Impact of Mormon Secession During the ACW

Depends on whether the army cares if a bunch of "rebelling polygamous heretics" survives or not. A single regiment can simply march from farm to farm and burn everything down. They then leave , in which case the Mormons die from starvation or thirst.

If the army started doing that the Mormons would probably adopt the "scorched earth" policy they contemplated in the Utah War and retreat to the mountains leaving the regiment to wither on the vine or die by pinpricks in a hostile country. Bad idea on the army's part. I imagine that whoever is in charge (and historically even Patrick E. Connor, who hated the Mormons, had one regiment of infantry and three of cavalry in the District of Utah) would play it smart rather than attempt to brutalize the Mormons. There's more Mormons than soldiers after all.
 
2) Anticipation of secession didn't stop the South, why would it stop the Mormons.
Because just two years previously they were granted amnesty and (largely) left alone past that point.


3) Is there a strategic significance to the Southwest?
Outside of the gold-mines of California at that point? Not really. The Confederates sent a small army (I believe the number was around 2,500) to try and take California but it ended in failure before they even reached the state. Lack of water was the main reason.

4) I personally feel you are underestimating the Mormon militia. Many of them have combat experience fighting in the Utah War, M-A War, fighting in Missouri, and fighting Native Americans. These are people living on the frontier who can endure hardship and are handy with a weapon. They can deploy at least several thousand men, they're fighting on the defensive in the Rocky Mountains, and are capable of raiding overextended US supply lines (what they did in otl during Utah War). It would take at least ten thousand men to deal with them (which is a lot early in the war) and depending on the quad these troops it may take more since most experienced US soldiers will be sent against the South.

The population of Utah at this point was 60,000 and the Utah War had cost the Mormons much. Alot of settlements outside of Utah had been abandoned, alot of live-stock had been killed, and crops had been neglected and it would take a few years for them to be able to recover. The Utah war was not meant to be a bloody one and it wasn't because of the actual fighting. Most of the causalities came from massacres such as Mountain Meadows that saw 120 killed by the Mormons and Aiken which saw six kidnapped, robbed, then killed. Everyone (expect for the ones that took part in Mountain Meadows) were pardoned.

I'm sorry, but why the hell are you calling Mormons terrorists? Just because a group of people secede because of religious persecution, that doesn't mean they are anywhere comparable to Isis.
He wasn't comparing them to Isis. You have terrorism from all walks of life and from all religions. They did commit terrorist actions during the Utah war, and it would be likely that they would again if such a thing happened.


But to answer the OP.
The Confederates would need to do much better in the South-West for the secession to have any real effect. By mid 1862 Union troops were back in Utah so they had less then a year gap where troops weren't within the territory. Outside of that they would need to content with the Coloradoan, and Washington militia. The max amount of men that they could call upon was around 12,000 and another 800-1,400 regular troops. The New Mexico campaign lasted between February and April of 1862 and it would require the Confederates to do much better in the field. They were able to advance a fair distance but the lack of supplies made them need to turn back. You would need Canby (the Union colonel in command for most of the campaign) to not have burned/taken all of the supplies from Albuquerque and Santa Fe. Past that the Union was getting reinforcements while Silby (commander of the Confederate army) may or may not get them. Once the Confederates stop threatening California the Mormons would be simply crushed by the superior Union numbers (and supplies).
 
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