Impact of South Africa Going Communist

kernals12

Banned
The more I think about it, the more incredible it becomes that South Africa could peacefully transition to black majority rule. Look at the violence that engulfed neighboring Angola and Southern Rhodesia. So, let's assume that Nelson Mandela dies in prison some time in the 1980s and the resulting outrage turns into a revolution. It's well known the ANC had far left sympathies and it seems likely that South Africa would turn toward communism. So, my question is, how does the wealthiest country in sub saharan Africa going communist impact the rest of Africa? Does it cause a domino effect?
 

SSJRED

Banned
The ANC was in alliance with the communist party but was in no way communist. It was esentially a big tent party with people of all sorts of political affiliations being part of the party some of whom who had links to the communist party. Of course because of US and the UK's support for a white supremecist regieme staffed with pedophiles, the communist countries provided a great deal of support but by the 80's the communists are in decline.
You have to go all the way back to before the second world war to get a communist south africa.
The main issue was most of the leadership within the ANC was educated in the british style and represented an elite within the black community such as proffessionals and church(Nelson Mandela for example being a lawyer, very uncommon for a black man at the time). While they may have had social democratic tendencies and allied with communist party many had a suspicion of total communism.
You need to get rid of the ANC in the 1930's or have them remain a party of the elite writing useless petetions to Pretoria and London instead of resorting to civil disobedience. Perhaps then the communists could be te spearhead of the defiance campaign and this woukd result as then being the main party of Apartheid resistance in place of the ANC
 
If the situation deteriorates to the point of a prolonged civil war, wouldn't that provide the radicals, i.e. communists, a massive boon, as happened in Syria with the jihadists ?
 
The more I think about it, the more incredible it becomes that South Africa could peacefully transition to black majority rule. Look at the violence that engulfed neighboring Angola and Southern Rhodesia. So, let's assume that Nelson Mandela dies in prison some time in the 1980s and the resulting outrage turns into a revolution. It's well known the ANC had far left sympathies and it seems likely that South Africa would turn toward communism. So, my question is, how does the wealthiest country in sub saharan Africa going communist impact the rest of Africa? Does it cause a domino effect?

Since they're the main or sole U.S. supplier of chromium, vanadium, titanium and other strategic aerospace metals, the Reagan and Bush Administration will supply limitless covert aid to counter-revolutionaries.

https://www.gao.gov/mobile/products/NSIAD-88-201

This being post-Vietnam, probably no open military involvement unless the communists commit outright pyramids of Caucasian skulls stuff. Most likely just sanctions, saber rattling and CIA ops.

However, we know they have some nukes after that 1979 Vela satellite flash. If they announce it and wave them around like North Korea, that might be enough of a casus belli for Bush to start a Cape War.
 
It is probably a bit ASBs but have the Rand Revolt get to a point where they overthrow the Government. That will be very interesting because you'll have a racist communist state. After all, one of the slogans used by the strikers was: 'Workers of the world unite, and fight for a white South Africa!'

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rand_Rebellion

So, have this get out of hand, and have the establishment of a Johannesburg Soviet, which leads to the overthrow of the Smuts government. We could well have a world where the Soviets are supporting a white government in Pretoria, fighting against an ANC, which is being supported by the US.
 
The ANC was in alliance with the communist party but was in no way communist. It was esentially a big tent party with people of all sorts of political affiliations being part of the party some of whom who had links to the communist party. Of course because of US and the UK's support for a white supremecist regieme staffed with pedophiles, the communist countries provided a great deal of support but by the 80's the communists are in decline.
You have to go all the way back to before the second world war to get a communist south africa.
The main issue was most of the leadership within the ANC was educated in the british style and represented an elite within the black community such as proffessionals and church(Nelson Mandela for example being a lawyer, very uncommon for a black man at the time). While they may have had social democratic tendencies and allied with communist party many had a suspicion of total communism.
You need to get rid of the ANC in the 1930's or have them remain a party of the elite writing useless petetions to Pretoria and London instead of resorting to civil disobedience. Perhaps then the communists could be te spearhead of the defiance campaign and this woukd result as then being the main party of Apartheid resistance in place of the ANC

The ANC was pretty keen on nationalisation of mines, banks etc when it was unbanned. However, when Mandela went to Davos in 1992 Deng Xiaoping told him to abandon nationalisation and socialism. Mandela is quoted as saying: "They changed my views altogether. I came home to say: ‘Chaps, we have to choose. We either keep nationalization and get no investment, or we modify our own attitude and get investment."

So, have a butterfly, Mandela doesn't go to Davos, Deng is ill on the day he's supposed to meet Mandela, whatever, but having a more left-wing ANC in the 1990s isn't that hard.

http://rationalstandard.com/umajozi-malema-even-nelson-mandela-eventually-renounced-socialism/
 
Here's another possibility - SA going Commie in the 1940s.

http://www.politicsweb.co.za/news-and-analysis/what-if-stalin-and-df-malan-had-cut-a-deal

We must remember that the National Party was actually very suspicious of capitalism and much of its rhetoric, especially before its election victory in 1948 was not dissimilar to what we saw on the left. It is no surprise that the NP governed in coalition with the Labour party from 1924 to 1933. And it is a myth that apartheid was a form of capitalism, the free market was oppressed under apartheid.
 
Seems reasonable to conclude that communism makes South Africa a lot poorer than it is today. Probably a lot of emigration by the whites elsewhere, hostility from the US and UK and a distinct lack of foreign investment that blunts economic growth.

The problems should be readily apparently by the 2000s necessitating some kind of massive change a la Deng Xiaoping and China.
 
what happens to Rhodesia in this scenario ?

If, as the OP states, this is happening in the 1980s, then Rhodesia has become Zimbabwe, or at least Zimbabwe Rhodesia(IOW well on its way to becoming Zimbabwe).

Zimbabwe probably stays Zimbabwe(OTL, the ANC has zero interest in ousting or even taming ZANU-PF). Mugabe publically hails the South African Revolution, but privately fumes about a bunch of khruschevite running-dogs once again betraying the legacy of Uncle Joe and the Great Helmsman.
 

Lusitania

Donor
what everyone is forgetting is the hundreds of thousands (sorry millions) of whites who will be fleeing. Black communist South Africa would of made Zimbabwe under Mugabe look good. Although South Africa has large mining and manufacturing the nationalization would mean all white africans loose their property. It would mean the collapse of the currency and 20-40% drop in GDP in the first decade. The white owned big farms, big house would be confiscated to be redistributed to blacks along with their businesses. Would they be happy with only the large corporations or all white businesses.

How world handled 4 million white refugees? Plus would all blacks stay? How about those blacks who opposed ANC? What about the Indians?
 
Posadists: "Hey! Congratulations on the revolution! Any chance we could, um, borrow a few warheads? Just as a deterrent against capitalist oppressors, we swear!"

People's Revolutionary Republic of South Africa: "No! Stop contacting us."
 

kernals12

Banned
what everyone is forgetting is the hundreds of thousands (sorry millions) of whites who will be fleeing. Black communist South Africa would of made Zimbabwe under Mugabe look good. Although South Africa has large mining and manufacturing the nationalization would mean all white africans loose their property. It would mean the collapse of the currency and 20-40% drop in GDP in the first decade. The white owned big farms, big house would be confiscated to be redistributed to blacks along with their businesses. Would they be happy with only the large corporations or all white businesses.

How world handled 4 million white refugees? Plus would all blacks stay? How about those blacks who opposed ANC? What about the Indians?
Key word there is white. They'll be granted asylum in a jiffy.
 
Posadists: "Hey! Congratulations on the revolution! Any chance we could, um, borrow a few warheads? Just as a deterrent against capitalist oppressors, we swear!"

People's Revolutionary Republic of South Africa: "No! Stop contacting us."

Oh man, I forgot about the nukes. Depending on how Apartheid ends wouldn't the passing minority government rather dismantle their nukes like OTL rather than given them to a communist ANC?
 

Lusitania

Donor
Key word there is white. They'll be granted asylum in a jiffy.
The issue was not that they would not be accepted but how the western world be able to handle that many refugees in a short period of time. How that would impact countries like Canada, Australia, New Zealand. Even UK and USA would struggle to process and assimilate that many people.
 
If, as the OP states, this is happening in the 1980s, then Rhodesia has become Zimbabwe, or at least Zimbabwe Rhodesia(IOW well on its way to becoming Zimbabwe).

Zimbabwe probably stays Zimbabwe(OTL, the ANC has zero interest in ousting or even taming ZANU-PF). Mugabe publically hails the South African Revolution, but privately fumes about a bunch of khruschevite running-dogs once again betraying the legacy of Uncle Joe and the Great Helmsman.
Though at least during the 80s Mugabe was big in making himself look respectable for all the Western investors eager to do business. Remember that during OTL's South African transition Zimbabwe was held up as the way things should proceed, that you could get majority rule with dempcracy and all (conveniently ignoring Gukurahundi, but that was the opinion among Western thought leaders at the time).

Harare probably becomes a sort of intermediary between the West and Red South Africa.
 
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