Impact of a pro USSR Israel

[samcster94]

What if Israel, at some POD between 1948 and 1967, decided to be more pro-USSR??? I am asking for a nominally democratic one(within its borders), not a dictatorship. India did this OTL, so why not Israel??? I am not asking the USSR to be kind to Jews except on paper, but more to see them as an ally out of necessity.

 

[twistedirregular]

Have more Western support for the surrounding Arab countries (i.e. Egypt) and/or more Eastern material support to Israel either prior to or during the Israeli War of Independence?

 

[Noscoper]

ASB, Too many factors pushed Israel into a pro-western alignment such the widespread western public support for Israel , events like the Suez Crisis, and close ties to France and Britain . The only way I can see a pro-soviet Israel is if Israel was communist

 

[GauchoBadger]

If Israel wants to align with the USSR, she'll have to make peace with Syria, which might not be hard on the Israelis' part (the Syrians' part, however, is another can of worms).
Could a pro-Soviet Syrian-Israeli alliance result in a partition of Lebanon? I assume that this scenario has a pre-Suez PoD, which could have butterflies over the Lebanese Crisis of 1958.

 

[GauchoBadger]

ASB, Too many factors pushed Israel into a pro-western alignment such the widespread western public support for Israel , events like the Suez Crisis, and close ties to France and Britain . The only way I can see a pro-soviet Israel is if Israel was communist

Britain disapproved heavily of Israeli conduct and motivations during the 1948 war, and the USA only started supporting Israel after increasingly pro-Soviet rhethoric from Egypt and Syria after the Six Day War. OTOH, the USSR recognised Israel ever since the beginning, and Golda Meir once visited Moscow, even. It might actually be quite far from ASB.

 

[Thon Taddeo]

The POD could be an earlier death of Stalin. That means no propoganda about "rootless cosmopolitans", no Night of the Murdered Poets and no Doctors' Plot.

 

[Noscoper]

Britain disapproved heavily of Israeli conduct and motivations during the 1948 war,

They were a strong supporter of Israel along with France during the 1950s and 1960s.

USA only started supporting Israel after increasingly pro-Soviet rhethoric from Egypt and Syria after the Six Day War

Yes but US public opinion has strongly been on the side of Israel since it's creation

 

[Minchandre]

Yes but US public opinion has strongly been on the side of Israel since it's creation

Public opinion on the side of Israel, yes; leadership opinion, less so. I'm also not sure about "strongly". There was strong support from most American Jews, and from Evangelical Christians, and there was a great deal of sympathy for the Jews...but I think the average American in 1948 or 1953 or 1966 didn't care very much about a small, distant country, for all that it was a democracy and whatnot. Maybe some admiration for little, plucky Israel, surrounded by so many big scary enemies, but that's about it.

Politically, the US - probably correctly - saw courting the Arabs are more important. Later, they were pissed at Israel because of the whole Suez thing. The US only started supporting Israel in 1967 after it was clear that A. Egypt and Syria were firmly in the Soviet camp and B. Israel could hold its own. These two facts made Israel more of an asset than a liability. And still, Nixon and Kissinger were very skeptical of Israel for Nixon's entire term (not helped by the fact that Kissinger and Golda Meir got along famously badly).

 

[alspug]

People think Soviet weapons are far far more effective then they ever where in Arab hands .

 

[David T]

What if Israel, at some POD between 1948 and 1967, decided to be more pro-USSR??? I am asking for a nominally democratic one(within its borders), not a dictatorship. India did this OTL, so why not Israel??? I am not asking the USSR to be kind to Jews except on paper, but more to see them as an ally out of necessity.

The problem isn't that Israel didn't want good relations with the USSR; it's that the USSR, after briefly supporting the creation of the state, didn't want good relations with Israel, finding the Arabs more important geopolitically and Zionism dangerously attractive to Soviet Jews. It's hard to see anything Israel could have done to change that.

 

[Anchises]

Have more Western support for the surrounding Arab countries (i.e. Egypt) and/or more Eastern material support to Israel either prior to or during the Israeli War of Independence?

During the Suez crisis and the 1967 and 1972 wars the USSR actually delievered weapons more freely. And until the 80s (imho) the non-monkey model Soviet weapons weren't inferior (for the job they were supposed to do).

I don't think that a USSR aligned Israel is terribly likely but if that happens Israel's warmaking capabilities might be actually greater than IOTL.

The West always tried to reign in Israeli hawks. Frequent weapon embargoes and massive diplomatic pressure during the wars always dampened what Israel could have achieved from a military point of view.

The Soviets weren't that shy in supporting their Arab clients. Of course there are certain boundaries (possible U.S. intervention etc.) that limit what can be achieved even with a more warlike patron.

The decisive question for how Israel and the Middle East would develop is the alignment of the Arab states.

IOTL the USA is (and was) able to have Israel and the reactionary Gulf States in its camp/sphere. The divide between the Arab socialists and the Arab reactionaries allowed the West to support Israel without giving up all influence on the Arabs on their oil.

The USSR wouldn't be able to pull this off.

The USA quietly accepted the reactionary anti-zionism but exploited the fear that the monarchs had. Powerful (socialist) Pan-Arabism threatened their rule, so the Saudis, UAE etc. quietly accepted U.S. support for Israel. There is no inherent ideological reason that prevented U.S. support for reactionary monarchs. Sure Democracy and all that but anticommunism and an open market were enough to justify U.S. support.

The Soviets were perfectly able to ignore ideological differences too but monarchy and a "free market" economy were ideological red flags.

So full support for Israel means giving up all influence on the Arab states and a lot of influence on the global oil markets. Seems unlikely to me.

 

[starman]

During the Suez crisis and the 1967 and 1972 wars...

1973 war. But the greatest Soviet involvement came in 1970, to bolster Egypt with improved AD.

I don't think that a USSR aligned Israel is terribly likely but if that happens Israel's warmaking capabilities might be actually greater than IOTL.

Of course. Soviet weapons would've been delivered faster and in greater quantity. They were also cheaper, and long term credits were available. (Of course, one problem would've been loss of access to far more lucrative arab markets, notably in Iraq and Libya. Without US $ Israel might've found it to tough to pay for massive imports of soviet arms.)There were some quality issues vis a vis western weapons but they would do. Arab failures weren't mainly due to those issues.

The West always tried to reign in Israeli hawks. Frequent weapon embargoes and massive diplomatic pressure during the wars always dampened what Israel could have achieved from a military point of view.

Right. The Soviets could've encouraged Israel to go very far. Dayan didn't want to occupy arab capitals but Soviet encouragement might've led to much of the arab world being overrun, including oil producing areas. In theory, that might've compensated for alienation of the arabs due to a pro-Israel policy.
But the Soviets no doubt felt this would've been a risky gamble and it was more prudent just to back the arabs.

Powerful (socialist) Pan-Arabism threatened their rule, so the Saudis, UAE etc. quietly accepted U.S. support for Israel.

Well, not entirely, as the '73 oil embargo indicates.

 

[starman]

The US only started supporting Israel in 1967 ....

Generally yes but there were some arms sales, like HAWKs c 1962 and A-4s in 1966.

 

[Anchises]

1973 war. But the greatest Soviet involvement came in 1970, to bolster Egypt with improved AD.

Of course. Soviet weapons would've been delivered faster and in greater quantity. They were also cheaper, and long term credits were available. (Of course, one problem would've been loss of access to far more lucrative arab markets, notably in Iraq and Libya. Without US $ Israel might've found it to tough to pay for massive imports of soviet arms.)There were some quality issues vis a vis western weapons but they would do. Arab failures weren't mainly due to those issues.

Right. The Soviets could've encouraged Israel to go very far. Dayan didn't want to occupy arab capitals but Soviet encouragement might've led to much of the arab world being overrun, including oil producing areas. In theory, that might've compensated for alienation of the arabs due to a pro-Israel policy.
But the Soviets no doubt felt this would've been a risky gamble and it was more prudent just to back the arabs.

Well, not entirely, as the '73 oil embargo indicates.

1) Dang it, I always think its 1972 for some reason.

2) I think Israel would enjoy some level of access to western markets. The bare minimum would be access to West German markets.

The Soviet Union might also subsidize Israel heavily for prestige reasons.

3) The only foundation for a "productive" relation between Israel and the Soviets would be an Israel that heavily supports the spread of pro-Moscow movements.

Basically an Israel that overthrows the Syrian government and manages to install a Moscow and Tel Aviv friendly Marxist government. This seems incredibly unlikely because I really doubt that there are enoug Arabs willing to cooperate with the Israelis.

And all of these feels wrong... the USSR siding with the Arabs imho is more consistent with ideologies and geopolitical realities.

4) Sure, there were a lot of problems in the US-Arab relationship but ultimately the Americans were able to make it work.

 

[interpoltomo]

No energy crisis until the 1990s when *peak oil hits.

 

[werewolf]

What if Israel, at some POD between 1948 and 1967, decided to be more pro-USSR??? I am asking for a nominally democratic one(within its borders), not a dictatorship. India did this OTL, so why not Israel??? I am not asking the USSR to be kind to Jews except on paper, but more to see them as an ally out of necessity.

israel joined the west for pragmatic reasons (us bank loans trade and investment) and cultural reasons (need us jews money and political support )

israel was also very deeply connected to france between 1948-1967

beyond the well known issue of stalinist anti semitism and jewish discrimination within the ussr

the ussr was never in a position to give an equivalent deal without massive herculean effort no soviet government could reasonably engage in

 

[ric350]

What if some “Bloody Sunday” event occurred in early 1948? Say some British response to Zionist bombings goes terribly wrong and many Jewish civilians are killed? Both sides escalate until the USSR and the US finally broker a peace, but relations with Britain are unrepairable. The USSR fills the vacuum.

Ric350

 

[starman]

3) The only foundation for a "productive" relation between Israel and the Soviets would be an Israel that heavily supports the spread of pro-Moscow movements.

Or just use Israel to help undermine the West geopolitically and economically. Arm Israel, wait for the arabs to precipitate a conflict, then use it as a pretext to overrun Sinai and Golan while the main, followup thrust is well to the east--all of Jordan, southern Iraq, Kuwait and eastern KSA. Getting much of the oil the West needs under the control of a Soviet client would be a big geopolitical gain.

And all of these feels wrong... the USSR siding with the Arabs imho is more consistent with ideologies and geopolitical realities.

Yeah, like anti-colonialism, arab socialism, added to the far greater size, resources and population of the arab world.