Impact of Italy quitting the war after Caporetto?

  • Thread starter Deleted member 1487
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Deleted member 1487

What if the defeat at Caporetto in 1917 was somehow worse and the Central Powers offer separate peace terms that are reasonable and Italy leaves the war in late 1917? How does that impact Italy and what does it mean for the Allies now that A-H has no active fronts and can demobilize a large part of it's forces for agriculture and whatnot, while freeing up it's production to rebuild it's collapsing infrastructure? Beyond that Germany wouldn't have to supply it with as much to keep it going. Having read enough about the state of the A-H forces, the 4 divisions sent IOTL to the Western Front were in no way ready to fight a modern Western Front foe and fared badly and were relegated to a quiet sector; let's assume for the sake of argument that beyond that no A-H divisions are sent to fight in France.
 
It's too late to forego the Turnip Winter, I assume, and those five Anglo-French divisions are going to appear back in France. Honestly, I think the Entente still wins; the Spring Offensive shouldn't be much stronger than OTL, if at all, so they'll hang on long enough for American troops to show up and ensure they won't lose. Even if the Germans are better fed in mid-late 1918, superior numbers will still grind them down. The big changes would be in internal Italian politics, I imagine.
 

Deleted member 1487

It's too late to forego the Turnip Winter, I assume, and those five Anglo-French divisions are going to appear back in France. Honestly, I think the Entente still wins; the Spring Offensive shouldn't be much stronger than OTL, if at all, so they'll hang on long enough for American troops to show up and ensure they won't lose. Even if the Germans are better fed in mid-late 1918, superior numbers will still grind them down. The big changes would be in internal Italian politics, I imagine.
Yes Caporetto already went into December so the Turnip Winter is already happening. Not that an earlier Caporetto would change that much, as planting happens in Spring/Summer and harvest in Autumn, so it would be far too late to make a change to food production. Perhaps the Entente support divisions never go to Italy, because they showed up AFTER Caporetto already had been contained. Not sure they would change much come 1918, but the Italians then wouldn't send divisions to France in 1918 and they'd probably have to recall all the workers they sent to France as part of the alliance deal (several hundred thousand working in factories or on farms); that latter point could be very bad for France. Politically though I wonder if Italy dropping out would let the peace faction come to power in France; Caporetto, but with Italy staying in, brought the 'Tiger' Clemenceau to power and he 'remobilized' the country by jailing the head of the peace party and reconfirmed France's commitment to final victory by cracking down hard on the peace movement in general and strikes/protests. Perhaps that might push the French over the edge? In terms of CP supplies of food that probably won't be felt until summer when the Germans don't need to supply the A-H, so have more themselves, plus more trains, troops, explosives, raw materials for weapons, etc. that they don't give Austria unlike IOTL, while A-H is politically far more stable and won't collapse as per OTL. Perhaps they could even send means and other things to Germany if they aren't in active combat anywhere. Italy would be very interesting, because there will be a major socialist backlash from their loss, plus major Entente/Allied punishment post-war (and during the war) for dropping out.
 
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