Ike killed during 1960 visit to Japan

For background, see http://www.unc.edu/depts/diplomat/AD_Issues/amdipl_13/sarantakes3.html

"The attack on Hagerty and the bloody riots of June 15 led many Americans to believe that that Eisenhower's trip would play a large role in determining the fate of Japanese democracy and orientation in the Cold War. Columnists Max Lerner and Harold Martin thought the President was putting his life in jeopardy with the visit. Many other journalists agreed that the President would be in danger. The trip was now a high-level gamble, but most observers thought Eisenhower had few options; the future of Japan was at stake and this was worth the risk he was taking with his life. 27 The editors of the Washington Evening Star disagreed and asked him to call off the trip. 'We think that Mr. Eisenhower, in the light of all that has happened, ought not to go to Tokyo.' 28

Eisenhower cancels Japan trip

As Americans debated the merits of the presidential expedition, Eisenhower began heeding the concerns he and others had and initiated efforts to cancel the trip. He had little concern about the future of Japanese democracy, but wanted to avoid being pulled into an internal Japanese dispute. Herter instructed MacArthur [Ambassador Douglas MacArthur II, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Douglas_MacArthur_II nephew and namesake of the general--DT] to meet with Kishi and tell him that unless he could guarantee the President's safety, the Prime Minister should request that the President delay his visit until another time. The ambassador did as instructed and Kishi stalled; his political survival was at stake. But the police had informed him that there was no way they could promise with a hundred percent certainty that there would be no attacks on Eisenhower; guarding the 11.6 mile route between the airport and the palace was beyond their resources. After the riot of June 15, Kishi had to admit defeat and formally requested that the President postpone his visit. 29"

Let's say Eisenhower (with Kishi's agreement) follows the advice of those who said that, whatever the risks, he had to proceed with the trip--to do otherwise would be to surrender to mob rule, etc. Let's further suppose that despite the best efforts of the Japanese police, he is killed during the trip. Vice President Nixon becomes President Nixon, and the advantage of incumbency--especially as the successor to the martyred Ike--should enable him to defeat JFK in November. Or is it even certain that JFK will be his opponent? LBJ's argument that someone with greater "maturity", foreign policy experience, etc. than JFK is needed in such a dangerous world may be more persuasive to the Democrats than in OTL.

As for the consequences in Japan, Kishi's failure to protect Ike may seal his own political doom, but he was doomed in OTL already, and presumably the LDP wins the new elections at least as heavily as in OTL--probably more so, if Ike's assassin is linked with the Left.
 
Extreme embarrassment for Japan. A severe crackdown on the Japanese left, and on Communist parties all around the world. Because this is really big: the murder of a major head of government by Communists. If they'll do that, what else might they do? Socialists all around the world and in Japan will support this crackdown - to distance themselves from those mad dogs.

Incidentally, how does the mob actually kill Ike? Unlike Hagerty, Ike will have armed Secret Service and Marine escorts who will open fire if necessary to protect him.

Nixon is elected President, and supports the Bay of Pigs operation to the hilt.
 
34. Dwight D. Eisenhower (Republican), 1953-1960
1952: Adlai Stevenson (Democratic)
1956: Adlai Stevenson (Democratic)

35. Richard M. Nixon (Republican), 1960-1965
1960: Hubert Humphrey (Democratic)
36. Stuart Symington (Democratic), 1965-1973
1964: Henry C. Lodge (Republican)
1968: George Romney (Republican), George Wallace (American Independent)

37. Edmund Muskie (Democratic), 1973-1977
1972: Gerald Ford (Republican)
38. Bob Dole (Republican), 1977-1985
1976: Edmund Muskie (Democratic)
1980: Birch Bayh (Democratic) (Dole Lost Popular vote, but won Electoral college)

39. Walter Mondale (Democratic), 1985-1993
1984: Howard Baker (Republican)
1988: Paul Laxalt (Republican)

40. Michael Dukakis (Democratic), 1993-1997
1992: Dan Quayle (Republican)
41. Lamar Alexander (Republican), 1997-2005
1996: Michael Dukakis (Democratic), Pat Buchanan (Heritage)
2000: Joe Biden (Democratic), Gary Bauer (Heritage)

42. Dick Lugar (Republican), 2005-2009
2004: Dick Gephardt (Democratic)
43. Evan Bayh (Democratic), 2009-2013
2008: Dick Lugar (Republican)
44. Mitt Romney (Republican), 2013-2017
2012: Evan Bayh (Democratic), Rick Santorum (Heritage)
45. Jeff Merkley (Democratic), 2017-2025
2016: Mitt Romney (Republican), Ted Cruz (Heritage)
2020: Marco Rubio (Republican)

46. Nikki Haley (Republican), 2025-
2024: Alan Grayson (Democratic)
 
34. Dwight D. Eisenhower (Republican), 1953-1960
1952: Adlai Stevenson (Democratic)
1956: Adlai Stevenson (Democratic)

35. Richard M. Nixon (Republican), 1960-1965
1960: Hubert Humphrey (Democratic)
36. Stuart Symington (Democratic), 1965-1973
1964: Henry C. Lodge (Republican)
1968: George Romney (Republican), George Wallace (American Independent)

37. Edmund Muskie (Democratic), 1973-1977
1972: Gerald Ford (Republican)
38. Bob Dole (Republican), 1977-1985
1976: Edmund Muskie (Democratic)
1980: Birch Bayh (Democratic) (Dole Lost Popular vote, but won Electoral college)

39. Walter Mondale (Democratic), 1985-1993
1984: Howard Baker (Republican)
1988: Paul Laxalt (Republican)

40. Michael Dukakis (Democratic), 1993-1997
1992: Dan Quayle (Republican)
41. Lamar Alexander (Republican), 1997-2005
1996: Michael Dukakis (Democratic), Pat Buchanan (Heritage)
2000: Joe Biden (Democratic), Gary Bauer (Heritage)

42. Dick Lugar (Republican), 2005-2009
2004: Dick Gephardt (Democratic)
43. Evan Bayh (Democratic), 2009-2013
2008: Dick Lugar (Republican)
44. Mitt Romney (Republican), 2013-2017
2012: Evan Bayh (Democratic), Rick Santorum (Heritage)
45. Jeff Merkley (Democratic), 2017-2025
2016: Mitt Romney (Republican), Ted Cruz (Heritage)
2020: Marco Rubio (Republican)

46. Nikki Haley (Republican), 2025-
2024: Alan Grayson (Democratic)

This is ASB. Obama would've been elected in '08, regardless of butterflies.
 
Allow me to throw in a further spice to this WI. What happens if it's some ultra-nationalists that kill Eisenhower?
Same as above, save replacing Commies with ultranationalists.

Might also see the US pressing really hard on them now, because getting caught killing a President, especially a war hero president.... Hoh boy.
 
Changundramon said:
Allow me to throw in a further spice to this WI. What happens if it's some ultra-nationalists that kill Eisenhower?
Same as above, save replacing Commies with ultranationalists.

Hardly the same. First, the international consequences are entirely different: Japanese reactionaries have no connection to an important world-wide movement. Japanese Communists kill Ike; Nixon responds by striking at the Communist threat in Cuba.

Incidentally, in that case there would be an obvious connection (especially to Nixon) between Ike's death in Japan and Nixon's own experience in Venezuela in 1958, when his visit was interrupted by anti-American violence so alarming that the U.S. command in Puerto Rico made plans for a rescue mission.

If the incident in Japan does not involve Communists, there is no such connection, nor are parallel threats seen in other countries where Communists are active. Who would Nixon strike back against?

Also, of course, the internal effects in Japan are massively different. If the attack is by reactionaries, that is going to discredit the Japanese right, and have no effect against the Japanese Left. While the ruling Liberal Democrats would not be directly connected, their prestige would be damaged - if only by the failure to prevent the calamity, and almost certainly by rumors of complicity by police or security.

It would very likely throw the next election to the Socialists.
 
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