If WWI breaks out in 1917, is a compromise peace more likely?

Oh, certainly. Of course, that would have its own consequences--such as France and Russia possibly becoming desperate to make peace as soon as possible due to a fear of being defeated by the CPs.

Britain being more sympathetic/supportive towards the CP does not mean they'd nessicerily join the war directly. Sure, you'd probably see lopsided sale of war material and supply of credit, but why bleed to weaken your rivals when Hans is willing to do it for you? Actually jumping into a major war without a solid Causus Belli, especially given the tenuous domestic situation in Britain at the time (The Irish Crisis being seen as far more important) would be politically problematic
 

The Avenger

Banned
Yeah, typo on my part. I was talking about the Anglo-Japanese alliance.

OK; good.

(P.S.: Please fix your typo. I know, I'm a total Grammar Nazi! ;) )

The allegiances of the Balkan nations are the important known unknowns here. Bulgaria might be content with another round against Serbia over Macedonia, or it could join Russia's side and drive for the Straits.

Would Russia actually allow Bulgaria to get the Straits, though?

If the Ottomans face a two-front conflict in the Caucasus and Thrace, then the Ottomans might hesitate to join the conflict. It seems more prudent to follow Turkey's WW2 policy of trying to play each side off each other for as long as possible to preserve its independence. Maybe they would declare in the last 6 months or so on the side of the likely winner to grab some minor territorial concessions.

So, a lot depends on what Bulgaria does, eh?
 

The Avenger

Banned
Britain being more sympathetic/supportive towards the CP does not mean they'd nessicerily join the war directly. Sure, you'd probably see lopsided sale of war material and supply of credit, but why bleed to weaken your rivals when Hans is willing to do it for you? Actually jumping into a major war without a solid Causus Belli, especially given the tenuous domestic situation in Britain at the time (The Irish Crisis being seen as far more important) would be politically problematic
I agree that if war breaks out in 1917 Britain is more likely than not to sit it out. I'm less sure about 1927 or 1937 or 1947 due to Russia's growing power, though.
 
I agree that if war breaks out in 1917 Britain is more likely than not to sit it out. I'm less sure about 1927 or 1937 or 1947 due to Russia's growing power, though.

Well, that depends on Russia's post-war trajectory, but given the very title of this thread says the war breaks out in 1917 I fail to see how that's relevant.
 
OK; good.

(P.S.: Please fix your typo. I know, I'm a total Grammar Nazi! ;) )



Would Russia actually allow Bulgaria to get the Straits, though?



So, a lot depends on what Bulgaria does, eh?
Serbia and Bulgaria likely wouldn't cooperate with each other after the 2nd Balkan war, so Russia might be forced to choose between them. Serbia would be the more useful anti-Austrian ally, and Bulgaria the more useful anti-Ottoman state.
 
Serbia and Bulgaria likely wouldn't cooperate with each other after the 2nd Balkan war, so Russia might be forced to choose between them. Serbia would be the more useful anti-Austrian ally, and Bulgaria the more useful anti-Ottoman state.

If Russia wants the Straits, than she's siding with Serbia. It was long-standing policy that either Russia should possess Konstantinye, but if they can't than having the anemic Ottomans in charge was the next best thing, and Bulgaria had some rather strong ambitions on it. I imagine the Balkans are going to keep smoldering in the inter-war years, so its possible we also see a 3rd Balkan War breaking out (Or the Great Powers step in to mediate a permanent set of borders), possibly due to Italian (To get influence via their Albanian client) or Russian (To try to get control over the Straits; its main export artery especially for the rapidly industrializing Donbas coal and Baku oil regions) meddling. In whatever case, the British (Without WW I alliance with Russia) are likely to bolster continued Turkish control of the Straits, and the Germans also have increased interest in the area (The Ottomans being a great investment vechile and a useful baton to wave at the Russians)
 
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