Manchuria was pretty much a fief of the Imperial Japanese Army, and the Japanese wanted their cut of territory as well. They historically tried to do so with the January 28th incident but that didn't work out too well for them.
What if the Imperial Japanese Navy had grabbed Shanghai and Hainan in 1932/1933 in order to compete with the Imperial Japanese Army in terms of prestige and funding (more territory = needing more money).
Hainan and Shanghai are far more important to the west than Manchuria was.
Still, after the historic capture of Hainan it took the US 4 months to give notice regarding the end of trade agreements, a few more months to limit the shipping of aircraft materials, 18 months to embargo scrap iron from Japan (September 1940) and 28 months (July 1941) for Japanese assets to be frozen and for the fuel embargo to happen. Ergo, Japan won't feel the squeeze until 1935 or so.
In the 1933-1935 period the US economy is in the gutter completely and the country may not be willing to limit export revenues. Britain isn't that much better off either. France is doing okay economically, but they can't face Japan alone and the third republic wasn't the most stable entity politically.
What if the Imperial Japanese Navy had grabbed Shanghai and Hainan in 1932/1933 in order to compete with the Imperial Japanese Army in terms of prestige and funding (more territory = needing more money).
Hainan and Shanghai are far more important to the west than Manchuria was.
Still, after the historic capture of Hainan it took the US 4 months to give notice regarding the end of trade agreements, a few more months to limit the shipping of aircraft materials, 18 months to embargo scrap iron from Japan (September 1940) and 28 months (July 1941) for Japanese assets to be frozen and for the fuel embargo to happen. Ergo, Japan won't feel the squeeze until 1935 or so.
In the 1933-1935 period the US economy is in the gutter completely and the country may not be willing to limit export revenues. Britain isn't that much better off either. France is doing okay economically, but they can't face Japan alone and the third republic wasn't the most stable entity politically.