Italy's entry into WW2 was almost comical in its lack of planning and misguided objectives.
Mussolini declared "I only need a few thousand dead so that I can sit at the peace conference as a man who has fought" and so cast his hand against Britain and France in June 1940.
On June 20th the Mussolini's troops crossed the border into France.
In August the Italians invaded and occupied British Somali-land with light resistance.
In September, the Italians invaded Egypt.
Nothing went right for the Italians.
By the time they got their campaign against the French started, that war was as good as over.
Besides which , they got stuck in mountain passes and snow storms.
The only "spoils" the Italians got from France were Corsica and the Alpes-Maritimes province.
Italy's colonies in the Horn of Africa were in a precarious position from the day war was declared since there is no way of communication and supply unless you run the long gauntlet of the Royal Navy past Gibraltar and around the Cape.
Italy had 14 divisions in Libya but they were woefully prepared.
A whole division got literally "lost" just crossing the frontier into Egypt!
The Italian armies staggered a hundred kilometers or so and then encamped at Sidi Barani.
The troops were so lacking in basic transport that the Italian General Graziani was reduced to begging for 600 mules from Rome!
None of this makes any sense if one starts with assumption that the British are unlikely to capitulate to Germany as long as Churchill is leader.
I am not sure if Mussolini ever met Churchill but there must have been somebody influential in Italy or abroad who could give the Fascist leader a realistic appraisal of the situation and Churchill's character.
Let's assume a PoD of June 1st 1940.
The world can see the writing on the wall for France and Mussolini is keen for a piece of the action.
HOWEVER, wise advisers to Il Duce inform him that Britain has no intention of surrendering and Germany (for all Hitler/Goering's bluster) will have a tough time mounting a successful invasion.
Further, he is told that the strategic situation in the HoA (Horn of Africa) is precarious and overall supplies of critical raw materials for war are low.
Mussolini decides to bide his time and see how Operation SeaLion works out. Throughout the remainder of 1940 he stockpiles military supplies in the HoA and Libya.
He thinks about launching an attack on Greece in October but with winter approaching and his reservists needed for the fall harvest season, he also puts that idea on hold.
By Jan 1941, SeaLion has been shelved and Hitler is getting his ducks in a row for Operation Barbarossa.
Hypersensitive as always about RAF attacks on his supplies of fuel from the Romanian oil fields, Hitler asks Mussolini for a meeting to determine what can be done to remove the British presence from the Eastern Mediterranean.
The two hatch a plan to send two Panzer divisions, two motorized divisions and significant Luftwaffe units to Libya, headed by Erwin Rommel (similar to OTL).
These will join the Italians who comprise the bulk of the armed forces and with the overall command of the campaign led by Marshal Italo Balbo.
The operational aim is to launch the attack from Eastern Libya in March 1941, cross the Egyptian border and drive onward to first Cairo and then cross the Suez canal.
From that point, Rommel's troops will continue on to Jerusalem and wrap up Palestine (the propaganda value of making the Jewish Holy Land a Nazi trophy is irresistible to the Fuhrer).
Meanwhile, the Italians will turn inland and push up the Nile valley, eventually driving the British out of Sudan and linking up with the Italian colonies in the HoA.
British Somaliland, Malta and Cypress are all abandoned by the British as being indefensible (plus there is the need to move forces to the Far East as the Japanese begin to act more threatening in the later part of 1941).
With Suez and the HoA in Axis hands, the path is open for and aggressive Italian/German submarine campaign in the Indian Ocean in 1942.
All this is possible if Mussolini had waited until 1941 and entered the war in a more prepared and co-ordinated manner with his Axis partner.
Please comment and critique.