Impact of South Africa Going Communist

The issue was not that they would not be accepted but how the western world be able to handle that many refugees in a short period of time. How that would impact countries like Canada, Australia, New Zealand. Even UK and USA would struggle to process and assimilate that many people.

And the domestic political implications would be very interesting. The white refugees would be AT LEAST as anti-Communist as the Vietnamese Boat People, with a not-so-subtle overlay of white-supremacy. They're probably not gonna be voting for anyone to the left of Jesse Helms.

(For the record, I know white South Africans, and they're not generally like what I describe above. But, of course, we're talking about a time-line where they're fleeing Communism.)
 

Lusitania

Donor
And the domestic political implications would be very interesting. The white refugees would be AT LEAST as anti-Communist as the Vietnamese Boat People, with a not-so-subtle overlay of white-supremacy. They're probably not gonna be voting for anyone to the left of Jesse Helms.

(For the record, I know white South Africans, and they're not generally like what I describe above. But, of course, we're talking about a time-line where they're fleeing Communism.)

Of the 5 plus million whites in south Africa over 500,000 were either Portuguese and of Portuguese descendance. The Portuguese in the 1980s and 1990s had developed a plan to evacuate the Portuguese from South Africa in such an eventuality of it falling to the communist.
 

kernals12

Banned
And the domestic political implications would be very interesting. The white refugees would be AT LEAST as anti-Communist as the Vietnamese Boat People, with a not-so-subtle overlay of white-supremacy. They're probably not gonna be voting for anyone to the left of Jesse Helms.

(For the record, I know white South Africans, and they're not generally like what I describe above. But, of course, we're talking about a time-line where they're fleeing Communism.)
There's some precedent. The Whites who fled Algeria after that country's independence turned Southern France sharply to the right.
 
Afrikaners migrate to Botswana. Some come to the us, forming, a solid conservative bloc.
The anti communist mixed race people work with the British and form a Taiwan style government in Swaziland.
 

Lusitania

Donor
Afrikaners migrate to Botswana. Some come to the us, forming, a solid conservative bloc.
The anti communist mixed race people work with the British and form a Taiwan style government in Swaziland.

Ok we talking about 5 million + whites, plus hundreds of thousands of Indians. Added to that tens of thousands of anti-communist blacks The region cannot handle that level of migration. Plus no neighboring country want opposition south Africans in their country for fear starting military and economic conflict with South Africa.

No my thinking is US take in half of whites mostly Africaners, with both Canada, Australia and new zealand able to handle about 1 million. With Britain, Europe and South America taking in remaining 1 million. The Indians and blacks going towards Canada, Britain and Europe primarily.

Could we end up with a East / west South Africa? One part communist other non? Would ANC accept that?
 

Lusitania

Donor
So how are you moving Millions of people from South Africa to Europe or North America in a short period of Time ?

The transporting of the millions of people could be accomplished with ships, planes being used. Thousands would flee to neighboring countries and evacuated from there. The issue would be preventing humanitarian catastrophe and integrating and accommodating them.
 
Ok we talking about 5 million + whites, plus hundreds of thousands of Indians. Added to that tens of thousands of anti-communist blacks The region cannot handle that level of migration. Plus no neighboring country want opposition south Africans in their country for fear starting military and economic conflict with South Africa.

No my thinking is US take in half of whites mostly Africaners, with both Canada, Australia and new zealand able to handle about 1 million. With Britain, Europe and South America taking in remaining 1 million. The Indians and blacks going towards Canada, Britain and Europe primarily.

Could we end up with a East / west South Africa? One part communist other non? Would ANC accept that?
The key is also when, the change happens. if Subokwe can survive perhaps he can be the Mandela figure in the 70's. He broke with the anc because they took aide from communists. He was a democratic socialist, who for a time, seemed to be an alternative leader.
 
Tribal conflict could also be exacerbated in this scenario. The IFP, the primary Zulu party, from when it was founded until the mid-2000s was anti-Communist, generally, and Zulus could well be seen as some kind of fifth column by a Red Pretoria.
 
Marius is correct. greater support for balakised tribal leaders , Congo style succession in many areas. Prince Buthelezi won't just vanish.
 

Lusitania

Donor
Marius is correct. greater support for balakised tribal leaders , Congo style succession in many areas. Prince Buthelezi won't just vanish.
Would this make things in South Africa worse, with a longer decline due to military conflict and tens of thousands of people fleeing both internally as well as externally. Would it make a difference or would we see a Yugoslavia collapse?
 
I imagine South African version of Gukurahundi against the Zulus is possibly then

You fuck with the Zulus at your peril. The Voortrekkers and the British Empire both learnt that the hard way.

That said, many Zulus will be part of any communist movement which takes over SA, so it would be something of a fraternal conflict.

Cape secession would also be on the cards here.
 
The more I think about it, the more incredible it becomes that South Africa could peacefully transition to black majority rule. Look at the violence that engulfed neighboring Angola and Southern Rhodesia. So, let's assume that Nelson Mandela dies in prison some time in the 1980s and the resulting outrage turns into a revolution. It's well known the ANC had far left sympathies and it seems likely that South Africa would turn toward communism. So, my question is, how does the wealthiest country in sub saharan Africa going communist impact the rest of Africa? Does it cause a domino effect?

Well you'd probably need a group besides the ANC to be in charge of the revolution. Or have the ANC's leadership change drastically. The ANC's military campaign in general was just pathetic. They were the South African equivalent of the Weathermen.
 
Why was that even thought they had large friendly bases across the border, and access to experience of other insurgencies ?

They didn't have bases close to the border though. Namibia was under SA occupation, Mozambique agreed to not house the ANC after the Nkomati Accord was signed, Botswana was basically neutral, Lesotho and Swaziland relied too much on SA, and Zimbabwe was also worried about the SA military.

MK didn't have all that much experience of insurgencies, some fought in Angola but not to any large degree.
 
They didn't have bases close to the border though. Namibia was under SA occupation, Mozambique agreed to not house the ANC after the Nkomati Accord was signed, Botswana was basically neutral, Lesotho and Swaziland relied too much on SA, and Zimbabwe was also worried about the SA military.
Couldn't they use Angola as a base to attack Namibia or was UNITA and SADF too much of a barrier

MK didn't have all that much experience of insurgencies, some fought in Angola but not to any large degree.
Couldn't the various former Angolan, Mozambican and Zimbabwean groups advise them ?
 
Of the 5 plus million whites in south Africa over 500,000 were either Portuguese and of Portuguese descendance. The Portuguese in the 1980s and 1990s had developed a plan to evacuate the Portuguese from South Africa in such an eventuality of it falling to the communist.

Interesting, do you have any source for that (i don't care if it's in portuguese)?
 
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