Impact of a Successful Vinland on the Old World?

Vinland threads are a dime a dozen, so the subject of this thread isn't to do with Vinland itself, but rather the impact of Vinland.

If we assume that the Norse are able to establish a permanent settlement in Newfoundland, and everything goes swimmingly for Vinland from there onwards, what would be the reaction of the Old World to these developments?

Would we see an earlier start to the Age of Exploration, now that Europe is aware of the existence of the New World centuries before Columbus? Would European countries establish colonies in the Americas, or would the incentive to do so not exist in the Medieval era? Or would Vinland's existence only be known to Norse traders in Iceland and Greenland, resulting in the Old World being oblivious to the New World until 1492, when Columbus sails the ocean blue?
 
What is our "successful Vinland", and how successful is it? If Newfoundland is just another Iceland, I can't imagine the impact would be particular big. There's still no incentive to sail to the Caribbean or better yet, the Mississippi or especially Mexico where the major civilisations are, and Europeans might not really think of Vinland as anything but a semi-civilised area bordering many uncivilised peoples. Be it Newfoundland or Newfoundland's neighbours (in the colonial era those were the Mi'kmaq people), they don't have much to trade. And European shipbuilding in the Middle Ages is nowhere near as good as it would become in the 15th century onwards.

Thus, there's many obstacles to preventing Europeans from interacting much with the New World during the Middle Ages.
 
Basically what metal said.

Honestly, the lack of gold would bore some, but I think you might have interest from other parties. Say disaffected groups.

It also provides a fantastic literary option. WI (butterflies permitting) The Romans agree to surrender Constantinople in exchange for passage to the lands beyond Vinland? (1453 scenario).

The idea of an open land would interest those not looking for gold, but a home. 3rd sons of Lords might sponsor expeditions, becoming minor lordlings in the process.

Interesting potential, a Jewish community could migrate to found New Zion. Or something like that.

All of these groups however are dependent on, and provide benefits to, Vinland. Intermediary between Vinlandia and Europe.
 
You probably wouldn't see any real changes for several centuries, unless you do a real butterfly effect thing. Vinland would be on the peripheral of the world, with likely only Greenland and Iceland in contact continuously. You might need to wait till the reign of Haakon IV of Norway, who OTL annexed Iceland and Greenland. Attempts to do the same to Vinland might spawn something, since Haakon was rather ambitious and was willing to negotiate firmly as far as Castille. If he sends part of his fleet there and they learn just how much land is around Newfoundland (which I assume is Vinland proper, with maybe a few settlements on the surrounding mainland), it might start receiving focus from the Norwegian crown. This could lead to immigration from Norway, which was like doubled in population till the Black Death, and force naval advancements to ease travel there.

Assuming Vinland had a population of 10,000 by 1100, with an initial settlement after 1000, by 1250 during Haakon's reign Vinland would have between 50,000-200,000 people depending on growth rate. That's a country.

If this doesn't happen and Haakon just quietly annexes it while a butterfly net is placed over everything else, the latest I could see it having an effect is by the Kalmar Union. The Union was formed at least partially to combat the dominance of the Hanseatic League. With superior naval architecture occurring and trade in northern Europe developing rapidly, I'd fully expect Queen Margaret to be looking to expand Nordic trade routes to a market the League didn't have access to. If nothing else, Vinland would have a population of half a million to several million. That's either a huge market to trade developed goods to, or a potential workforce for developing industries. There's really no way a Vinland, assuming it didn't balkanize, could not play a part in the Kalmar Union. Really, just getting to the Kalmar Union would be unlikely.

The real issue is that the smaller butterflies which would add up are basically entirely up to chance or author's privilege. You might have Vinland remain small, not quite growing consistently due to a number of issues. You could have Haakon focus on a populated Vinland, making it an integral part of Norway and a growing Vinland would allow Norway to not suffer the population deficiencies it had OTL and throw its weight around more in Scandinavia. Or Vinland could flip Norway the bird, and start a rapid expansion against the natives. Or Vinland could adopt many cultural and genetic traits of the natives. It could just go so many ways. The development of economic and cultural ties, not to mention political conventions, is far from a simple process. Vinland could remain a backwater more connected with the native Americans than Europe, or it could build ties so that it is a decently strong country in its own right with strong connections to Europe.
 
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