Impact of no Mongol Empire

Discussion in 'Alternate History Discussion: Before 1900' started by Whiteshore, May 15, 2019.

  1. Whiteshore Defender of Myrcella Baratheon

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    In a scenario where Temujin Borjigin/Genghis Khan doesn't unite the Mongols into a united entity, dying before he could unite the Mongols, what is the impact of the Mongol Empire not being a thing? How does the world develop in a "sans Mongol Empire" scenario? What would be the main dynamics of the world if not for the Mongols?
     
  2. ArchimedesCircle Radical Groucho-Marxist

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    The impacts would be huge. No Mongols means no Sack of Baghdad, no destruction of the Abbasid Caliphate, no Timurid empire, no (or a very different) Ottoman empire... and that's just in the Middle East.
     
  3. Mort the Reaper Well-Known Member

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  4. alexmilman Well-Known Member

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    No working trade route between Europe and CA/China. Seriously different development of the Eastern Europe (Russia, Poland & Lithuania). Consolidation of the Russian state may take at least somewhat different form but the menace from the nomadic neighbors would be minimal with a possibility of an earlier expansion to Volga and the Black Sea coast.

    A distinct possibility of the surviving state based upon the South-Western Russia (Great Princedom of Galitz), which means that Lithuania may not be getting the modern Belorussia and Ukraine and there are 2 centers of the Russian consolidation instead of one. Implications are going all the way to Poland not getting these lands after creation of the PLC and a long set of the possible butterflies.

    With the Seljuk sultanates already going down the tubes, there is a chance of Georgia retaining its status of the main regional power preventing the raise of the Ottomans. OTOH, it is quite possible that Georgia would be conquered by Khwaresm (pretty much happened in OTL).

    Possibility of the "Khwaresm Empire" growing in the stable state controlling most of the CA and eventually exterminating the Caliphate (in OTL tried but failed)

    No absolutely horrible Hollywood movies about Genghis Khan (with John Wayne and Omar Sharif) and Conan's sidekick in "Conan the Barbarian" would not have name "Subotai". :)
     
  5. Georgie Washington Member

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    No Black Death (Bubonic Plague) in Europe. Without the demographic consequences of this we could see huge economic consequences, serfdom and feudalism continues to entrench itself.
     
  6. alexmilman Well-Known Member

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    It could happen anyway as long as there were some trade relations between East and West. Siege of Kaffa was not the only way to spread it into Europe.
     
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  7. Whiteshore Defender of Myrcella Baratheon

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    What about China? How would it develop sans Mongols?
     
  8. Historyman 14 Well-Known Member

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    Genghis and the Mongols didn't come out of nowhere. Mongol success was built on two thousand years of steppe history. OTL success was an long line coming out of an perfect storm of climatological, political, and luck. You could see instead of the OTL Mongol Empire, you have an Mongol Empire of only Central Asia, maybe Persia, and try for Northen China.

    Surviving Liao and Northern Song. the Liao whre a great influence on the steppe, having fortifications there and the relatively good opinion of the steppe peoples. The Jin was the ones you could blame for the rise of Genghis. Have the Liao put down Aguda/the first Jin Emperor, and everything goes back to normal.
     
  9. Hegemon of words and thoughts

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    I think it is quite likely that China would’ve remained divided to north and south. It’s true that both the Jin and Song had their troubles that aided the Mongols in their conquests, but remember that these two polities still put up perhaps the fiercest resistance to Mongol domination. Despite years of continuous warfare, the Jin state managed to survive over twenty years of it, and even held on a little after the loss of Kaifeng in Caizhou. Song, for all its reputation of weakness and inefficacy, still managed to inflict punishing naval defeats upon Yuan attacks. It was not until the loss of Xiangyang after years of continuous siege that the Song cause largely collapsed, and even the loss of Xiangyang was aided by Song belief that the city was doomed. During the time of the conquests of Jin and Song, the Mongols conquered/vassalized Khwarezm, Rus’, Central Asia, Baghdad, and Anatolia. Think about it: the sack of Baghdad occurred before the capture of Xiangyang, though Xiangyang was far closer, in geographic distance, to the Mongol homeland.

    Without such a relentless and overwhelming force, it seems the Jin and Song would be too entrenched to defeat each other. Jin attempts to conquer south of the Huai/Yangtze were utter failures, and Song attempts to conquer the north were ineffective, even with Mongol aid.

    Also, the Tanguts would likely survive. They were a tenacious bunch, but were utterly massacred when they enraged Genghis by refusing to send military support in subjugating Khwarezm.

    I’m assuming a later POD than this. The Mongols rose long after the demise of the Liao and the consolidation of the Jin.

    I would also like to comment on the interesting effects this may have on Europe: it’s definitely possible that the opening of trade routes to Europeans, added with the transmission of technologies and ideas from the east, spurred on European development at a crucial stage. Without the Mongols, who knows how this may develop?
     
  10. Mr_Fanboy Well-Known Member

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    How does the Byzantine Empire develop differently?
     
  11. SealTheRealDeal Well-Known Member

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    The black death was only one of the causes of the collapse of High Medieval Europe's massive population. There was climate change, famine, other diseases. Though there's probably a slower population decline over many disasters rather than OTL's rapid implosion.
     
  12. Historyman 14 Well-Known Member

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    Lithuania becomes Orthodox likely in this case.
     
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  13. alexmilman Well-Known Member

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    Well, not necessarily because it is lacking the Orthodox lands controlled by Galitz. Still gets some but not less than in OTL. OTOH, stronger Orthodox neighborhood may make Orthodoxy an attractive option.
     
  14. Miguel Lanius Well-Known Member

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    Its not doing good, chief, the 4th Crusade has already happened. Even if the Empire recovers, it still has to deal with a shitton of problems.
     
  15. Eivind Well-Known Member

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    A surviving Kievan Rus would be interesting. I also wonder what effect this would have on Poland, Lithuania, Hungary, the Balkans and Anatolia. The Byzantines were already in trouble, but the Ottomans were not neccessarily destined to win out against other rivals. Hungary would remain stronger. What would the effect be of this? I assume that they would not end up under the Habsburgs (they were still not particularly powerful at this time). No Mongol Empire would have a profound effect on the whole of Eurasia.
     
  16. alexmilman Well-Known Member

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    Kievan Rus was “dead” by the end of the XII century due to the joined efforts of Polovtsy and Central Russia: Great Princedom of Vladimir became the leadIng principality with Kiev demoted to the second place. People had been fleeing from the Southern lands exposed to the nomadic raids to the more secure regions and it looks like a transit traffic by the Dnieper lost most of its importance.

    What could be different without the Mongols (destruction related to the conquest is quite obvious factor but it did not necessarily played a major role in what followed):

    1. Traditional system of passing the throne to the most senior member of the family with the following reshuffling of the lesser thrones could survive for a longer period delaying effective consolidation. OTOH, in OTL for a while the Mongols had been giving throne of Vladimir in an arbitrary way based on the bribes and personal sympathies so perhaps a timeline of the father to son succession would not be too different. Of course, elevation of the princes of Moskow into the Great Pronces of Vladimir was anything but inevitable.

    2. Without a credit received in a process of fighting against the Muslim Golden Horde, Russian Orthodox Church may not get all its OTL influence making the Russian state more open to the contacts with the Catholic “West” and an absence of the self inflicted cultural isolation could produce a significant change.

    3. With Vladimir Rus being more oriented toward Volga, expansion along the river and to the East of it is more or less to be expected, which means a clash with Volga Bulgaria. Most probably, even if just by the virtue of the numbers, Bulgaria would be on a losing side. Of course one can imagine a touchy picture of a peaceful co-existence but I would not bet on it. Without the Tatar factor expansion down the Volga could happen much earlier, subject to the timetable of creation of a reasonably unified Russian state. Orientation toward Volga means a trade over Caspian Sea with whatever state is on the other side.

    4. Expansion of Lithuania in the OTL scope would be dependent upon survival of the Princedom of Galitz. In OTL it was seriously weakened by the Mongolian invasion and the following raids so, minus that factor, a lot would depend upon the internal stability of the regime(s). Involvement of the Vladimir Rus is possible but unlikely because at that period the Vladimir Rus is busy with a consolidation process. However, Lithuanian possession of Kiev and Southern Rus could be important enough for the Princes of Vladimir to interfere. How effective such an interference could be is anybody’s guess.

    5. Absence of the Golden Horde and then Khanate of the Crimea would make a lot of a difference both for Russia and Lithuania (if it ends up with the OTL borders). By the time of the Mongolian invasion Polovtsy were almost contained and probably were not getting stronger. So the whole steppe factor, which existed well into the XVIII, is not quite there and it is even possible that there would be an earlier encroachment into the steppe lands.

    6. The Ottomans, if they or their equivalent happened, are not getting the Crimeans in their armies, which could make a noticeable difference in their wars.

    7. Probably an earlier fall of the Outremer.

    8. Continued fighting between Khwaresm and Baghdad Caliphate with an unclear outcome.

    9. There is a possibility of the Vladimir Rus pushing Westward toward the Baltic coast starting with subduing Novgorod and Pskov and then pushing into Livonia (Estonia). Chances for success would greatly depend upon the timing, other players and strength of the AH Russian military system.
     
    Last edited: May 25, 2019 at 12:04 PM
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