Sure, but without the possibility of Paris tempting them into a Mass, the Bourbons might not be, not to mention the various other Huguenots running around (especially without St. Bartholomew's Day). No prospect of a Protestant heir to the throne massively affects both sides in the Wars of Religion (assuming Henry II manages to have another, healthy son, although note that Catherine de' Medici was getting towards the end of her child-bearing years when he died).
Of course, if it butterflies the death of Francis II long enough to have a son by Mary, Queen of Scots, then you have real changes starting to happen (and nightmares in England, but that's a separate matter).