I'm Your Huckleberry - A Timeline Of Texas (and the 49 lesser states)

Love to see an installment on Kinky's Perot-like presence in the race, with some demographic breakdown about where and who he hurt more, Noriega or Perry. Looks like Noriega's ability to get all the Texas Dems behind him and win just enough suburban swing voters dissatisfied with the cloud around Perry. I'm surprised that, as the worm turned late in the race, someone out there on the hard right (lookin' at you Louie, lookin' at you) didn't try leaking more insinuations about Perry's, ahem, lifestyle choices to depress evangelical turnout and finish the job. Goodhair was always the compromise candidate, too dumb to be a danger to the TXGOP factions and acceptable to all of them as a figure in place to prevent brutal intra-party fights. But if he's going down someone might try to tip him over, use a Democratic governor as a convenient target to keep the party together (always easier to be unified in opposition) while maneuvering to get their own faction a leg up headed into the next cycle. To that suburban wife in Round Rock who said, "no, Perry just doesn't feel right and Noriega seems to keep his promises" I say thank you, thank you, thank you. And the ones in Arlington and New Braunfels and Katy, too.
 
Love to see an installment on Kinky's Perot-like presence in the race, with some demographic breakdown about where and who he hurt more, Noriega or Perry. Looks like Noriega's ability to get all the Texas Dems behind him and win just enough suburban swing voters dissatisfied with the cloud around Perry. I'm surprised that, as the worm turned late in the race, someone out there on the hard right (lookin' at you Louie, lookin' at you) didn't try leaking more insinuations about Perry's, ahem, lifestyle choices to depress evangelical turnout and finish the job. Goodhair was always the compromise candidate, too dumb to be a danger to the TXGOP factions and acceptable to all of them as a figure in place to prevent brutal intra-party fights. But if he's going down someone might try to tip him over, use a Democratic governor as a convenient target to keep the party together (always easier to be unified in opposition) while maneuvering to get their own faction a leg up headed into the next cycle. To that suburban wife in Round Rock who said, "no, Perry just doesn't feel right and Noriega seems to keep his promises" I say thank you, thank you, thank you. And the ones in Arlington and New Braunfels and Katy, too.

Don't know that I'd be able to devote an entire installment to it, but essentially, the more Democratic-leading independents who voted for Kinky in OTL 2006 saw Noriega as more credible than Bell, and thus voted for him. As a result, Friedman ended up hurting Perry more than Noriega, especially in suburban areas.

Here's the spreadsheet with the full results.
 
Don't know that I'd be able to devote an entire installment to it, but essentially, the more Democratic-leading independents who voted for Kinky in OTL 2006 saw Noriega as more credible than Bell, and thus voted for him. As a result, Friedman ended up hurting Perry more than Noriega, especially in suburban areas.

Here's the spreadsheet with the full results.

Nice spreadsheet. That makes sense -- a Perot-in-96 effect rather than a Perot-in-92 one then. That'd be pretty lethal for Goodhair.
 
7
George W. Bush said:
"Hello, yes, this is the President calling. Am I reaching..

"Governor-Elect Noriega, congratulations on your victory. It was a tough fight, and while I don't think it's a secret that I didn't vote for you, I think you'll do a fine job and I look forward to working with you."

"That's right."

"Well, next time I'm in Crawford, I'll come over and visit. I'll have my people talk with your people."

"Can I- Can I give you a piece of advice? From one Governor of Texas to another?"

"You've got to keep people on your side. The Lege, the donors, the voters. I'm not saying you shouldn't push for what you think is right, but- you've been in the House, and you know where the levers are. Just... Don't pull them too hard. Otherwise, they'll break."

"Alright. Well, I'll be seeing you."

The gubernatorial election was not the only statewide election the Democrats won in Texas. Don Willett's seat on the Texas Supreme Court was taken by El Paso judge William E. Moody. Additionally, the open seat for Agriculture Commissioner and Jerry Patterson's seat as Land Commissioner were both taken by Democrats. Lastly and most importantly, Tony Buzbee won his race for Lieutenant Governor by a margin of only 5,000 votes. His election was notable for a massive number of abstentions - many Texans saw Wayne Christian as a bigoted loon, but also saw Tony Buzbee as a drunken ambulance-chaser, and consequently voted for neither.

And not all Texan elections were statewide. The State House came close to flipping, but ended the election with a 77-73 Republican margin. The State Senate was further - there were only a few realistically winnable seats there for either party - but even there, Kathi Thomas's upset win against Jeff Wentworth offset the retirement of Kenneth Armbrister.

Additionally, the special elections for the House, if not full of surprises, at least contained some. The 2004 election had sent 21 Republicans and 11 Democrats to the Capitol. After the redistricting, only 13 Republicans were guaranteed spots in the House through their majorities, to be joined by 9 Democrats. Meanwhile, of the nine incumbents forced into runoffs, seven were Republicans, and the only Democrat running against a Republican (Charlie Gonzalez was forced into a runoff against fellow Democrat Ciro Rodriguez), Eddie Bernice Johnson, was in that position largely due to running against fellow incumbent Kenny Marchant. Marchant was, in fact, in second place in the first round, and he was joined by Ron Paul, John Carter, and Henry Bonilla there. Ted Poe, John Culberson, and Pete Sessions sat one rung up on the ladder, in first place but still having to fight for re-election in a December runoff.

There were a number of reasons for this, but by far the most significant ones were a) the LULAC v. Perry decision, which had forced Texas to redraw its congressional districts without partisan gerrymandering and b) the fact that George Bush and Rick Perry were both so massively unpopular to give Democrats good headwinds.

So, all in all, it was a good night for Texas Democrats. For probably the only times in their lives, a lot of other Democrats wished they were Texan.

To be sure, there were a few victories. In the Senate, politicians like John Morrison of Montana and Harold Ford of Tennessee all took Republican seats, while Kweisi Mfume narrowly held his Maryland seat. In Governors' mansions, in addition to the aforementioned Noriega victory, John Hickenlooper, Jim Davis, Mike Hatch, Dina Titus, Michael Coleman, and Charles Fogarty (of Colorado, Florida, Minnesota, Nevada, Ohio, and Rhode Island) all defeated Republican incumbents. And House Democrats won 226 seats and control of the House.

But the voters giveth, and the voters taketh away. Joe Lieberman won a grueling primary fight, but was defeated by Themis Klarides, State Representative and former WWE "ring girl", while George Allen of Virginia held off a challenge by Jim Webb. Maine's John Baldacci was defeated by Peter Mills, while Maryland's Bob Ehrlich narrowly won re-election after opponent Doug Duncan unexpectedly dropped out of the race, citing a recent diagnosis of clinical depression. George Pataki of New York won a fourth term, the first Governor to do so since Nelson Rockefeller, fiscal hawk and maverick Andrew Halcro won the Alaska governorship, Jim Nussle won the Iowan governorship, and Scott Walker of Wisconsin took his ham and cheese sandwiches into the Governor's Mansion.

The dust cleared. The Senate remained, due to Dick Cheney's tie-break, Republican, while the Democrats took the House - though enough seats remained in play that a Republican majority was technically possible, albeit among the longest of shots. Without much fanfare, the 2008 Presidential Election began.
 
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November 19, 2006
Laredo Sun said:
Former President Bill Clinton spoke today at a campaign rally for former Texas Secretary of State and District 23 candidate Henry Cuellar.

The rally, held in the gymnasium of United High School, drew thousands of attendees, and sources within the Cuellar campaign say that over $50,000 dollars were given to the campaign at the rally. "With less than a month to go before the runoff," said the source, "it's important to keep up enthusiasm for the candidate, especially in a race as close as this one looks."

"The choice couldn't be clearer. The candidate couldn't be better," Clinton said to a cheering audience. "You've got about three weeks to get him elected."

Laredo was the first stop on the Clintons' planned campaign tour of Texas, where they will be stumping for a number of Democratic candidates in contentious runoffs. He will be meeting his wife Hillary in Victoria tomorrow at a rally for Frank Madla, where he is running against Geanie Morrison.

While many consider the tour an early campaign tour for Senator Clinton's 2008 run, Bill professes not to see it that way. "The next election can wait until this one is over," he told reporters shortly after landing at Laredo International Airport.

"Cuellar is bringing in people from all over to speak for him," said Bonilla spokesman Phil Ricks. "We'll be focusing on the people of this district."

Code:
REPRESENTATIVES ELECTED December 12, 2006:
2 - Nick Lampson (D) def. Ted Poe (R)
7 - John Culberson (R) def. Jim Henley (D)
14 - Shane Sklar (D) def. Ron Paul (R)
20 - Ciro Rodriguez (D) def. Charlie Gonzalez (D)
22 - Geanie Morrison (R) def. Frank Madla (D)
23 - Henry Cuellar (D) def. Henry Bonilla (R)
24 - Eddie Bernice Johnson (D) def. Kenny Marchant (R)
28 - Susan Dobbs Curling (R) def. Ted Ankrum (D)
30 - Pete Sessions (R) def. Allan Vaught (D)
31 - Mary Beth Harrell (D) def. John Carter (R)
32 - Royce West (D) def. Dan Branch (R)

90

Nick Lampson, shortly after casting his vote, one of the 305 that put him over Ted Poe's vote total

Untitled.jpg

Bill Clinton shakes hands with supporters of Mary Beth Harrell at an event in Austin​
 
9
Any understanding of Texan politics in the modern era is incomplete without understanding Tom Craddick, who Texas Monthly had named the most powerful person in the state of Texas two years previously. A brilliant politician, he rose from Midland small businessman to multimillionaire and from one of only eight Republicans in the House to its speakership. Either one of those would be impressive. Doing both at the same time was almost unbelievable.

Texas Monthly had stated in 2005 that "Like him or not, it is impossible to imagine anyone but Craddick running the House for the foreseeable future." But by 2007, that sentiment seemed strange - Craddick was still massively powerful, but his position was no longer impregnable. He had alienated many of his colleagues through his autocratic style and perceived lack of caring about individual representatives - as longtime Texas journalist Paul Burka put it, "The belief of many members on both sides of the aisle is that Craddick does not care about individual members. He has been around so long (since 1969) and seen so many members pass through that what drives him is not love for the institution of the House or friendship with its members, but rather the conservative ideology and his ties to prominent Republicans and longtime friends outside the Capitol." His tireless work to destroy the Texas Democratic Party's power - culminating in his unceremonious overthrow of his predecessor as Speaker, Pete Laney - had made him, if not toxic, at least disliked among Democrats, especially the so-called WD40s (white Democrats over 40) whose negotiations over tort reform failed in spectacular fashion and who tended to be threatened more by Republicans than fellow Democrats. And he wasn't much better liked among Republicans - he was autocratic, unyielding, and locked in a long-running three-way feud with Rick Perry and David Dewhurst, as well as smaller feuds with individual members. He also did not put much of a premium on party loyalty or collegiality, using his friendship with megadonor Jim Leininger to fund primary opponents of his rivals, both within and without his party.

But 2006 was not a good year for his efforts, at least on the Republican side. Six Republicans - Roy Blake, Carter Casteel, Charlie Geren, Pat Haggerty, Delwin Jones, and Tommy Merritt - found themselves with lavishly funded primary opponents. Their crime was opposing school vouchers, a pet issue of Leininger and one of the terms of their alliance. The perception was that Tom Craddick had taken out a hit on six of his own members. But when all six members won renomination, it made Craddick seem impotent. That perception was reinforced when the Republican House that Craddick had spent almost four decades trying to bring about was nearly overcome in one day - in large part, due to the dysfunction of Republican state government.

The election of Speakers of the Texas House of Representatives has long been carried out by a slightly unusual method. Votes are cast by members of the House signing index cards, pledging their support to one member or another. This can even be done before the member is in office (although if the member is not elected, his or her vote does not count) or even before the primary. Tom Craddick gamed the rules quite effectively in 2002, at one point asking 11 candidates in two Collin County races to pledge for him. It paid off - he declared victory two days after the election.

The day after the election, it seemed like he had gamed the system again. That day, he declared his possession of 104 signatures, a full twenty-nine more than he needed. Many of those were the signatures of Democrats - chiefly from a group of about two dozen Democrats called the Craddick D's. Led by Sylvester Turner of Houston, the Craddick D's provided a bulwark against possible Republican challengers in exchange for plum committee assignments - for example, Turner got positions on the Appropriations and Calendars committees, and Robert Puente of San Antonio became chair of the Natural Resources Committee.

But on November 8, there were only two candidates - Craddick and Houston Democrat Senfronia Thompson. And on December 23, that situation changed. Brian McCall of Plano, a conservative Republican with a long history of opposition to Craddick, filed to run for Speaker.

Five days later, Craddick released a new list of pledges. But this one had only 75 names on it - a majority of one Representative. And according to McCall and Thompson, a few of those were on their lists as well.
 
10
December 27, 2006

It was raining in Austin, the kind of rain where even at noon the clouds blocked almost all of the sunlight. Joe Straus opened his car door and quickly opened his umbrella. Grabbing a small folder and checking for reporters, he made his way towards the Capitol, looming in the distance.

He knew - or at least, he suspected - that no reporters were out here. That wasn't really a function of the weather so much as the fact that nobody was going to be scouring the streets of Austin for random legislators to ask about Tom Craddick. They were going to do that in the pink building, if anywhere.

Still, it gave Straus a thrill to think about being surveilled. Like James Bond, but with a fully visible car and a license to vote. He smirked vaguely as he crossed the threshold of the Capitol and headed to his office.

Pat Haggerty was standing there. "Hey, Joe."

Joe Straus had met Pat Haggerty when Straus worked for the Customs Service. The two had been friends since 1982, and Haggerty's near-defeat to a Craddick-backed El Paso ISD incumbent had helped solidify Straus against him. This was followed shortly by Haggerty himself losing his seat to a Democrat, partly due to the withholding of Leininger funds, almost certainly on Craddick's orders. Straus had seemed, if anything, more angry about Haggerty losing than Haggerty, who had found new employment as a lobbyist almost immediately.

A lot of people had lost their seats a month ago, in fact, and in Straus's eyes that was on Craddick more than anyone else. Straus had had some respect for Craddick for his three-decade slog to bring about a Republican majority, but he had lost it for not being able to use it. He had given major tasks to people like Dwayne Bohac and Phil King who were clearly not up to the job, solely because of their loyalty, which had effectively sunk legislative priorities like property tax caps and telecom deregulation.

"Hey, Pat. How's the family?"

"Pretty good. Yours?"

"Pretty good. So, are you on the job, or..."

"Well, I'm still a Representative until the next session. So, another two weeks."

"Right, right."

Straus glanced away. He noticed that one of his pictures had fallen over, and walked toward his desk to right it. It was the picture of a nine-year-old Straus behind John Tower's desk.

"If this is about Craddick then you know I'm going to be against him. I mean, the only reason I pledged for him in the first place was because it was him or a liberal Democrat. Now that there's another option..."

"Yeah, I wasn't exactly doubting your opposition to Craddick. And, yes, that was what I was going to ask you about."

Straus put down the photograph and blinked. "What do you need me to do?"

Haggerty sighed and said, "Brian McCall ain't got the votes."

Straus internally swore. "What do you mean?"

"There are a couple of Democrats who think he's too conservative. They'd rather have a Democratic speaker, and they think they can get one."

"Lon Burnam?"

"He's leading them."

Straus looked out the window towards the Governor's Mansion. "I wouldn't have thought he would..."

"Noriega isn't behind them. He hasn't condemned them, but this thing isn't a day old. It's freshmen and bitter folks, who think that just because they got a Governor..."

"Right."

"A lot of people Noriega can't afford to lose the support of."

"So, they're backing Thompson?"

Haggerty laughed. "Thompson is releasing her pledges and backing Brian. Hopefully she'll be able to peel off a few of the members. In the meantime..."

Straus paused. "Are they actually opposing McCall? Or do they just want a compromise candidate?"

"Hard to say. Not sure there's an answer. Why?"

"Well, if they want a moderate, we can give them a moderate."
 
11
Transcribed from John Kasich's America, episode broadcast May 13, 2009

KASICH: ...That's Professor Eugene Volokh, from UCLA. Coming up next, he's been a State Representative for four decades, he was Speaker of the Texas State House from 2003 to 2007, and he's written a book - The Corridors of Power: Forty Years In Texas Politics - to tell us all about us. Here with us in Columbus, Tom Craddick.

CRADDICK: Hello, John. Thanks for having me.

KASICH: Now, I'm going to talk about your book, but first off, there were rumors a few months ago that you were in the running for Secretary of Energy. Now, obviously that didn't happen, but were you ever in the running, as far as you're aware? Did anyone talk to you, or...

CRADDICK: Well, I wasn't talked to about the job while it was still open. But a few months ago, while I was at a meeting with Secretary Tauzin, he leaned over and said, "You know, George wanted you to have this job."

KASICH: Really?

CRADDICK: Well, that's what he said. But Billy's been doing a great job, and I told him that. And I also said that I'm doing good work, still doing good work, back in Austin, and that I wouldn't give it up for the world.

KASICH: Now, you've been in the Texas House for forty years. What's changed since 1968?

CRADDICK: Well, when I was first elected to the House in 1968, there were seven other Republicans. Now, there are seventy-one. That's a few short of a majority, true, but it's a massive gain.

KASICH: Indeed it is. Now, I wanted to talk about something that happened at the very end of your Speakership. Your last campaign for Speaker, in 2006 - what was that like?

CRADDICK: Well, as Speaker, I made more than a few enemies. Some were Democrats, who had been in power since time immemorial and who were bitter about losing it. Some of them were fellow Republicans who hadn't gotten the committees they wanted or wanted their bills higher priorities or things like that. It's that... You know, you can't please everyone, especially not if you want to run a state.

KASICH: Okay.

CRADDICK: It all came together in the 2006 midterms. Huge year for Democrats, and my party lost some seats, and as the highest-ranking Republican I took the flak for it.

KASICH: How would you characterize your rivals' campaigns for the Speakership?

CRADDICK: Within the party, or just in general?

KASICH: Within the party.

CRADDICK: Well, I don't want to break the Eleventh Commandment. But the thing you have to realize is that these Republican candidates had, maybe, twenty Republican votes. They won because they had the support of a vast majority of the Democrats in the House. And that means that their priorities, almost entirely, are Democrat priorities. Raising taxes, civil unions, affirmative action.

KASICH: Okay.

CRADDICK: And you can see that very clearly in that race, because they rejected the first candidate - Brian McCall - because some Democrats thought he was too conservative. He had to be replaced with Ed Kuempel. This was all done out of smoke-filled rooms, by the way, so obviously McCall stood aside for Kuempel a few days later.

KASICH: Now, a few days after Kuempel announced, you decided to stand down as a candidate. Why is that?

CRADDICK: The House had, in 2007, a two-seat Republican majority. Two seats. We had to present a united front, so I stood down.

KASICH: I see. As of right now, you're vice-chair of the Ways and Means Committee in the House. Have you given any thought to trying for the Speakership again?

CRADDICK: I've thought about it, sure. But, I mean, I liked being Speaker, but it's not something I think I ought to do again. Certainly not now.

KASICH: Fair enough. Do you have any words for House Minority Leader Blunt, any pieces of advice?

CRADDICK: Well, all I can really say is that party unity is everything.

KASICH: That's Texas Representative Tom Craddick.

CRADDICK: Thanks for having me.

KASICH: My pleasure. Coming up next, Democrats trying to block military tribunals at Guantanamo Bay...
 
12
HOUSE JOURNAL of the REGULAR SESSION of the EIGHTIETH LEGISLATURE said:
Should we be wary of change? Perhaps. But we must not reject it out of hand. And I think that, in the fullness of time, we will find that there is less change that we feared. After all, our state is still the great state of Texas, and will always remain so. Our majestic vistas will be no less majestic. Our beautiful cities will remain beautiful. And we can make our wonderful people no less wonderful from the Capitol. All that we can do is to strive to be worthy of them.

Thank you, and may God bless you, and may God bless the great State of Texas.

At the conclusion of the lieutenant governor's address, Speaker Kuempel stated that the oath of office would be administered to the Honorable Rick Noriega, governor of the State of Texas, by the Honorable Wallace Jefferson, Chief Justice of the Supreme Court of Texas.

The Honorable Rick Noriega took the constitutional oath of office as governor of the State of Texas.

A nineteen-gun salute was fired. Speaker Kuempel introduced the governor of Texas, the Honorable Rick Noriega, to the joint session and assemblage.

Governor Noriega addressed the joint session and assemblage, speaking as follows:

Lieutenant Governor Buzbee, Speaker Kuempel, Chief Justice Jefferson, members of the legislature, my fellow Texans. The oath I just took is a solemn promise to take on an awesome responsibility. I have been given that responsibility by the people of Texas, and I shall accept it and carry it out to the best of my ability.

As I stand here, I feel immensely grateful. For my parents, Joe and Tommie, who have given me more than I can ever repay. For my wife, Melissa, who has stood by my side through thick and thin. For my sons, Alex and Ricky, for whom I feel eternally thankful. For my friends and colleagues in the House, on both sides of the aisle, whose advice I have always appreciated and whose counsel I will continue to seek. For my predecessor in this office, who has been gracious and enormously helpful in this time of change. For my comrades who fought alongside me in Afghanistan, whose drive to do their duty for their country inspires me every day. For the people across the state whose relentless optimism I will strive to live up to.

In the spirit of friendship, please join me in welcoming four special guests from Mexico, Governor Gonzalez of Nuevo Leon, Governor Hernandez of Tamaulipas, Governor Herrera of Vera Cruz, and Governor Garcia of Zacatecas.

Today marks a passing of the torch...

Governor Noriega's inaugural address was noted for its conciliatory tone. It was devoted chiefly to general goals for Texas, while policy took a backseat. It made several explicit appeals to bipartisanship. It was not triumphalist - in fact, it fit well with the serious, often grave, tone that he had adopted throughout the campaign.

It also fit well with his plans. He needed to keep Republicans on his side - they held the Senate, and the balance of the House. Additionally, he needed to prove his leadership early. To do that, he needed to bring about a bipartisan success early. That way, he had political capital to spend on later, more controversial, issues and could fend off revolts from within his own party.

After some debate, the topic of groundwater rights reform was chosen. Since the Texas Supreme Court ruled in Houston & Texas Central Railroad Company v. East in 1904, Texas's groundwater rights had been governed by the rule of capture. Essentially, whoever owned the land owned all the water below it - followed shortly by the water under their neighbors' land. Since there were no laws governing groundwater, the only decider of groundwater rights was the judiciary. The flipside of that was that a single law from the legislature could overturn a century of precedent. Noriega wanted to shepherd just that through the Legislature.

Liberals liked the idea because existing groundwater law gave too much power to corporations and caused constant environmental shenanigans. Rural conservatives liked the idea because they wanted to stop city folk taking their constituents' water from their farms. It couldn't go wrong, some whispered, could it?
 
It couldn't go wrong, some whispered, could it?
Uh-oh!

The plus side is that the drought isn't going to show up for two more years, so the fighting is not going to be that intense. Relatively speaking.

Or maybe this is a minus, and all the farms falling to pieces would have helped him? Who knows...
 
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