Impact of a Confederate Victory on the Rest of the World

I've been reading this thread since its inception and I think there are a lot of misconceptions here. To really get to the gist of the OP's assertion one must know how the Confederacy won the ACW, what shape was it in afterwards and what came about during the treaty that ended the war. But even if we don't know that some outcomes can be inferred...if we assume as I feel, and many here agree with me, that in order to win at least Britain (and probably France as well) must intervene on the Confederacy's behalf in order to end the war such that the seceding states gain independence.

This intervention will ruin US-UK relations for a generation or so and Canada will become an armed camp. But this won't last long. Proximity and common bonds will move Canada towards the US for trade reasons. If Britain interferes expect more outbursts like the Rebellions of 1837 and Riel Rebellions. Eventually, the UK will acquiesce or loose Canada.

Britain will see a brief rise in conservative ideology to justify their support for a slavocracy. This might delay some critical reforms like the Reform Act of 1867 and perhaps lead to domestic violence but Britain will endure. Wealthy British still invest in US markets and trade between the two nations will grow and flourish. By the 1890s I expect we'll see a Great Reproachment as a new generation of British politicians turn away from their erstwhile "allies" and realize intervention in the ACW was a grave mistake.

Britain will quickly tire of Confederate promises of ending slavery while doing nothing to do so. And the Confederacy will tire of British badgering. As cotton production increases elsewhere British trade ties and money in North America will move to the Union.

Juarez will likely be caught and executed or live out his days in exile, perhaps haven coffee with Emperor Norton. Maximilian will survive a bit longer and the French will still have troops in Mexico all the way up until the actual war with Prussia. Very quickly the Confederacy will see France as its true ally and an exiled Napoleon III might find a home in Louisiana.

With a stronger but very conservative ally overseas the Royalists in France, such as Boulanger, may be further emboldened by the late 1880s. I wouldn't be surprised if a strange CSA, France, Spain and Brazil alliance arose to offset Anglo-American influence in the Western Hemisphere and Pacific Rim. It should not be to hard to convince Germany to hold back naval production if given guarantees by the British and Americans.

The supposed alliance with Russia was a brief affair of convenience brought about by the simultaneous occurrences of the ACW and Polish Uprising. Coupled with British missteps during the Crimean War and it was only logical that the US saw Russia as a possible offset to British meddling. But it was short lived and the two nations shared very little in the way of common strategic goals.

Benjamin
 
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