Impact of Zyuganov winning in 1996

samcster94

Banned
We all have debates about Yeltsin maybe rigging the election or not, but somehow, he loses. This is about his impact if he is in charge in Russia. What does this mean for the U.S. elections that year, or for any country bordering this alternate Russia?? Putin is a rather minor figure in TTL
 
Yeltsin's economic policies, and the corruption they engendered and/or stimulated, had unimaginably horrible effects on Russia. If Zyuganov sticks with China-style communism rather than a full-blown return to the centrally planned economy, he'll step onto the toes of the oligarchs and he'll have to crush them. In doing so, however, he'll be able to prevent the near total collapse of the Russian economy. He won't magically be able to bring about economic growth in the late 1990s, but instead of collapse we'll get stagnation which is still better. Assuming he's halfway competent, Russia will become an economy that isn't just reliant on oil and gas exports.

The next questions/issues are:
1. Will Zyuganov return Russia to a one party state, or will he allow other political parties to exist (even if only for show, like Putin does).
2. The most glaring internal issue is Chechnya. The Chechens will be lucky if the restored communists are as 'nice' as Putin. The embarrassment caused by the First Chechen War requires a redress restoring Russia's reputation ASAP.
3. How will he respond to the major foreign policy challenges of the mid to late 1990s and early 2000s, such as for example the former country of Yugoslavia and 9/11 (assuming Bin Laden continues on schedule)?
4. Will he seek a USSR 2.0? If so, how will he go about it?

I can theorize, but I know too little about Zyuganov to provide any certainties. Russia has every potential to become as confrontational as it is today, if not more, at least a decade early. That'll have a serious impact on how the Cold War is viewed today. In Russia, the period between the end of communism in 1991 and its restoration in 1996 could very well be seen as a brief interregnum, with the communists construing all the the non-communist parties and figures as fascists, bourgeois capitalists and nationalist separatists. That story will do particularly well if the communists put an end to the chaos of the early 1990s. They couldn't do worse than Yeltsin if they tried. In the West, the 1989-'96 period will likely be seen as the Cold War's halftime. The final great irony could be that Putin, as head of the KGB, still winds up in charge of Russia somehow.
 
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Deleted member 14881

Could Zyuganov's victory lead to a red wave across some parts of the CIS? I can't see an immediate reinvasion of Chechnya since they signed a ceasefire that year, but I can see a second Chechen war breaking out in 1998. Does this butterfly away the Russian financial crisis of 1998?
 
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Could Zyuganov's victory lead to a red wave across some parts of the CIS?

There was a TL a while back that attempted to construct a scenario where a Zyuganov victory leads to Russia reconstructing the USSR, consisting of (I think) Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan. Scarlet over the Kremlin or something like that. Got discontinued early on, unfortunately.

But yeah, a newly communist Russia might decide that it would prefer the Near Abroad to join them, if not yet in a New Soviet Union, then at least in red camaraderie. Russia would, similar to OTL, probably use it’s intelligence services to promote pro-communist parties across the Former USSR and abroad.
 
There was a TL a while back that attempted to construct a scenario where a Zyuganov victory leads to Russia reconstructing the USSR, consisting of (I think) Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan. Scarlet over the Kremlin or something like that. Got discontinued early on, unfortunately.

But yeah, a newly communist Russia might decide that it would prefer the Near Abroad to join them, if not yet in a New Soviet Union, then at least in red camaraderie. Russia would, similar to OTL, probably use it’s intelligence services to promote pro-communist parties across the Former USSR and abroad.

Reuniting Russia and Belarus will happen at the very least, with nobody to back Belarus up Lukashenko being promised some very nice position in the resurgent communist regime. Putin will move on to a leadership position if he does as well as head of the KGB as head IOTL. If Lukashenko continues on his OTL anti-corruption/crime fighting measures (that include gathering dirt on everybody, in Belarus at least, and using it against them) he could easily become the next head of the KGB while Putin becomes Secretary General of the party and/or Premier.
 
Folks, I said this before in another thread very recently, I will say it again here: Putin was not destined for anything, except to be another dipshit KGB colonel who got a job in the security forces after the collapse because that is all he knew to do and had no life skills beyond it. His ascendancy was due to Yeltsin's quirks and him being in the right place at the right time. I know Bajorans believe you make your own luck, but Stepashin had as much potential as Putin and probably had more brains as well at one point.

Zyuganov would not have been allowed to win. It's as simple as that, in my view. Yeltsin's victory in '96 was a snow-job. If it was not fixed, it was not for lack of trying. Every national TV channel in Russia ran stories on him running at the exclusion of virtually every one else. The government channels hailed his "comeback," and the TV stations that were owned by the oligarchs all sang praises of Yeltsin. The poor dumb Western hacks in Moscow did their job as well, rolling out cliches and treating Yeltsin's campaign as a man on the cusp of reform if he only gets a bit more time in the office. Clinton's college buddy and author of the laziest hack book on Russia I had ever read ("The Russia Hand") carried some water, too, making sure the political interests in the West pretended Yeltsin was a decent democrat in need of support, which he wasn't in '96, but the other options were rather appalling.

For Zuyganov to have won would have required Yeltsin to truly and utterly piss off enough oligarchs (or Gusinsky by himself) that they could rationalize working a deal with the refried nostalgia act of Comrade Zee. Considering the ambitious politicians all had left the Communist Party and stuck to the coat-tails of Yeltsin and his rotating cast of Prime Ministers, Zee had no one in his kitchen cabinet who could have brokered that deal been treated with a straight face. Zee would have to be less of himself to do such a deal, and anyone who has watched that moon faced Pagliacci sing his "Vesti La Giubba" knows his range goes from Brezhnev-Lite to Brezhnev-Coors-Light.

There would also had to have been an agreement with the military. Here Zee would have to cut a deal with Lebed. But Lebed was an odd cat and he would have only cut a deal if he knew for a fact that Yeltsin was doomed and he (Lebed) would not have gotten the prize. If the first part of the previous sentence was proven true, then the second part would have been very much up in the air, because Lebed could have gotten the moderates that Zee never would have gotten. This is the crux of the problem as I see it, in any scenario that favors Zee, Lebed is the beneficiary of the same issues that would have helped Zee and he could potentially make a much finer meal out of it than the communist clown.

The gangsters would also have been mollified. Not the tattooed freaks running jails and killing people for welshing on cards debts, though they too would require some kind of sop, but the new breed of mob actually making money, whose foot soldiers wore tracksuits with chains and whose leaders bought double breasted Armani suits because that's what John Gotti wore on his way to arraignment. These "bandits" would need assurances that racketeering would not be interrupted in an unacceptable way. Oh, to be sure, some ethnic gang full of kids with olive skin who hijack cars and beat up people at street markes would need cracking down on, Comrade, but us decent pale Russians have businesses to run and bankers to murder here. Can't interrupt that, can you?

But even an in with the mob, the army and some of the oligarchs would not have been enough. For the mid-major old guard in the KGB too would require a seat at the table. They were never too warm on Yeltsin, but they didn't fancy backing a loser. That much they had drilled into their heads, watching those in the security forces who committed themselves to the political causes a trifle too much lose their way and their income when backing losers. These "silovki" wanted to back a winner, but still beat their chest for a stronger Fatherland. Putin was but one part of an entire generation of these small folk, with Stepashin being another. They would need an assurance that Zee was winning in order to back him and help stop some of the snow-job that Yeltsin was pulling.

But that would still not be enough. You would also have to deal with the West. Here Zee, if he had a clue - and he did not, he really, really did not, because everyone with a clue was too busy making money for the new overlords - could have burnished his credentials by conversing with foreign leaders and being the Leader of the Opposition. The trouble with Zee is that if he had that sentence read out to him by one of his minions in '96, he would nod sagely and go get his picture taken with Muammar Gaddafi, and then be confused by why some people would react badly to that.

For the final act here, I would have somebody hit Zhirinovsky over the head with a snow shovel a month before the election and for Zee to speak in his Jim Ross Owen Hart voice at his next press conference that dark forces of NATO and United States and possibly Illuminati were gunning for honorable opponent Vladimir Wolfovich and speak of an admiration for his "patriotism." Without the clown-prince of fascism to siphon off popular dissent, Zee might have picked up the votes there.

And after all that, we might get Zyuganov as the winner, or we might not have, because short of Yeltsin chainsawing three rabbis on Purim in a synagogue, there was no way Berezovsky was switching sides, and even with the dead rabbis, he could justify sticking by Yeltsin. And with Berezovsky on Yeltsin's side... it'd be rough going, even with all the forces I have given Zee. Gusinsky would be the counterweight, but Berezovsky in '96 was on the level of Lee Atwater in '88, if you were not afraid of him, you were a fool.
 
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Deleted member 14881

So, short of divine intervention and a brain transplant Zyuganov has no chance of being Russian President? Stepashin would be a interesting choice for a Post-Yeltsin President, but I thought he was too pacifist with the Chechens to be Yeltsin's successor? @Greg Grant
 
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Reagan's legacy would be a lot less popular, as he would have tripled the national debt, gutted the welfare state, and also fail at ultimately bringing down the Soviet Union. It was his tremendous foreign policy successes (as well as his optimism lifting up the nation) that makes him so beloved by millions of Americans even to this day.
 
So, short of divine intervention and a brain transplant Zyuganov has no chance of being Russian President? Stepashin would be a interesting choice for a Post-Yeltsin President, but I thought he was too pacifist with the Chechens to be Yeltsin's successor? @Greg Grant
Yeah, I do not think Zee had a chance. Stepashin had a chance, but came along a trifle too early. "Who Would Replace Yeltsin?" was a game too many people played for Yeltsin's liking. And if someone got too close to the top of the polls as the obvious choice, he'd kneecap them. That was Stepashin's trouble. His other problem was that he thought of the post-Yeltsin future too much and not enough to keep the old man and his inner circle happy while the old boy was still breathing. The Chechen thing was just an excuse, Stepashin's true sin was not showing enough commitment in keeping the heat off Yeltsin's pals when Primakov was fixing to round 'em up for corruption. Stepashin was sitting on the fence, as he wanted to make sure he could get along with Primakov after Yeltsin was gone, but Yeltsin stuck around long enough to put a hurt on him for being too forward thinking.

Stepashin absolutely was the dove in the Chechen conflict, but that was because in his capacity as the head of security forces and his various roles in the Ministry of the Interior he had access to real facts and the figures and knew such as war would be a disaster, as he defined it. He thought going into Chechnya without a clear military objective was asking for trouble. Here too he overplayed his hands, being seen as too slavish to the Chechen neighbors and wining and dining monsters that were almost impossible to make into something other than what they were.

The guy I see as the being capable of kicking Yeltsin to the curb was Alexander Lebed. That he sold out in '96 was not shocking, that he sold out for so little was what was depressing to the people around him. He went from being The Guy, to being seen as just another politician trying to get to the pay window. Lebed had an aura about him. He could have been the Pinochet of Russia.
 

Agreed. The game was rigged against Z to the maximum extent possible. To quote Medvedev:

We all know that Boris Nikolaevich Yeltsin did not win in 1996.

IMO the only thing that would give Z any chance would be if Yeltsin's OTL heart attack killed him. What would most likely have happened in that event would be Yeltsin's backers switching to Lebed and Lebed winning, but it would at least give Z some kind of opening.
 

Deleted member 14881

Yeah, I do not think Zee had a chance. Stepashin had a chance, but came along a trifle too early. "Who Would Replace Yeltsin?" was a game too many people played for Yeltsin's liking. And if someone got too close to the top of the polls as the obvious choice, he'd kneecap them. That was Stepashin's trouble. His other problem was that he thought of the post-Yeltsin future too much and not enough to keep the old man and his inner circle happy while the old boy was still breathing. The Chechen thing was just an excuse, Stepashin's true sin was not showing enough commitment in keeping the heat off Yeltsin's pals when Primakov was fixing to round 'em up for corruption. Stepashin was sitting on the fence, as he wanted to make sure he could get along with Primakov after Yeltsin was gone, but Yeltsin stuck around long enough to put a hurt on him for being too forward thinking.

Stepashin absolutely was the dove in the Chechen conflict, but that was because in his capacity as the head of security forces and his various roles in the Ministry of the Interior he had access to real facts and the figures and knew such as war would be a disaster, as he defined it. He thought going into Chechnya without a clear military objective was asking for trouble. Here too he overplayed his hands, being seen as too slavish to the Chechen neighbors and wining and dining monsters that were almost impossible to make into something other than what they were.

The guy I see as the being capable of kicking Yeltsin to the curb was Alexander Lebed. That he sold out in '96 was not shocking, that he sold out for so little was what was depressing to the people around him. He went from being The Guy, to being seen as just another politician trying to get to the pay window. Lebed had an aura about him. He could have been the Pinochet of Russia.

So, if Stepashin manages to do that he could become the next President, and what position could Lebed get when he sold out that wouldn't alienate his supporters? Interior Minister or something bigger? A Russian Pinochet sounds interesting, more tyrannical than Putin or more anti-communist?
 
We all have debates about Yeltsin maybe rigging the election or not, but somehow, he loses. This is about his impact if he is in charge in Russia. What does this mean for the U.S. elections that year, or for any country bordering this alternate Russia?? Putin is a rather minor figure in TTL
Longterm there might be less corruption combined with more a more authorian state.
 
Yeah, I do not think Zee had a chance. Stepashin had a chance, but came along a trifle too early. "Who Would Replace Yeltsin?" was a game too many people played for Yeltsin's liking. And if someone got too close to the top of the polls as the obvious choice, he'd kneecap them. That was Stepashin's trouble. His other problem was that he thought of the post-Yeltsin future too much and not enough to keep the old man and his inner circle happy while the old boy was still breathing. The Chechen thing was just an excuse, Stepashin's true sin was not showing enough commitment in keeping the heat off Yeltsin's pals when Primakov was fixing to round 'em up for corruption. Stepashin was sitting on the fence, as he wanted to make sure he could get along with Primakov after Yeltsin was gone, but Yeltsin stuck around long enough to put a hurt on him for being too forward thinking.

Stepashin absolutely was the dove in the Chechen conflict, but that was because in his capacity as the head of security forces and his various roles in the Ministry of the Interior he had access to real facts and the figures and knew such as war would be a disaster, as he defined it. He thought going into Chechnya without a clear military objective was asking for trouble. Here too he overplayed his hands, being seen as too slavish to the Chechen neighbors and wining and dining monsters that were almost impossible to make into something other than what they were.

The guy I see as the being capable of kicking Yeltsin to the curb was Alexander Lebed. That he sold out in '96 was not shocking, that he sold out for so little was what was depressing to the people around him. He went from being The Guy, to being seen as just another politician trying to get to the pay window. Lebed had an aura about him. He could have been the Pinochet of Russia.
Was Alexander Lebed fond of helicopters?
 
He did die in an helicopter crash when he was governor of Krasynoyarsk Krai in 2002.
I was not aware of that. I was thinking of something more like this.
 

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We all have debates about Yeltsin maybe rigging the election or not, but somehow, he loses. This is about his impact if he is in charge in Russia. What does this mean for the U.S. elections that year, or for any country bordering this alternate Russia?? Putin is a rather minor figure in TTL

So far as the US elections are concerned, it is obviously an embarrassment for Clinton, and the GOP will try to exploit it ("because of the Clinton administration's incompetence, the Communists are back in control of Russia") but while it may cut into Clinton's margin of victory, I don't see it by itself defeating Clinton unless Zyuganov in his first few months of office tries some (IMO unlikely at this stage) military adventurism--and even then probably only if it's outside the borders of the former USSR...
 

samcster94

Banned
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_Russian_financial_crisis
It's highly unlikely that Zyuganov would be able to solve the crisis or take control of the media quickly enough to keep his popularity from falling, he might even be impeached, even if he survives in 2000 "right-wing" candidate surely wins.
Lebed, Rutskoy, etc??? I just can't see Putin have anything to do with this alternate Russia except as an obscure politician in St Petersburg.
 
IMO the only thing that would give Z any chance would be if Yeltsin's OTL heart attack killed him. What would most likely have happened in that event would be Yeltsin's backers switching to Lebed and Lebed winning, but it would at least give Z some kind of opening.
That is probably how it would play out. Lebed had a chance to really take the reins, but it all went sideways for him.

So, if Stepashin manages to do that he could become the next President, and what position could Lebed get when he sold out that wouldn't alienate his supporters? Interior Minister or something bigger? A Russian Pinochet sounds interesting, more tyrannical than Putin or more anti-communist?
I think he would have been a nationalist strongman, with scarier short-term implications, but he would have been more straightforward in his tyranny than Putin. Lebed would have made no effort to legitimize himself via any trappings of democracy.

He would have no problem being called a strongman and we would not be seeing the bending of the English language to include such awkward phrases as "Presidential republic" to describe tinpot dictators that do not wish to be called as such. Lebed would have take the title as tinpot dictator without any qualms.

His political schooling would have been Communist based on his rank and experience in the Soviet army, but I doubt he would have taken anything away from it as by that point the commissars are where you sent people who could not get things done on the battlefield but had a connected family member and no one believed in anything. His chief takeaway would have been knee-jerk anti-democratic and pro-law-and-order. He would have used some of the Communist rhetoric against the West and would have zero problems using the word "fascist" to describe any foe of Russia, past, present or future. But in his heart of hearts he would have been a fascist - a nationalist with a questionable world view of ethnicities and nationalities other than Russians, who would have no respect for the rule of law unless he was the one making the rules and decreeing laws.

The difference from Putin would have been all lack of pretense. There would be no cloying attempts at portraying himself in double-speak. If asked if he was a dictator, Lebed probably would have shrugged and said, "eh, you can call me what you want, the people in the street and in their homes know I bring law and order, and that's what matters." And the folks in the countryside would have loved him for it, and the intellectuals in St. Pete and Moscow would have been horrified.

Lukashenko would have been embraced, and Belarus would have been integrated into some kind of alliance even closer than what Russia and Belarus have now. While Ukraine would have been given carrot and stick to get it in line. There would be no hybrid war there, Lebed would have just backed to the hilt his preferred candidate and then if he did not get his way - send in tanks. There would have been no little-green-men or cloak-and-dagger bullshit. There would be Russian soldiers in Russian uniforms marching down Donbass as Lebed would have thundered about liberation at hand.

Was Alexander Lebed fond of helicopters?
Oh Lebed was of the old school, he'd probably think using helicopters on dissidents would be a horrendous misuse of fuel. "Boys, boys, that Chilean shit might have worked in them South American countries, but this is here is Birth Mother Russia. Just put up against a wall, will you. All right, what's next on the agenda?"

Lebed, Rutskoy, etc??? I just can't see Putin have anything to do with this alternate Russia except as an obscure politician in St Petersburg.
In this universe, Putin is head of security for a St. Petersburg governor, with dreams one day of hopefully getting that job, or being sent off to be the satrap of Kaliningrad.
 
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