Illinois Senate 2004: Ryan divorce records sealed

I'd say once Obama gives the convention speech he's pretty much a lock.

Well, I doubt Obama gives the speech here. My impression at the time is that Obama was invited to give the speech at the convention precisely because of the fact that he had spent weeks without an opponent, making his victory essentially inevitable. So here, that might not happen since Ryan is still in the race.

My guess is that Ryan will lose, but he'll do a hell of a lot better than Alan Keyes did. The name issue is a bit unfair, but it was a serious problem for Jack Ryan. Governor Ryan had only left office in 2003. I remember Jack Ryan campaigning as Jack Ryan for that very reason. Plus, I think Ryan had already run into trouble for the camera thing at that point. Maybe I'm colored by what actually happened, but my guess is that Ryan loses.

So, Obama goes to the senate. But without the convention speech there's no reason for Obama to enter the Presidential race, and no pressure for him to do so. Clinton wins the Democratic nomination, and is elected President in 2008.
 
Well, I doubt Obama gives the speech here. My impression at the time is that Obama was invited to give the speech at the convention precisely because of the fact that he had spent weeks without an opponent, making his victory essentially inevitable. So here, that might not happen since Ryan is still in the race.
Surely Ryan remaining in the race would increas Obama's incentive to have the speech and the Democratic Party's incentive to give it to him, so as to sure up that seat for the Dems?
 
He'll definitely have a speech at the '04 convention, but not the keystone speech. It'll probably be one of those early afternoon ones that is overlooked.

2004 was a Democratic year in Illinois, so Obama still wins, but it'll be a closer election in TTL (of course). Remember, he's still the only African-American Senator at this time, and unlike his predecessor Moseley-Braun, will be treated quite well on every talk show and have a natural cult of personality formed anyway.

By 2008, he'll have *some* pressure to run for the Presidency, and may even give it a small try. But he'll at best get the running mate position and more likely a cabinet post (if he accepts it) in the almost certain Democratic presidency to follow.

If he stays in the Senate, he'll be running come 2016 (or 2012 if the President is Hillary Clinton/Chris Dodd/John Edwards/maybe Joe Biden).
 
The only way to have the Illinois Senate Seat a safe Republican hold is to have former Governor Jim Edgar running. He was still very popular, and it was due to his rumoured heart problems that he decided against a win; his quite moderate views count too.

I can see Barack running for Governor in 2010. Or for Mayor of Chicago instead of Rahmbo in 2011.
 
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