Impact of Bulgaria and Albania joining Yugoslavia

kernals12

Banned
Wikipedia's list of Proposed State mergers includes a nearly successful attempt to get Bulgaria and Albania to become part of Yugoslavia. Now, Bulgarians and Albanians are obviously better off having avoided the the bloody Yugoslav wars, but I'm more interested on the impact during the Cold War. ITTL, the Soviet Union would have no access to the Mediterranean through any proxy states and they would have a hostile nation right on the Black Sea, only seperated on land by a small Romanian panhandle. So what impact does this have?
Screen Shot 2018-09-01 at 12.20.19 AM.png
 
So many butterflies. Because Albania and Bulgaria had more pro-Moscow hardliners Tito might get couped and the Bigslavia would be Soviet-friendly. Or the wholi thing would collapse within a few years, peacefully like the United Arab Republic or with a civil war. A stable country is unlikely.

A surviving and stronger Yugoslavia may take a tougher stance in the Trieste-dispute with Italy which OTL was resolved in 1954, and give more support for Greek communists, it could become a bogeyman for the West.
Or Stalin could force Yugoslavia to cede Istria to Italy if it was convenient to help Italian communists in election time.
It’s very difficult to predict something for more than a few years after the POD, let alone the cold war in the 70s and 80s.
 
Bulgarians could help to act as a third major faction to diminish the power of the Serbs which could help to make a true union of south slave instead of serbia+ if they are willing to reform if not it probably makes the eventual explosion more violent with a possibility of an anti-Serb coalition between Croatia and Bulgaria (Albania might be there plus one so to speak) with a more decisive Serbian defeat and less reason to compromise you might see you might see Croatia own Bosnia, Bulgaria own Macedonia and Albania own Kosovo
 
Bulgarians could help to act as a third major faction to diminish the power of the Serbs which could help to make a true union of south slave instead of serbia+ if they are willing to reform if not it probably makes the eventual explosion more violent with a possibility of an anti-Serb coalition between Croatia and Bulgaria (Albania might be there plus one so to speak) with a more decisive Serbian defeat and less reason to compromise you might see you might see Croatia own Bosnia, Bulgaria own Macedonia and Albania own Kosovo

The mechanics might be completely different than in OTL. The reason OTL why the poorer republic like Macedonia and Bosnia were the last to reluctantly secede despite the Serbian domination was because they wanted to keep Yugoslavia intact with the richer parts, Slovenia and Croatia.
If this Yugoslavia somehow managed to survive for decades, then maybe Bulgaria and Albania would prefer staying in a Yugoslavia where they could outvote the Serbs any time and still profit from redistribution of the wealth of the richer parts. The position of Slovenia and Croatia might be then comparable to Catalonia and the Basque country in Spain.
 

Deleted member 94680

Croats would be less disgruntled, certainly. Chances of a devastating war in Croatia/B&H go down.

How so? The larger, ethnically homogeneous, states of Bulgaria and Albania ‘balance’ the Serbs?
 
How so? The larger, ethnically homogeneous, states of Bulgaria and Albania ‘balance’ the Serbs?
Yes, and the number of Serbs controlling major factories and the military would drop accordingly. Thus Croats and Bosniaks would feel less threatened.
 

Deleted member 94680

Yes, and the number of Serbs controlling major factories and the military would drop accordingly. Thus Croats and Bosniaks would feel less threatened.

Well, maybe. The question is, as OTL, who succeeds Tito and how the power situation is set up in the case of Bulgarian and Albanian joining the Union. Is there a constitutional change as in 1974? Will the Serbs still be the largest ethnic group in Greater Yugoslavia?
 
Main problem is that Dimitrov wanted a confederation of Bulgaria and Yugoslavia, while Tito insisted that Bulgaria should be 7th republic. Suppose that Bulgaria is 7th republic, and Albania is 8th one. Serbian influence would greatly diminish and wars of 90s are highly unlikely. Greater Serbia would have to fight Albania, Bosnia, Croatia and Bulgaria at the same moment.

Croatia and Bulgaria would create a coalition within Yugoslavia, while the only allies of Serbia would be Montenegro and possibly Slovenia. Bloc of Croatia, Bulgaria and Albania would be stronger than any potential Serbian bloc within the federation.

After Tito's death, there is a great possibility that someone from Bulgaria would be president. Serbia would be overvoted in the collective presidency every time. Yugoslavia would have several economic problems, though.
 
Last edited:
The Bulgarians would be the major part and heart of the state and not the Serbians, and I highly doubt they would enjoy that at all.

I can see Serbia kicking and screaming, and try something stupid.
 
Last edited:
Main problem is that Dimitrov wanted a confederation of Bulgaria and Yugoslavia, while Tito insisted that Bulgaria should be 7th republic. Suppose that Bulgaria is 7th republic, and Albania is 8th one. Serbian influence would greatly diminish and wars of 90s are highly unlikely. Greater Serbia would have to fight Albania, Bosnia, Croatia and Bulgaria at the same moment.

Croatia and Bulgaria would create a coalition within Yugoslavia, while the only allies of Serbia would be Montenegro and possibly Slovenia. Bloc of Croatia, Bulgaria and Albania would be stronger than any potential Serbian bloc within the federation.

After Tito's death, there is a great possibility that someone from Bulgaria would be president. Serbia would be overvoted in the collective presidency every time. Yugoslavia would have several economic problems, though.

Serbs don't have to fight Bulgarians actually. There are no Serbs in Western Bulgaria or Bulgarians in Eastern Serbia. At least not on level as Serbs in Croatia and Bosnia. It is likely Bulgaria will go like Macedonia or Slovenia in such case.
 
The Bulgarians would be the major part and heart of the state of the Serbians, and I highly doubt they would enjoy that at all.

I can see Serbia kicking and screaming, and try something stupid.

What are they going to do? Take on both Croats and Bulgarians? I doubt it. It might be ironic that Serbs want to seperate from Yugoslavia.
 
Wikipedia's list of Proposed State mergers includes a nearly successful attempt to get Bulgaria and Albania to become part of Yugoslavia. Now, Bulgarians and Albanians are obviously better off having avoided the the bloody Yugoslav wars, but I'm more interested on the impact during the Cold War. ITTL, the Soviet Union would have no access to the Mediterranean through any proxy states and they would have a hostile nation right on the Black Sea, only seperated on land by a small Romanian panhandle. So what impact does this have?View attachment 405596
The Yugoslav wars were not inevitable, they could have been worse than in OTL or non-existant. Perhaps Bulgaria and Albania joining Yugoslavia or Balkan Federation would stablise the polity?

If the merger came to fruition how would the Greek Civil War be affected? Would Greece be conquered and then forced into the federation? Would minorities in Greece be supported by the Balkan Federation? OTL Greece saw flight of some minorities during the Greek Civil War. If Greece had been at war with the Balkan Federation, perhaps Turkey would use the opportunity to take Greece's eastern Aegean islands? Later if Greece is absorbed by the Balkan Federation, then the Balkan Federation may wish for the return of Turkish occupied territory?
 
Here is a map of the Balkan Federation using OTL borders.
Balkan Federation.png

Is this map a realistic endpoint in the territorial evoltution of the Balkan Federation? Where could the Balkan Federation expand into? Where could irredentism potentially serve Balkan Federation territorial ambitions?
 
The Yugoslav wars were not inevitable, they could have been worse than in OTL or non-existant. Perhaps Bulgaria and Albania joining Yugoslavia or Balkan Federation would stablise the polity?

If the merger came to fruition how would the Greek Civil War be affected? Would Greece be conquered and then forced into the federation? Would minorities in Greece be supported by the Balkan Federation? OTL Greece saw flight of some minorities during the Greek Civil War. If Greece had been at war with the Balkan Federation, perhaps Turkey would use the opportunity to take Greece's eastern Aegean islands? Later if Greece is absorbed by the Balkan Federation, then the Balkan Federation may wish for the return of Turkish occupied territory?

All of Greece will not be annexed as the Greek population is non-Slavic AND their identity exists longer than Albania AND have a larger population. Greek Macedonia and Western Thrace however can be annexed though. Maybe even part of Ioannina.
 
Albania and Bulgaria each have their own identity and their own history of completely independent statehood, especially Bulgaria. Also, this probably means no Tito-Stalin split, which has one or two good sides and three or four really bad sides. In other words, this would only create a lot of additional problems. And no real stabilizing benefits.
 
All of Greece will not be annexed as the Greek population is non-Slavic AND their identity exists longer than Albania AND have a larger population. Greek Macedonia and Western Thrace however can be annexed though. Maybe even part of Ioannina.
Which parts of Ioannia do you think could be annexed by the Balkan League? Would it be the areas that have Albanian and/or Aromanian majorities?

Perhaps the Balkan Federation at the end of the war would establish a Aromanian state? Maybe this Aromanian state could be part of Albania as autonomous region?

Would Albania expand into the Greek share of Greater Albania?

Where would Macedonia and Western Thrace go? Would both Bulgaria and FYROM get some land, or might Bulgaria get it all even FYROM?

What would happen to the ethnic Greeks in the conquered regions? Would they be expelled? Would they be allowed to stay allthough many may choose to leave?

How would this rump Greece develop? I imagine that it would be alot more urban than in OTL, probably alot more Athens centered too. Having a more densely populated country, maybe Greece could become a richer country than in OTL? Maybe Greece could get economic assistance to help it establish a viable economy?
 
Top