed suicide in one manner or another after the Radio Broadcast. Without that?

Well, the last known Japanese soldier, who was out of contact and did not hear the Emperor's broadcast, surrendered in 1974. In the Philippines. Imagine what would have happened at home.

 

[Malone]

Pretty much. The Allies had steamrolled every inch of the Reich effectively obliterating their military and demonstrating to much of the population that the Nazis had brought only ruin in their 12 years of rule.

Japan surrendered without any combat landings on the primary Home Islands. There were millions of trained men, millions of weapons, and an entirely different view of the Emperor (with an overwhelming percentage quite literally viewing him as god, although the Shinto concept of "god" is not exactly what is seen in Western religions). The Japanese population actually obeyed Hirohito, even the "Last Standers" either fell into line or committed suicide in one manner or another after the Radio Broadcast. Without that?

Well, the last known Japanese soldier, who was out of contact and did not hear the Emperor's broadcast, surrendered in 1974. In the Philippines. Imagine what would have happened at home.

Would a full land invasion have been necessary if the US kept doping atomic bombs on the cities? Apparently Truman was this close to dropping them on Tokyo and Kyoto before the Japanese finally accepted the surrender.

The emperor was nervous the imperial palace would be next which is one the reasons he did surrender. The Japanese got faulty information from a tortured American solider that the US had 100 atomic bombs ready.

Even if the emperor encouraged them I can't see how many starving out of supply Japanese would have the will to fight in semi-atomic wastelands?

 

[CalBear]

Would a full land invasion have been necessary if the US kept doping atomic bombs on the cities? Apparently Truman was this close to dropping them on Tokyo and Kyoto before the Japanese finally accepted the surrender.

The emperor was nervous the imperial palace would be next which is one the reasons he did surrender. The Japanese got faulty information from a tortured American solider that the US had 100 atomic bombs ready.

Even if the emperor encouraged them I can't see how many starving out of supply Japanese would have the will to fight in semi-atomic wastelands?

The Japanese surrender was really the result of a triple combination. First was Hiroshima. Next was the Soviet declaration of war (which had profound psychological impact on the Japanese government since they had convinced themselves that they could get the Soviets, of all people, to broker a deal with the Allies), followed by Nagasaki.

The triple whammy gave the faction in the government an opportunity to ask the Emperor to make a decision (which was one of those "one in a blue moon" events) and he chose peace. Even then their was a serious attempt to prevent the surrender broadcast from going forward that came within one ballsy officer of working..

The Japanese had a surprisingly good estimate of the number of Special Weapons available to the U.S. The head of the Japanese Bomb program, such as it was, told the government that the Americans couldn't have more than four or five bombs (the actual number was four) at the time. Since any American who had been captured would have had no bloody clue about the Bomb, (the crew that DROPPED the weapon were also given a general brief the night before the mission) and woudn't have even been able to describe the weapon's effects, anything he might have said would have shone brightly of Bullshit.

 

[Malone]

The Japanese surrender was really the result of a triple combination. First was Hiroshima. Next was the Soviet declaration of war (which had profound psychological impact on the Japanese government since they had convinced themselves that they could get the Soviets, of all people, to broker a deal with the Allies), followed by Nagasaki.

The triple whammy gave the faction in the government an opportunity to ask the Emperor to make a decision (which was one of those "one in a blue moon" events) and he chose peace. Even then their was a serious attempt to prevent the surrender broadcast from going forward that came within one ballsy officer of working..

The Japanese had a surprisingly good estimate of the number of Special Weapons available to the U.S. The head of the Japanese Bomb program, such as it was, told the government that the Americans couldn't have more than four or five bombs (the actual number was four) at the time. Since any American who had been captured would have had no bloody clue about the Bomb, (the crew that DROPPED the weapon were also given a general brief the night before the mission) and woudn't have even been able to describe the weapon's effects, anything he might have said would have shone brightly of Bullshit.

It's true that at the time of the initial bombings the Atomic bomb supply was low but the US at that point feared nothing offensively from Japan. Would the US not simply ramp up production of bombs into the fall and beyond? and while the surplus Atomic bombs were being manufactured you'd still have the unimpeded carpeted bombing raids with the conventional bombs.

It wouldn't be too long before an atom bomb could be dropped on Tokyo and the imperial palace which would have been likely psyche breaking for the Japanese people who still viewed the emperor as a deity. Almost like a god being killed by a flash of light.

 

[CalBear]

It's true that at the time of the initial bombings the Atomic bomb supply was low but the US at that point feared nothing offensively from Japan. Would the US not simply ramp up production of bombs into the fall and beyond? and while the surplus Atomic bombs were being manufactured you'd still have the unimpeded carpeted bombing raids with the conventional bombs.

It wouldn't be too long before an atom bomb could be dropped on Tokyo and the imperial palace which would have been likely psyche breaking for the Japanese people who still viewed the emperor as a deity. Almost like a god being killed by a flash of light.

Even if, and I'll stress the if, the Japanese were forced to surrender after the sort of mass use of early generation Bombs, that would not change, even a tiny bit, the reality that the U.S. would have faced an insurgency that would have lasted for decades.

 

[Strategos' Risk]

How did the Emperor, who was often simply overseeing the plans of the prime minister and the military factions, become so highly regarded by the Showa period? Why was his legitimacy so paramount? If a republic would be too weak and easily rejected by the people, what could serve in lieu of that? A different emperor? Military rule by compliant leaders taking orders from the American occupation? Ba-ba-ba-bakufu reinstated?