If WWI breaks out in 1917, is a compromise peace more likely?

The Avenger

Banned
If World War I would have broken out in the late 1910s--with Britain remaining neutral in World War I--instead of in 1914, would there have been a greater chance of World War I ending in a compromise peace in comparison to our TL?

Basically, I'm thinking of this scenario: Franz Ferdinand survives the assassination attempt on his life in 1914 (and so does his wife). Thus, war is averted in 1914. After Franz Joseph dies and Franz Ferdinand comes to power in Austria-Hungary, he makes plans to implement universal suffrage in Hungary. This causes Hungary's elites to decide to secede from Austria-Hungary--thus sparking an Austro-Hungarian civil war. In response to this war, Serbia will invade Bosnia and Herzegovina, Vojvodina, and northern Croatia--ostensibly to aid Franz Ferdinand in his fight against Hungary but actually to make a land grab for itself. I suppose that Romania could also invade Transylvania on these same grounds at the same time in this scenario. Anyway, when Serbia and perhaps Romania as well refuse to withdraw from their territorial conquests, Austria (which has now reconquered Hungary) declares war on them, thus causing Russia to declare war on Austria, Germany to declare war on Russia, and France to declare war on Germany. Since 1917 is too late to use the Schlieffen Plan (due to Russia's growing military might), Germany declines to invade Belgium in this scenario and instead focuses on an East-first strategy (something which is also necessitated by Austria's troubles). Thus, Britain remains neutral in this TL's World War I.

Anyway, would there be a greater chance of World War I ending in a compromise peace in this TL in comparison to our TL?

After all, with Britain--and thus the U.S.--remaining neutral, the Entente are denied a large source of manpower (and hope). Meanwhile, since the Schlieffen Plan would not be used by Germany in this TL (since it would have become outdated by 1917), Germany would have no hope of a quick victory--thus forcing Germany to choose between a compromise peace and a long, drawn-out war which it has no guarantee of winning. Would Germany have been willing to fight for years in a war of attrition with France and Russia, or would it have tried looking for a graceful way to exit this war with dignity?

Any thoughts on all of this?
 

The Avenger

Banned
Also, for what it's worth, I thought about having Russia outright support Hungary in 1917 during an Austro-Hungarian civil war in this TL, but I thought that it would be unlikely for the simple reason that such an alliance would be difficult to sell to Russia's ally France. While Hungary's poor treatment of its own Slavic population could be overlooked (after all, autocratic Russia allied with republican France due to shared interests), it would probably be a very difficult sell to France to fight and die on behalf of a country (Hungary) that grants suffrage to only 6% of its total population.

This is why I think that, if war does break out, it will be the result of Russia giving a blank check to Serbia and/or Romania to expand at Hungary's expense during an Austro-Hungarian civil war in 1917.
 
Why would FF want to declare war on Romania and Serbia, despite the fact that he knows that the territories they have now conquered are simply not going back to Hungary? Wasn't weakening Hungarian influence within the empire his plan?
 

The Avenger

Banned
Why would FF want to declare war on Romania and Serbia, despite the fact that he knows that the territories they have now conquered are simply not going back to Hungary? Wasn't weakening Hungarian influence within the empire his plan?
AFAIK, he wanted to weaken Hungarian influence by implementing universal suffrage in Hungary. That doesn't mean that he was OK with losing any of the territories that he inherited from Franz Joseph.
 
AFAIK, he wanted to weaken Hungarian influence by implementing universal suffrage in Hungary. That doesn't mean that he was OK with losing any of the territories that he inherited from Franz Joseph.
But he was OK with diminishing the territories owned by the Hungarians and giving more pieces of the pie to the Croats and Czechs. Seeming that he also opposed war with Serbia, i can see him letting it be if it comes to Romanian and Serbian irredenta.
 

The Avenger

Banned
But he was OK with diminishing the territories owned by the Hungarians and giving more pieces of the pie to the Croats and Czechs. Seeming that he also opposed war with Serbia, i can see him letting it be if it comes to Romanian and Serbian irredenta.
AFAIK, he wanted the Croats and Czechs to remain within Austria-Hungary. They could be autonomous as long as they remained within A-H.

Also, Yes, FF could agree to give up these territories, but this could create a precedent--for instance, with Italy and/or Russia asking A-H for territorial concessions later on.
 
AFAIK, he wanted the Croats and Czechs to remain within Austria-Hungary. They could be autonomous as long as they remained within A-H.

Also, Yes, FF could agree to give up these territories, but this could create a precedent--for instance, with Italy and/or Russia asking A-H for territorial concessions later on.
Sure, it could lead to a precedent, but the key issue here, i feel, is what Franz wants to prioritize. War with Russia and Serbia, or trimming the empire's borders?
 
Sure, it could lead to a precedent, but the key issue here, i feel, is what Franz wants to prioritize. War with Russia and Serbia, or trimming the empire's borders?

Based on OP's description, we're talking about a lot more than 'trimming borders'. This is the entirety of Transylvania annexed to Rumania, Bosnia gone, Croatia gone, Bukovina likely gone. I don't see Franz just shrugging his shoulders and going, "Oh well, at least now there's less troublesome minorities to worry about!"

Prestige is still important, too, often more important than I feel people give it credit for. Losing so much land to a handful of "small Balkan countries" will be seen as shameful.

That said, the premise is still rather faulty. For starters, Franz survives the assassination attempt, but this of course means an attempt was still made, and it was still orchestrated by the Black Hand, so it's more than likely that Austria is still going to make demands of Serbia. Even if they do not make demands of Serbia, we're still going to see an enormous cooling of relations between the two countries, even moreso than OTL, so it's unlikely Serbia will do anything to 'aid' Austria in putting down Hungary (I know the supposition is that Serbia's aid is only a ruse, but Austria won't buy that).

I wonder if we could see the Black Hand increase activities in Bosnia (either via Young Bosnia or another group) during the civil war? I was always under the impression that the Croats and Slovenes weren't particularly restive during this period, so I don't see any important rebellions occuring there or in Bohemia.
 

The Avenger

Banned
Based on OP's description, we're talking about a lot more than 'trimming borders'. This is the entirety of Transylvania annexed to Rumania, Bosnia gone, Croatia gone, Bukovina likely gone. I don't see Franz just shrugging his shoulders and going, "Oh well, at least now there's less troublesome minorities to worry about!"

To be fair, a lot will depend on just how successful Serbia and Romania will be in their military campaigns against Hungary. That said, though, given their common border with Hungary, I would certainly expect them--especially Serbia--to advance quite a bit into Hungary before Austrian troops can get there.

Prestige is still important, too, often more important than I feel people give it credit for. Losing so much land to a handful of "small Balkan countries" will be seen as shameful.

Bingo!

I mean, when you agree to make these sorts of concessions, you're only opening the door for other powers to demand similar concessions. For instance, Italy could demand Trentino, Trieste, and Istria while Russia could demand Galicia and Subcarpathian Ruthenia and Serbia--being unhappy with how much territory it has already acquired--could also demand Dalmatia (which Italy might also claim) and Slovenia.

It's like with Romania in 1940 in our TL--once Bessarabia and Bukovina were conceded to the Soviet Union, Hungary also made its own territorial claims on Romania and got a large part of what it wanted.

That said, the premise is still rather faulty. For starters, Franz survives the assassination attempt, but this of course means an attempt was still made, and it was still orchestrated by the Black Hand, so it's more than likely that Austria is still going to make demands of Serbia. Even if they do not make demands of Serbia, we're still going to see an enormous cooling of relations between the two countries, even moreso than OTL,

I was thinking that Franz Ferdinand would use his influence at court to prevent war between Austria-Hungary and Serbia in 1914 in this TL. After all, AFAIK, he didn't want to risk a war with Russia.

so it's unlikely Serbia will do anything to 'aid' Austria in putting down Hungary (I know the supposition is that Serbia's aid is only a ruse, but Austria won't buy that).

Austria doesn't have to buy that. As long as Serbia gets Russia's and France's approval (or at least acquiescence) for this move, it's good to go. Same with Romania.

I wonder if we could see the Black Hand increase activities in Bosnia (either via Young Bosnia or another group) during the civil war? I was always under the impression that the Croats and Slovenes weren't particularly restive during this period, so I don't see any important rebellions occuring there or in Bohemia.

Agreed that Bosnia is likely to be full of revolutionary activity during Austria-Hungary's civil war in this TL. As for Croatia, Slovenia, and Bohemia, I also completely agree with you. However, please keep in mind that Serbia didn't need permission from Croats and Slovenes to capture the territories that they lived in.
 
Agreed that Bosnia is likely to be full of revolutionary activity during Austria-Hungary's civil war in this TL. As for Croatia, Slovenia, and Bohemia, I also completely agree with you. However, please keep in mind that Serbia didn't need permission from Croats and Slovenes to capture the territories that they lived in.

No, but that's pushing Serbian troops a lot deeper into Austrian territory than I believe is realistic, and you'd have resistance by the Croats and Slovenes against the Serbian advance as well. You'd also have to take into consideration just how much manpower each faction would have in relation to the others. Frankly the civil war itself seems like a good starting point for a 'Great War' without the later Austrian declarations on Romania and Serbia.

If Austria-Hungary is collapsing badly enough that the Serbs can reach Croatia, why doesn't Italy jump in to 'stabilise' their irredenta? Why doesn't Germany move in to aid Austria? Is Bulgaria going to seize upon the chance to take land from Serbia, and Romania? If that happens, what does Russia do? Does Russia try and get their slice of Galicia regardless, thus creating an untenable situation with Germany?
 

The Avenger

Banned
No, but that's pushing Serbian troops a lot deeper into Austrian territory than I believe is realistic, and you'd have resistance by the Croats and Slovenes against the Serbian advance as well. You'd also have to take into consideration just how much manpower each faction would have in relation to the others. Frankly the civil war itself seems like a good starting point for a 'Great War' without the later Austrian declarations on Romania and Serbia.

I'm in total agreement with all of your points here.

If Austria-Hungary is collapsing badly enough that the Serbs can reach Croatia, why doesn't Italy jump in to 'stabilise' their irredenta? Why doesn't Germany move in to aid Austria? Is Bulgaria going to seize upon the chance to take land from Serbia, and Romania? If that happens, what does Russia do? Does Russia try and get their slice of Galicia regardless, thus creating an untenable situation with Germany?

Everything that you wrote here makes perfect sense! Of course, Russia probably won't stop at Galicia but would also insist on Subcarpathian Ruthenia as well.

Now, back to my original question here--would be a compromise peace in this TL's WWI be more likely than a compromise peace in our TL's WWI? After all, there is no Schlieffen Plan in this TL's WWI and thus Britain--and the U.S.--remains neutral.
 

The Avenger

Banned
If Russia is even close to the Beast Mode the Germans feared in 1917, you might get a pro-CP Britain.
Oh, certainly. Of course, that would have its own consequences--such as France and Russia possibly becoming desperate to make peace as soon as possible due to a fear of being defeated by the CPs.
 
If Russia is even close to the Beast Mode the Germans feared in 1917, you might get a pro-CP Britain.
This would put Japan in an interesting situation. Japan might honor the Anglo-Japanese alliance and follow Britain's lead in joining the Central Powers. Then, we'd see a very interesting conflict in Africa, Asia, and the Middle East. I doubt that the French alone could cut off or conquer all of Germany's colonies, so Von Letter-Vorbeck might not get his chance to shine.

Asia would look interesting depending on how neutral China and the Ottomans are. In a Russia vs Anglo-Japanese alliance conflict, Manchuria and Persia-Afghanistan could become possible fronts. The Ottoman Empire would likely be a pro-British neutral in this scenario. The Ottomans had ordered a series of warships from the UK that were supposed to be delivered in 1914. Churchill pulled out of the deal, and diverted the ships to reinforce the British Navy. The Ottoman's feeling of betrayal helped sway them towards buying warships from Germany, then joining the Central Powers.
 
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The Avenger

Banned
This would put Japan in an interesting situation. Tokyo might honor its alliance with Japan

With Britain, not with Japan. Japan can't have an alliance with itself.

and follow Britain's lead in joining the Central Powers. Then, we'd see a very interesting conflict in Africa, Asia, and the Middle East. I doubt that the French alone could cut off or conquer all of Germany's colonies, so Von Letter-Vorbeck might not get his chance to shine.

If Russia and France are fighting an alliance of Britain, Germany, Austria, Japan, and perhaps the Ottomans and Bulgaria as well, then they are probably going to look for peace at the earliest possible opportunity. Heck, if Britain makes it clear before the war that it will fight on the side of the CP, this might be enough to deter Russia and France from sparking--or escalating--this war in the first place.

Asia would look interesting depending on how neutral China and the Ottomans are. In a Russia vs Anglo-Japanese alliance conflict, Manchuria and Persia-Afghanistan could become possible fronts. The Ottoman Empire would likely be a pro-British neutral in this scenario. The Ottomans had ordered a series of warships from the UK that were supposed to be delivered in 1914. Churchill pulled out of the deal, and diverted the ships to reinforce the British Navy. The Ottoman's feeling of betrayal helped sway them towards buying warships from Germany, then joining the Central Powers.

If both Britain and Germany are CPs in this TL, couldn't the Ottomans still going the CPs?
 
With Britain, not with Japan. Japan can't have an alliance with itself.
Yeah, typo on my part. I was talking about the Anglo-Japanese alliance.

With Britain, not with Japan. Japan can't have an alliance with itself.



If both Britain and Germany are CPs in this TL, couldn't the Ottomans still going the CPs?
The allegiances of the Balkan nations are the important known unknowns here. Bulgaria might be content with another round against Serbia over Macedonia, or it could join Russia's side and drive for the Straits.
If the Ottomans face a two-front conflict in the Caucasus and Thrace, then the Ottomans might hesitate to join the conflict. It seems more prudent to follow Turkey's WW2 policy of trying to play each side off each other for as long as possible to preserve its independence. Maybe they would declare in the last 6 months or so on the side of the likely winner to grab some minor territorial concessions.
 
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