Impact of Italians winning Battle of Beda Fomm 1941?

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Deleted member 1487

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Beda_Fomm
Apparently the battle was quite a near run thing, but the Italians lost and the remaining survivors of the 10th army were captured (25k men, over 100 tanks, more than 1500 motor vehicles, and over 200 artillery pieces) as they retreated. But what if they had defeated the British and escaped? They'd probably overrun and damage the British a fair bit and probably been able to hold the line at El Agheila and with Italian and German reinforcements would be in an ever better place to resist and counterattack. Would it make any difference to British planning or the subsequent campaign come March?
 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Beda_Fomm
Apparently the battle was quite a near run thing, but the Italians lost and the remaining survivors of the 10th army were captured (25k men, over 100 tanks, more than 1500 motor vehicles, and over 200 artillery pieces) as they retreated. But what if they had defeated the British and escaped? They'd probably overrun and damage the British a fair bit and probably been able to hold the line at El Agheila and with Italian and German reinforcements would be in an ever better place to resist and counterattack. Would it make any difference to British planning or the subsequent campaign come March?

how do you define "defeated" for an army on the run? How can they actually defeat the British army if they lacked the morale to do it?

They could perhaps defeat he combeforce, but with heavy casualties to be sure. How much will actually get through and escape? Not the 25,000 for sure and even if they did they wouldn't be of that much use afterwards. The Germans were taking charge and though they would be used they wouldn't be much more help to Rommel as the few thousand that did escape OTL.
 

Deleted member 1487

how do you define "defeated" for an army on the run? How can they actually defeat the British army if they lacked the morale to do it?

They could perhaps defeat he combeforce, but with heavy casualties to be sure. How much will actually get through and escape? Not the 25,000 for sure and even if they did they wouldn't be of that much use afterwards. The Germans were taking charge and though they would be used they wouldn't be much more help to Rommel as the few thousand that did escape OTL.
They had the means to plow through the road blocks had they prepared for the chance they might run into them. They fought on for a few days while British reinforcements trickled in and hit their flank and rear, which sealed the deal, but had they structured the vanguard for combat they could have overrun the ambush and continued on before any British reinforcements arrived.

For the sake of argument let's say some 20k men get through after the fight with most of the equipment.
 
The Italians had some new M1340s just unloaded at Benghazi which were "ok" against the British cruisers, IOTL the Italian tanks stuck to the road and tried to plow through the British defense but could have tried to out flank. It was a pretty close run thing.

Of course here there are extra 20,000 Italians that have to be supplied, The 10th Bergonzoli regiment and other mobile units would be handy in the later desert war.

Best case: the Germans/Italians take Tobruk and then settle down on the defenses of the Libyan border, maybe extend the light rail from Benghazi-Barce to Derna as a backup to Tobruk supply. Maybe Rommel gets transferred to the eastern front after this success and gets replaced with someone more in tune with just defending and this line holds all the way until Operation Torch at least.

The better supply situation means the Luftwaffe transfer from the eastern front gets delayed from November 41 to middle December, maybe the Kiln bulge disaster is reduced, followup effects is the Soviets don't encircle Demaynsk leaving Luftwaffe in better shape for 42.

November 1942 find Rommel in charge of 6th army and he after a day of waffling evacuates Stalingrad and with a stronger Luftwaffe the retreat works but most heavy equipment is lost.
 
The better supply situation means the Luftwaffe transfer from the eastern front gets delayed from November 41 to middle December, maybe the Kiln bulge disaster is reduced, followup effects is the Soviets don't encircle Demaynsk leaving Luftwaffe in better shape for 42.

I don't see how adding any additional strength to the Luftwaffe in the East is going to avoid the Kiln Bulge given the incapability of the Germans in supporting additional aircraft. The Luftwaffe in the winter of 1941-42 was impeded by the supply situation, inclement weather, and Soviet adaptation to it's presence. Pretty much the only meaningful impact the Luftwaffe managed that winter was supplying the Demyansk pocket. And as the VVS gained strength over the course of 1942 both quantitatively and qualitatively, it's impact declined even further.
 
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Deleted member 1487

I don't see how adding any additional strength to the Luftwaffe in the East is going to avoid the Kiln Bulge given the incapability of the Germans in supporting additional aircraft. The Luftwaffe in the winter of 1941-42 was impeded by the supply situation, inclement weather, and Soviet adaptation to it's presence. Pretty much the only meaningful impact the Luftwaffe managed that winter was supplying the Demyansk pocket. And as the VVS gained strength over the course of 1942 both quantitatively and qualitatively, it's impact was only going to decline even further.
Given that they supplied 2nd air fleet at Moscow until they transferred it to the Mediterranean in late November the supply capacity for that was there in December. It didn't magically disappear within a few days. The weather issue would be an impediment in December to a degree, but it didn't stop VIII air corps from adapting and generating far more sorties in January once they adapted. If supply were the issue than December should have been a great month for VIII air corps as it got 2nd air fleet's supply capacity, but instead December was a worse month for serviceability than November when hundreds more aircraft were using the same supply lines.
 
Given that they supplied 2nd air fleet at Moscow

Except in a very real sense, they didn't adequately supply the 2nd Luftlotte. At least, not for the rate of operation at which it was sustaining. It was already down to half the number of operational aircraft by October and the decline was even sharper over the course of November prior to it's transfer.

The weather issue would be an impediment in December to a degree, but it didn't stop VIII air corps from adapting and generating far more sorties in January once they adapted.
And failing to have much of a meaningful impact on the battle outside of supplying the Demyansk Pocket.

If supply were the issue than December should have been a great month for VIII air corps as it got 2nd air fleet's supply capacity, but instead December was a worse month for serviceability than November when hundreds more aircraft were using the same supply lines.
Easily explained by the onset of extreme winter conditions, which took time for them to adapt too.
 

Deleted member 1487

Except in a very real sense, they didn't adequately supply the 2nd Luftlotte. At least, not for the rate of operation at which it was sustaining. It was already down to half the number of operational aircraft by October and the decline was even sharper over the course of November prior to it's transfer.
It doesn't matter what the supply level constant operations will wear down units that had to take a pause at some point for maintenance. Combat losses, damage, crew exhaustion, and wear and tear/maintenance were the reasons for the declining operational rate.

And failing to have much of a meaningful impact on the battle outside of supplying the Demyansk Pocket.
Demyansk was also units brought in from other sectors, the VIII air corps was actually very impactful around Moscow in January and a major reason the Soviet offensive started to peter out and part of the reason why they had their best success in December.

Easily explained by the onset of extreme winter conditions, which took time for them to adapt too.
That and a lot of use of the previous months.
 
Wasn't most of the November transfers Ju88s. You would think that extra JU88s would be able to operate from better supplied fields further back. (of course were extrapolating far anyway at that point).

The best hope for Germany is that some way you can setup Africa to not be so much a drain, maybe the political effects of one less defeat and if you can make the east front better butterfly away the loss of the Italian expeditionary force in Russia that Mussolini is in a better political situation in 1943 that at some point people can make the responsible decisions to evacuate Africa earlier and maybe defend Southern Europe with extra forces.

Even better is if you can do better enough in the east to have the Soviets make peace with you (though that means for Germany back to the June 1941 start line and Hitler would have to have some brilliant insight to agree to that).

Then you defend western Europe with enough pulled from the east to make the prospect so daunting the Allies rely on bombers to win the war, but the Germans are strong enough to resist defeat this way although much damage would be caused. The Allies could drop the A-bomb but are worried about poison gas from V2s from nearby occupied France so they don't.

The Soviets are conservative and don't resume the war until the Allies actually invade the west so they are back to watching and waiting.

Japan is defeated sometime late 1945 (the Soviets can and do attack here like OTL).

in 1946 B29s start dropping ridiculous loads of conventional bombs on Germany, Hilter dies of natural causes or is assassinated and the war is over.
 
It doesn't matter what the supply level constant operations will wear down units that had to take a pause at some point for maintenance. Combat losses, damage, crew exhaustion, and wear and tear/maintenance were the reasons for the declining operational rate.

Exacerbated by the poorer supply situation and all of which would still be a factor driving German air power into the ground.

Demyansk was also units brought in from other sectors,
Actually staged out of other sectors. As in further west. Like the Baltic. Where both the weather and logistical situations were vastly better improved.

the VIII air corps was actually very impactful around Moscow in January and a major reason the Soviet offensive started to peter out and part of the reason why they had their best success in December.
The Soviet offensive petered out from a combination of operational-strategic decisions made by both sides (like Hitler's stand at all cost order and Stalin's decision to disperse resources), changes in the correlation of forces between the ground armies as the Soviets advanced, and the punch-drunk nature of both sides ground forces as a whole.

Air power only entered into the equation at Demyansk and even there in an extremely auxiliary role.

That and a lot of use of the previous months.
Which is also still there.
 

Deleted member 1487

The Italians had some new M1340s just unloaded at Benghazi which were "ok" against the British cruisers, IOTL the Italian tanks stuck to the road and tried to plow through the British defense but could have tried to out flank. It was a pretty close run thing.

Of course here there are extra 20,000 Italians that have to be supplied, The 10th Bergonzoli regiment and other mobile units would be handy in the later desert war.

Best case: the Germans/Italians take Tobruk and then settle down on the defenses of the Libyan border, maybe extend the light rail from Benghazi-Barce to Derna as a backup to Tobruk supply. Maybe Rommel gets transferred to the eastern front after this success and gets replaced with someone more in tune with just defending and this line holds all the way until Operation Torch at least.

The better supply situation means the Luftwaffe transfer from the eastern front gets delayed from November 41 to middle December, maybe the Kiln bulge disaster is reduced, followup effects is the Soviets don't encircle Demaynsk leaving Luftwaffe in better shape for 42.

I doubt Rommel would get transferred. He was a pain in the ass and would be far more likely to stay on in Africa until the job was not only done in terms of taking Egypt, but starting a Middle East campaign (which was the goal when moving on Egypt in 1942). He would want to stay too, because he had little oversight relative to the situation in the East and wouldn't want to go to that horror show, especially as he was getting the best publicity being a general, later field marshal, in Africa.

With an additional 20k pre-war army Italian troops with combat experience and then upgraded with new equipment and with a well trained and equipped ally the Axis forces in Africa would gain a significant boost, but I'm not sure an decisive one. The Italian army certainly got a lot better in 1941 thanks to the experience of 1940 and the addition of a powerful allied force and major reinforcements of the best units in the Italian army, so having some of the 10th army survivors who were quite good would be helpful on top of the reinforcements. I still don't necessarily think that would get them Tobruk come April-May 1941 given the supply situation, but it could have knock on effects down the road by the end of the year. Even if Tobruk holds out the addition of 20k veteran troops could make an impression during things like the Bardia raid or even Operation Crusader. If that fails that gives the British are very bloody nose and would probably lead to enough Axis forces being freed up for a prepared assault that takes Tobruk, especially if the defeat entails the capture of major supplies. Then post Tobruk the Axis forces could theoretically invade Egypt successfully.

TBH I don't think the 2nd Air Fleet would remain in Britain given the situation in the Mediterranean even with Rommel defeating Crusader. Malta had become too much of a problem and Hitler thought the Soviets were too weak to counterattack in the winter of 1941-42, so the 2nd air fleet was just too important to leave in a presumed quiet sector like the East over winter, especially as its transfer would ease the supply situation a bit in the East.

Likely even if Crusader was defeated 2nd air fleet still transfers to Sicily and suppresses Malta, while Rommel takes Tobruk and prepares for an early 1942 invasion of Egypt, which may or may not succeed depending on how badly Crusader is defeated. Assuming a reasonably best case situation in which the extra 20k veterans and their equipment allow for Crusader to be cut off and 8th army to be pretty smashed up, as least half killed or captured, then with the fall of Tobruk in January and a February/March invasion is feasible and Egypt probably just as if not more vulnerable than it was in July 1942.
 
somewhat off topic, but I have a board war game on the Battle of Beda Fomm that I've solo gamed several times, and none have ever resulted in an Italian win... :)
 

Deleted member 1487

somewhat off topic, but I have a board war game on the Battle of Beda Fomm that I've solo gamed several times, and none have ever resulted in an Italian win... :)
Part of that problem I'd imagine is that it reruns the OTL situation rather than an ATL one where the Italians actually prepare for the potential that they'd run into British units on the way to Sirte. IOTL they had the vanguard of the retreat led by REMFs and the combat units holding a rearguard in case any chasing British units caught up to them. Had they put combat troops in the vanguard of the retreat its likely they'd have defeated the initial ambush, rather than getting bogged down.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Beda_Fomm#Analysis
The British plan to trap the 10th Army had worked, despite the British being outnumbered 4:1 in medium tanks, most of the Italian tanks being new, while the British tanks had covered more than 1,000 miles (1,600 km) since the beginning of Operation Compass. The speed of the dash from Mechili had surprised the Italians, despite the obvious danger of such a move, especially when the British reached Msus on 4 February. Had the Italians on the Via Balbia been prepared for a road-block and made an organised attack, the 10th Army might have escaped. The British had gambled with the provision of fuel and supplies, which were capable only of sustaining a short operation and narrowly succeeded but the pursuit could not continue beyond El Agheila, due to broken-down and worn out vehicles. O'Connor requested through Wavell that the government reconsider the conquest of Tripolitania, just as the Greek government announced that it would resist German aggression and accept reinforcement by the British if sufficient forces could be made available.[49]


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Beda_Fomm#5_February
Combeforce reached Antelat during the morning and by 12:30 p.m. had observers overlooking the Via Balbia west of Beda Fomm and Sidi Saleh, about 48 kilometres (30 mi) south-west of Antelat and 32 kilometres (20 mi) north of Ajedabia, with the rest of Combeforce following on. An Italian convoy drove up about thirty minutes later, ran onto mines and was then engaged by the artillery, anti-tank guns and armoured cars, which threw the column into confusion. Some members of the 10th Bersaglieri tried to advance down the road and others looked for gaps in the ambush on either side of the road.[33]

The Bersaglieri had little effect, being unsupported by artillery, most of which was with the rearguard to the north. The attempts by the Italians to break through became stronger and in the afternoon, the 2nd Rifle Brigade crossed the Via Balbia into the dunes, to block the route south between the road and the sea. Combe also brought up a company behind the roadblock, placed some 25-pounders behind the infantry and kept some armoured cars manoeuvring in the desert to the east, to deter an Italian outflanking move. Several hundred prisoners were taken but only a platoon of infantry could be spared to guard them. The vanguard of the Italian retreat had no tanks, contained few front-line infantry and had been trapped by the ambush which forced them to fight where they stood.[30][33]

So if say the head of the retreat was tanks backed by artillery, they'd likely have pushed through before the Combeforce could reinforce and deploy a more elaborate blocking position.
 
Part of that problem I'd imagine is that it reruns the OTL situation rather than an ATL one where the Italians actually prepare for the potential that they'd run into British units on the way to Sirte.

The game is actually a close run thing, due to various rules on tanks in it. The first day, the Brits generally stomp the Italians far and wide. The second day, though... the Italians have the edge in tanks and have their best chance to break through. They came within a hair of it in a couple of games I did, but didn't quite manage it. A couple of different dice rolls, and they might have... :)
 

Deleted member 1487

The game is actually a close run thing, due to various rules on tanks in it. The first day, the Brits generally stomp the Italians far and wide. The second day, though... the Italians have the edge in tanks and have their best chance to break through. They came within a hair of it in a couple of games I did, but didn't quite manage it. A couple of different dice rolls, and they might have... :)
Thanks for the clarification. This is exactly what I mean though, on the first day the British were at their weakest and if a significant part of the 2nd day Italian forces were on hand on day 1 the British would have been overrun after inflicting initial damage. So then Combeforce is basically destroyed and the Italians get most of their men out.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Combeforce
7th armored is then short of a significant part of its fighting force (not that that mattered all that much to the fighting come March as 7th armored was removed from the line) which might influence events from February-March before Sonnenblume starts.

Actually, looking at this things would change a bit in Greece/Crete:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Combeforce#Subsequent_operations
They'd not be available for Operation Lustre and the defense of Suda Bay, so someone else would have to go in their place or not be available for that operation, perhaps significantly easing the German offensive in Greece/Crete if they aren't there or easing the situation in Africa if someone goes in their place.
 
Thanks for the clarification. This is exactly what I mean though, on the first day the British were at their weakest and if a significant part of the 2nd day Italian forces were on hand on day 1 the British would have been overrun after inflicting initial damage. So then Combeforce is basically destroyed and the Italians get most of their men out.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Combeforce
7th armored is then short of a significant part of its fighting force (not that that mattered all that much to the fighting come March as 7th armored was removed from the line) which might influence events from February-March before Sonnenblume starts.

Actually, looking at this things would change a bit in Greece/Crete:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Combeforce#Subsequent_operations
They'd not be available for Operation Lustre and the defense of Suda Bay, so someone else would have to go in their place or not be available for that operation, perhaps significantly easing the German offensive in Greece/Crete if they aren't there or easing the situation in Africa if someone goes in their place.


Without the better Italian Units such as the Babini Group with the Majority of the Remaining M13s acting as a Rear Guard its unlikely that the majority of those 25 thousand Italians (if any) would reach Combe Force let alone fight their way through it - so why Combe force might have to contend with this proposed vanguard force it would not have to contend with as much artillery or infantry which would have been overrun by units such as the 4th Armoured Brigade or the Australian 6th Infantry Division that was chasing them down the coast.

Therefore while the M13s 'might' be able to punch through Combeforce - they could not destroy it

So at best maybe elements of Babini force escape to the west it is at the expense of the remaining 10th Army elements going into the bag strung out along the coast road.

But I have to say I think its highly unlikely that the Italians would have their better units in the Vanguard and not in the Rear guard - the speed at which Combe force moved across the very harsh terrain in order to setup the roadblock was almost unprecidented at that point in the war and I cannot see that it would be predicted by the Italians Commanders to the point where they would 'lead' the retreat with their best troops.

Also Combe force was 2000 men and included only one complete unit (2nd Batt The Rifle Brigade) the rest being sub units (single squadrons or single Batteries) - its loss to the Desert Force while lementable (and highly unlikely) is negligable to subsequant events.
 
Yes, but you're relying on the Italians assuming that the British were going to 'cut the corner' at the Cyrenica bulge and cut them off. There were no road for the British, just a track that was a nightmare - there was a string of breakdowns for the British units in Combeforce, with disabled vehicles all down the track. The Italians didn't realise that the track was viable for a force. The British proved that it was (just) possible.
 
Yes, but you're relying on the Italians assuming that the British were going to 'cut the corner' at the Cyrenica bulge and cut them off. There were no road for the British, just a track that was a nightmare - there was a string of breakdowns for the British units in Combeforce, with disabled vehicles all down the track. The Italians didn't realise that the track was viable for a force. The British proved that it was (just) possible.

Sounds like its easier just to have the British never arrive.
 

Deleted member 1487

Alright, let's say Combeforce is delayed for some reason and the rest of the Italian 10th army slips away. What then for both sides?
 
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