Impact of a Russian Revolution in 1905

samcster94

Banned
There were serious revolts and the Tsar's reputation was permanently damaged after losing to Japan. What would it take for it to be successful and how would it hit the rest of Europe?
 
Revolution or Civil War? Because the two require very different circumstances, and the later is far more likely than the former.
 
I assume the OP means one where instead of the Tsar appeasing, he is actually overthrown? In that case it really depends. The Liberals just wanted, well, liberalization. A Constitution, elections, all that good stuff. Of course the Radical Lefties wanted more. The more likely to violently overthrow the Tsar are the latter, led by Trotsky and Chernov, and they still wanted democracy, so maybe an uneasy alliance between them after the Tsar refuses to appease them will ensue as they work to violently over throw Nicky? Hard to say.
 
I assume the OP means one where instead of the Tsar appeasing, he is actually overthrown? In that case it really depends. The Liberals just wanted, well, liberalization. A Constitution, elections, all that good stuff. Of course the Radical Lefties wanted more. The more likely to violently overthrow the Tsar are the latter, led by Trotsky and Chernov, and they still wanted democracy, so maybe an uneasy alliance between them after the Tsar refuses to appease them will ensue as they work to violently over throw Nicky? Hard to say.
As I said perhaps communism emerges earlier than in OTL as well as an earlier Russian Civil War and Soviet Union. Hell, WW1 could go differently with a Soviet Union existing much earlier.
 
As I said perhaps communism emerges earlier than in OTL as well as an earlier Russian Civil War and Soviet Union. Hell, WW1 could go differently with a Soviet Union existing much earlier.
I'm not sure we get a recognizable Soviet Union out of this though. We could easily just get a Social Democratic Russia, or maybe just a Liberal one with Socialist sympathies. Either way, I think it might stay out of World War I, as I bet the new government would be focused on internal reform/consolidation.
 
I'm not sure we get a recognizable Soviet Union out of this though. We could easily just get a Social Democratic Russia, or maybe just a Liberal one with Socialist sympathies. Either way, I think it might stay out of World War I, as I bet the new government would be focused on internal reform/consolidation.
SR or left SR is way more likely than RSDLP(m) or (b). Hell, most of Leninism developed as a critique of (b) following 05.
 
SR or left SR is way more likely than RSDLP(m) or (b). Hell, most of Leninism developed as a critique of (b) following 05.
For a successful overthrow of the Tsar in 1905 I think the Liberals have to be on board. They tried without them and were repressed. So at least initially it won't be SR. But I think eventually they would consolidate and the SR's would have control.
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
A succesful 1905 revolution could also easily lead to a democratic Russia, either a real Constitutional Monarchy that doesn't leave room for the Czar to claw himself back to power, or a Republic. I actually think it ending up in a Socialist state is one of the less likely outcomes.
 
For a successful overthrow of the Tsar in 1905 I think the Liberals have to be on board. They tried without them and were repressed. So at least initially it won't be SR. But I think eventually they would consolidate and the SR's would have control.

For a successful overthrow of the Tsar you need the army to throw down their rifles or turn them on the throne, unless you want to do it via a broader civil war. You also need a more unified leadership among the revolutionaries, who were (and, in most cases are) a mish-mash of political and social groups with differing and often contradicting demands. The Regime has on its side the ability to successfuly co-ordinate its actions and reactions. I imagine instead you'd end up with a "temporary" caretaker government of the generals with advice by acceptable liberal/moderate-conservative leaders who'd actually take the wind out of the socialist sails, at least at first.
 

samcster94

Banned
I assume the OP means one where instead of the Tsar appeasing, he is actually overthrown? In that case it really depends. The Liberals just wanted, well, liberalization. A Constitution, elections, all that good stuff. Of course the Radical Lefties wanted more. The more likely to violently overthrow the Tsar are the latter, led by Trotsky and Chernov, and they still wanted democracy, so maybe an uneasy alliance between them after the Tsar refuses to appease them will ensue as they work to violently over throw Nicky? Hard to say.
My idea was exactly him off the throne(or on it but made powerless) rather than the halfhearted reforms in OTL by the Tsar.
 
I wonder, could a worse Dogger Bank Incident against Britain during the Russo-Japanese War, resulting in an Anglo-Russian War (also with the possibility of Germany jumping in) at the same time, lead to a more successful 1905 rev?
 

The Avenger

Banned
Russia would probably become a constitutional monarchy with a very constrained monarchy...which probably prevents WW1 as we know it.
I could still see a democratic Russia--whether a genuine constitutional monarchy or a republic--fighting to protect Serbia, though.
 
I'm inclined to agree with those who assert that a more liberal / westernized Russia wouldn't back Serbia, a client state, in the event of a crisis. In fact, I'll go so far to say that a liberalized Russia might be an exporter of liberalizing notions to its clients in the Balkans, including Serbia. That might yield an earlier crisis situation that in turn might yield a general European war; i.e., something different than the assassination of Franz Ferdinand, but equally unsettling. Serbia, for example, might send agents provocateurs into Hungary, Slovenia, or Croatia, bent on fomenting pro-democratic discontent to de-stabilize the Hapsburg regime...take it from there.
 

The Avenger

Banned
I'm inclined to agree with those who assert that a more liberal / westernized Russia wouldn't back Serbia, a client state, in the event of a crisis. In fact, I'll go so far to say that a liberalized Russia might be an exporter of liberalizing notions to its clients in the Balkans, including Serbia. That might yield an earlier crisis situation that in turn might yield a general European war; i.e., something different than the assassination of Franz Ferdinand, but equally unsettling. Serbia, for example, might send agents provocateurs into Hungary, Slovenia, or Croatia, bent on fomenting pro-democratic discontent to de-stabilize the Hapsburg regime...take it from there.
Aren't your two points here contradictory?
 
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