Impact of Nazi Victory on U.S. Politics

Anaxagoras

Banned
This may have been done before, but I don't have time to search.

What might the political impact have been on U.S. politics if Germany had decisively defeated France and Britain in 1940? Assume that France is occupied as IOTL and that Britain signs an armistice that allows it to avoid serious damage.

Would this strengthen isolationist Republicans? Or would the Democrats and the internationalist Republicans benefit? Please brainstorm.
 
I would imagine a US adopting a "Fortress America" mindset with a Pacific focus, whilst arming as fast and as much as possible. Europe would just be written off as part of a New Order with whom the US would do business, but outside the US sphere of interest. When Barbarossa or its equivalent is launched, I see a lot of support for the Germans in the States, with folks buying into the Crusade against Bolshevism concept.

With no Holocaust likely, the perception of Nazi Germany in this TL would be very different to our own, being seen as a vigorous "Wave of the Future" sweeping aside the old empires and communism in the interests of civilisation.....the whole nazi propaganda worldview.

Domestic politics would certainly drift to the Right, with the US fascist organisations gaining a lot of influence. Forget civil rights for a long time.

Not a pleasant picture.
 
Or the US fights a Cold War with the Nazis. And politics would drift to the left the way politics drifted to the right during otls Cold War.
 
It would depend on how the war with Japan ended or if there never was one? I doubt America would have reverted to Isolationism, but we may have retreated into Western Hemisphere. Perhaps even the creation of an American Treaty Organization. More than likely the American Public would respond to advance of the Nazi's with the same fear towards the soviets during OTL Cold War.
 
Assume that there never was a war between America and Japan. At least, not as IOTL.
So does the US still have the Phillipines then?

I could see relations between Imperial Japan and Nazi Germany souring fairly quickly after the war- it was more of an alliance of convenience than anything else.
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
So does the US still have the Phillipines then?

Yes. Assume Russia collapsed under the German assault, so Japan goes north instead of south.

I could see relations between Imperial Japan and Nazi Germany souring fairly quickly after the war- it was more of an alliance of convenience than anything else.

Why? Neither of them threatens the strategic interests of the other.
 
Yes. Assume Russia collapsed under the German assault, so Japan goes north instead of south.

Why? Neither of them threatens the strategic interests of the other.
They do if they're Eying Each Other OVER a Rump Russia, Especially if The Soviets Feel Like Playing King-Maker ...

As for The OP, Even Wendell Willkie Supported The Lend-Lease Act ...

With The Mother and Father of All Problems Butting Heads Over Asian Russia; The Only Proper Course of Action is Going to be an Extra-Armed Neutrality, Any Party Which Supports it at All will Wind up in Ascendance!
 
I think a lot will depend on exactly how Britain was defeated, and what terms they got.

If they were decisively invaded and occupied, or surrender to very onerous conditions, I cant see them being able to put any forces into the far east. So the southern route will be AFULY temting to the Japanese. In which case the USA is almost certainly going to get involved. Unless they go for a policy of glorious isolation, which would be difficult as by then it would be pretty obviously the opposition would just get bigger and stronger over time.

If Britain got more generous terms, allowing them to keep forces (albeit maybe with some limitations), it gets more interesting. Britain will almost certainly cheat as much as possible, and it would obviously be in the USA's interests to aid this surreptitiously. Now with Britain able to be much stronger in Asia, the Japanese are more likely to go north, although this doesnt realy solve their oil issues. Possibly if Germany put pressure on the UK to supply them with oil in exchange for the Japanese attacking Russia this would make more sense.

We then have Germany and Japan in Russia, very probably with a rump soviet union between them, probably in 1942. What does the USA do now? I would guess to continue to rearm, and rearm the British empire as much as possible, but keeping a neutral/defensicve posture - ie we wont attack you, but dont try and attack us... All the while pushing the Manhatten Project as fast as possible. Once the USA has nukes, they are strong enough to attack. Whether they do would depend on how Germany and Japan have been acting the last few years. If they dont appear to be as aggressive, the USA would probably stay away from them. This seems unlikely given the leaderships that caused the war in the first place are still there, and Japan inparticular is probably still expansionist. Also if details of the holocaust have leaked out by now, it would have a big effect on US public opinion.
The rational thing for the USA to do is to nuke them and attack before they get their own nukes - the question is would public opinion go for this?
 
Tri-Polar World

Assuming I've understood the scenario correctly, there would in all probablility be a tri-polar world by the late 1940s.

I would at this point add a further caveat/assumption - either NO atomic bomb or that all three major powers have the Bomb.

So much would depend on whether the Axis powers have been expansionist or whether they have remained within the borders, if you like. One area of huge interest would be the Middle East. In some scenarios, a victorious Rommel conquers Cairo, Jerusalem and sweeps up to Baku. However, if Britain yields to a negotiated peace, the North African theatre probably wouldn't happen apart from some limited Italian efforts.

Presumably a victorious Italy/Germany would claim Malta but the British might be left with Palestine, Cyprus, Transjordan, Mesopotamia etc.

Where I'm going with this is that IF the Germans don't directly control Middle East oil, it will be a potential flashpoint for all three superpowers in the post-war world. Yes, they will all have their own sources of oil but Saudi oil would be the key to world dominance.

Back to the US and I'm not a supporter of "Fortress America" as a theory. Indeed, I think that while a modus vivendi would have to evolve between America and Germany, there would be clearer tension (initially) with Japan in the Pacific.

Would we see German efforts to undermine pro-Washington Governments in Latin America ? Could this reality's "Cuban Missile Crisis" be the election of a pro-German Government in say Columbia and an invitation to host German missiles ? Possible and plausible.

Without the impetus of war, the American economy would be behind the OTL version but would still be strong - there would, I think, be an initial shift of emphasis to the Pacific.

With no Vietnam War in this reality, that doesn't mean no American forces in combat. Would, for example, American troops intervene in Africa to prop up anti-German post-colonial Governments ? Where would South Africa be, pro-German or pro-American ?

And then we're back to the Middle East - I would imagine the Imperial remanants looking to Washington for support rather than Berlin but would Berlin back Turkey for example ?

What if, for example, a pro-German Mesopotamia invaded Kuwait in 1990 ?

America would be as involved in world affairs as in OTL but in a different way. Would the likes of JFK and George Bush Senior, without their wartime experiences, have still risen to the political summit ?

Assuming Roosevelt wins in 1940, would he still prevail in 1944 ?
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
Even Wendell Willkie Supported The Lend-Lease Act

True, but IIRC, the Republicans were split between those who basically supported Roosevelt on foreign policy and those who wanted to maintain strict isolationism.

The question I have is whether an early Nazi victory in Western Europe would increase or decrease support for isolationism in the United States.
 
True, but IIRC, the Republicans were split between those who basically supported Roosevelt on foreign policy and those who wanted to maintain strict isolationism.

The question I have is whether an early Nazi victory in Western Europe would increase or decrease support for isolationism in the United States.
It REALLY is Gonna Depend on Which Side, Embraces an Armed Neutrality First ...

The Choice is Essentially Between The Ubiquitous Fortress America, And Post-Colonial Interventionism ...

Fortress America would Probably Enjoy Support Originally, But as African Countries Begin to Assert their Independence; The Only Rational Remedy will be Indeed to Intervene!
 
I imagine that the US becomes isolationist and that the American psyche would come to see Communism and Fascism as one evil and become more libertarian out of a fear of big centralized governments.


...With no Holocaust likely, the perception of Nazi Germany in this TL would be very different to our own, ...

Why is the mass extermintion of Jews not likely in this TL?
 

JohnJacques

Banned
I imagine that the US becomes isolationist and that the American psyche would come to see Communism and Fascism as one evil and become more libertarian out of a fear of big centralized governments.

I think you're wrong. In the face of an aggressive enemy, there is centralization of power. The US will be just as militaristic as IOTL and will probably go along the same lines as OTL, no matter who the foe is.
 

General Zod

Banned
Why is the mass extermintion of Jews not likely in this TL?

Because a victorious (provided it is an early victory, or it's too late to butterfly the Final Solution) Nazi Germany, having the resources of continental Europe and Middle East and no drain from war, would not mind the expenses and effort of mass deportation. Makes it probable they will go along with original plan for the Jewish "problem", dumping them in some forlorn corner of Africa or Asia. Madagascar was the candidate, they planned to ask it in final peace settlement for this goal to one point.

True, as always with Nazi programs, there were wildly conflicting versions of same basic idea. Some wanted to work them to death in their new home, some wanted to build huge reservations under harsh SS survelliance, some wanted to deport them and then basically forget them.

Nonetheless, couterintuitively, an early Nazi victory held the potential to make the Holocaust less, not more, probable.

Not to mention the fact that had some neutral country been willing to welcome some million dirt-poor Jewish immigrants, the Nazis would have been quite happy to send them that way. Of course, forget them to bring any money or property of theirs with them (the Holocaust was also about robbing a wealthy minority). Only the clothes on their backs. Unfortunately, antisemitism was not a German exclusive before the war, by any means, and few countries were delighted to welcome some million ragged Jews. The USA, for one, had terribly restrictive (and racist) immigration laws at the time.
 
alot like OTL

Winning Sealion would've been possible with some change - almost certainly replacing Rommel with somebody really good. But beating the USSR's something else again. Hitler was human and grew more arrogant the more successful he was, and ITTL he's even more successful, so he'll be even stupider after winning Sealion.

I think it'd be very OTLish, except longer. FDR's pretty likely to win the '40 elections anyway, and he was already way anti-Nazi. France falling to Fascist aggression only strengthened his resolve, and I think it'd be the same with Britain. There's no reason to believe he'd fail to help the USSR.

Instead of focusing on Africa, I suspect the US would retake Britain first. The US had utter and complete superiority in aircraft, and Germany no carriers - they'd play the same island-hopping game they did in the Pacific OTL except in the oh-so-numerous British Isles. They'd win back Britain once they'd staged enough aircraft nearby and a certain minimal number of troops, and then do Normandy. The European war might be ended by nuclear weapons instead, since it likely woulda taken longer.
 
NOOOOOOOOOOOOO, the unmentionable sea mammal. Who says the Germans defeat Britain after Sealion? The OP doesn't. Everybody knows that was almost impossible. I'd say that a compromise peace after a disaster at Dunkirk is more likely.

After that the Germans will go on their anti-communist crusade. Because of this the Germans will get a lot of support in the US. Since Germany can buy oil they won't have fuel problems. Because Britain doesn't have to fight in Europe the Japanese will probably leave them and the US alone unless they want to feel the might of the entire Royal Navy+ the US navy. They'll go north. The Soviets will be weakened because now they are facing the entire German army and a Germany that isn't being bombed, doesn't have campaigns in Africa or the Balkans and can import the resources its needs. The USSR is screwed.

After the war the Americans will find that they are in a tripolar world. The USA, the Japanese Empire and Germany are the new superpowers. I suppose relations between Germany and Japan will sour now that they are eying each other over a rump-USSR. It was just an alliance of convenience anyway.

As long as Roosevelt is still alive the US will be anti-nazi but Truman might be friendlier toward the nazis. He was quite an anti-communist but now the USSR has been reduced to a rump state between that might be butterflied away. We'd get a US that is just as militaristic or maybe even more since they have two enemies. Chances are that we'll get a threeway coldwar with a lot of proxy wars in post-colonial Africa with each of the three backing one side. So we get a combination of Fortress America and post-colonial interventionism. Without a holocaust (because of early victory) nazism will be less of a pariah ideology. The Jews will probably be dumped in Madagascar or maybe they''ll dump them in the rump-USSR. Communism will take its place as Hitler reveals the holodomor and purges to the entire world.

The best thing to do for the US is to wait for the other two to get into a war and nuke each other into oblivion. America inherits the world.
 
NOOOOOOOOOOOOO, the unmentionable sea mammal. Who says the Germans defeat Britain after Sealion? The OP doesn't. Everybody knows that was almost impossible. I'd say that a compromise peace after a disaster at Dunkirk is more likely.

After that the Germans will go on their anti-communist crusade. Because of this the Germans will get a lot of support in the US. Since Germany can buy oil they won't have fuel problems. Because Britain doesn't have to fight in Europe the Japanese will probably leave them and the US alone unless they want to feel the might of the entire Royal Navy+ the US navy. They'll go north. The Soviets will be weakened because now they are facing the entire German army and a Germany that isn't being bombed, doesn't have campaigns in Africa or the Balkans and can import the resources its needs. The USSR is screwed.

After the war the Americans will find that they are in a tripolar world. The USA, the Japanese Empire and Germany are the new superpowers. I suppose relations between Germany and Japan will sour now that they are eying each other over a rump-USSR. It was just an alliance of convenience anyway.

As long as Roosevelt is still alive the US will be anti-nazi but Truman might be friendlier toward the nazis. He was quite an anti-communist but now the USSR has been reduced to a rump state between that might be butterflied away. We'd get a US that is just as militaristic or maybe even more since they have two enemies. Chances are that we'll get a threeway coldwar with a lot of proxy wars in post-colonial Africa with each of the three backing one side. So we get a combination of Fortress America and post-colonial interventionism. Without a holocaust (because of early victory) nazism will be less of a pariah ideology. The Jews will probably be dumped in Madagascar or maybe they''ll dump them in the rump-USSR. Communism will take its place as Hitler reveals the holodomor and purges to the entire world.

The best thing to do for the US is to wait for the other two to get into a war and nuke each other into oblivion. America inherits the world.
Yeah, My Assessment EXACTLY ...

Hopefully WWIII will be Pre-H-Bomb, though ...

Otherwise, The Only Ones who Inherit Much of The Earth, Will Have 6 Legs and Fly!
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by ZaphodBeeblebrox
Yeah, My Assessment EXACTLY ...

Hopefully WWIII will be Pre-H-Bomb, though ...

Otherwise, The Only Ones who Inherit Much of The Earth, Will Have 6 Legs and Fly!
Even if their ancestors were human!

thats gotta be one of the best ones i;ve heard this month^^
 
Top