BigBlueBox

Banned
Does a non-Communist Russia include one led by moderate socialists (mainly SR's and Mensheviks)? If so, the peace is probably softer, not harsher on Germany than the Versailles of OTL. The soviet, when still controlled by Mensheviks and SR's, had called for a peace without annexations or indemnities. And certainly many Russian non-Bolshevik socialists could accept the argument that once the German people had thrown off their Kaiser ("as we did our Tsar") the German Republic should not have to pay for the sins of Imperial Germany.
And then the French and British remind Russia of the mountain of debt she owes them. Russia immediately pulls a 180 and requests that Germany pays of the debt as reparations to Russia.
End Result: Treaty of Versailles has the amount of reparations doubled compared to OTL.
 
For you guys have been mentioning Poland and the Ottomans, here is my scenario.

Poland had been occupied by the Central Powers until the end of the war. It it is still under occupation when the War ends in TTL. Then yes, Russia might try to appease Poland by offering them everything short of independence. What would happen is there would be an unstable relationship between the two throughout the 1920s with something more permanent being finalized in the 30s and 40s. But with Poland appeased for the next 10 years, Russia could focus on the task on pacifying Turkey.

Russia at Versailles is the worst case scenario for Turkey. I cant think of any other POD in the Twentieth Century where they stand to loose so much. After Turkey entered the War, the Entente were committed to its destruction. They never considered any other options. And I think part of the reason for that is that they knew the dam was about to break. Russia would be in Anatolia, so their only option was to partition Turkey so the Russians couldn't get to much. After Russia left the war, things were less dire, and the Allies could accept the thought of an independent Turkey, after Kemal showed what he was capable of. But if Russia lasts to the end of the war, the equation changes, since there could be tens of thousands of Russian troops in Anatolia to enforce the partition at gunpoint. How would they pay for this? Through the reparations of course! Would they also be war weary? Yes. But that isn't going to change anything. It just means they would have even less patience than usual if there is resistance. This isn't a normal Turk-screw, this is the worst case scenario for Turkey. Period.
 
Last edited:
Russia at Versailles is the worst cause for Turkey. I cant think of any other POD in the Twentieth Century where they stand to loose so much. After Turkey entered the War, the Entente were committed at to its destruction. They never considered any other option. And I think part of the reason for that is that they knew the dam was about to break. Russia would be in Anatolia, so their only option was to partition Turkey so the Russian couldn't get to much. After Russia left the war, things were less dire, and the Allies could accept the thought of an independent Turkey, after Kemal showed what he was capable of. But is Russia lasts to the end of the war, the equation changes, since there could be tens of thousands of Russian Troops in Anatolia to enforce the partition at gunpoint. How would they pay for this? Through the reparations of course! Would they also be war weary? Yes. But that isn't going to change anything. This isn't a normal Turk-screw, this is the worst case scenario for Turkey. Period.
How likely is it that the people of Turkey are subjected to genocide with Anatolia becoming Greek lebensraum with Russia shielding Greece from international outrage considering that the Serbs already wanted to carry out the Bosnian Genocide 75 years early?
 
How likely is it that the people of Turkey are subjected to genocide with Anatolia becoming Greek lebensraum with Russia shielding Greece from international outrage considering that the Serbs already wanted to carry out the Bosnian Genocide 75 years early?
If the Turks accept the partition, than Anatolia would probably just resemble what happened in Africa, and would stayed occupied for about as long. If they become guerrillas, the scale of the retaliation that would ensue on the countryside could be horrific.

I think Russia and the Entente would support the Greek claims (the Straits are a different matter however). It gives them an ally in the region that would be committed to holding down Anatolia and would be fearful of the partition ending so would fight to keep the new status quo. Like I said, its the worst case scenario. But I don't think the Greeks would commit genocide. They want their piece of Anatolia stable. There might be a lot of propaganda though, trying to convince the Turks that they were always Greeks, they just happened to follow a different religion.
 

kernals12

Banned
Anyways, what differences would there be if it is Tsar Nicholas II's government negotiating and if it is the Provisional Government negotiating?
Nitpick: The Provisional Government will have expired with the convening of the Constituent Assembly in January 1918.
And the big difference is that Russia's leaders, now subjected to the will of voters, will not be as keen on absorbing unwilling and restless people into their borders.
 
Nitpick: The Provisional Government will have expired with the convening of the Constituent Assembly in January 1918.
And the big difference is that Russia's leaders, now subjected to the will of voters, will not be as keen on absorbing unwilling and restless people into their borders.
I'm using "Provisional Government" as a shorthand for the "republican government which arose after the February Revolution", I may add.
 
Nitpick: The Provisional Government will have expired with the convening of the Constituent Assembly in January 1918.

If you want to be really nitpicky, you could argue that (formally speaking) the October insurrection merely replaced one provisional government with another! "The All-Russia Congress of Soviets of Workers', Soldiers', and Peasants' Deputies resolves: To establish a provisional workers' and peasants' government, to be know as the Council of People's Commissars, to govern the country until the Constituent Assembly is convened..."
https://www.marxists.org/archive/lenin/works/1917/oct/25-26/26e.htm
 
On the question of reparations to Russia: The Versailles Treaty of OTL provided for them! As I posted here some time ago:

***

"The Allied and Associated Powers formally reserve the rights of Russia to obtain from Germany restitution and reparation based on the principles of the present Treaty."--Article 116, Treaty of Versailles https://www.loc.gov/law/help/us-treaties/bevans/m-ust000002-0043.pdf

This sentence was inserted into the Versailles Treaty by the French. What they had in mind was this: Frenchmen had invested heavily before the war in Tsarist Russian government bonds. The bondholders were clamoring for their money, and this clamor was embarrassing the French government. The Bolsheviks of course would not pay the bondholders. But statesmen in France (as well as many other countries) thought in 1919 that the Bolsheviks would soon fall. So, reasoned French statesmen, let's reserve the right of Russia (not saying *what* Russia) to reparations from the Germans in the future. A new, friendly non-Bolshevik Russian government will pay off French bondholders and reimburse itself by taking reparations from the Germans (whose capacity to absorb further reparation payments was assumed). In other words, the Germans will really be paying off French holders of Russian bonds.

The Soviet government of course denounced the reparations provisions as well as the rest of the Treaty of Versailles. Even before the Bolsheviks took power the Petrograd Soviet had called for a peace "without annexations or indemnities." (According to Orlando Figes, some soldiers found this formula hard to understand, thinking that "Anneksiia" and "Kontributsiia"--"annexations" and "indemnities"--were two countries in the Balkans..) Lenin, of course, also used this phrase in his Decree on Peace. https://www.marxists.org/archive/lenin/works/1917/oct/25-26/26b.htm It would seem unlikely that the Soviet government would ever avail itself of Article 116. And yet that Article, which would seem to be a dead letter so far as Russia was concerned after the Bolsheviks won the Civil War, turned out to be quite significant a couple of years later, for the following reasons.. [And here I explain how the Soviets, in order to get a favorable agreement with Germany, spread rumors that without such an agreement they might invoke Article 116...]

https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...iet-russia-two-what-ifs.432631/#post-16206512
 
If Russia has a better run war economy, some of their food and financial issues could be reduced (albeit still happen). Along with a government that does a better job crushing dissent, that might give us a Russia that isn’t much stronger militarily but has a less discontent population and avoids revolution. Then we could have Russia get carried past the finish line in early 1918 with the CPs war effort hopeless by that point if Russia hasn’t dropped out.

Maybe if the Gallipoli Campaign was a success, Russia would be more easily supplied.

I think Russia and the Entente would support the Greek claims (the Straits are a different matter however). It gives them an ally in the region that would be committed to holding down Anatolia and would be fearful of the partition ending so would fight to keep the new status quo. Like I said, its the worst case scenario. But I don't think the Greeks would commit genocide. They want their piece of Anatolia stable. There might be a lot of propaganda though, trying to convince the Turks that they were always Greeks, they just happened to follow a different religion.

Given what happened OTL to Turkish civilians in places such as Smyrna, some might be more pessimistic about this.
 
With Wilson and self determination I can't see Poland not get independence, although the lines would vary from OTL. One thing you would absolutely, positively not see under any circumstance would be Russia having any sort of control of the straits.

In March 1915 Britain and France granted Russia a right to annex the Straits and this was confirmed after the February Revolution. :)
 
Top