I agree totally. In fact, there is only one thing there that I disagree with. The next UK general election was due to happen in 1915 due to the Parliament Act of 1911, and not in 1917. Everything else I agree with. I am sure that in 1914, it looked like the liberals were going to loose that election, not least of all due to the divisive issue of Irish Home Rule. Now if Franz Ferdinand had not been assassinated, and with no war in 1914, could there have been a civil war in Britain between the Irish Nationalists, Liberals and Labour on one side, and the Tories & Ulster Unionists on the other? If so, that would have major ramifications if that had happened? If not, then apart from the Tories winning in 1915, what else would have happened? And, what would the new attitudes of the Tory administration be to relations between Continental powers.
Also, if WW1 had still not happened by 1916, what would the effects of the 1916 Reichstag election be? Could you finally see an SPD majority in the Reichstag and/or a left wing chancellor imposed on the Kaiser? Was there a constitutional crisis waiting just up the road between the Kaiser and the left wing? But if there had been a major power transfer from Kaiser to Reichstag, and from right to left, would such a Germany want to get involved in any war that crops up, such as maybe an Austro-Hungarian war in which an unassasinated Franz Ferdinand tries to federalise Austria-Hungary only for the chauvinistic Hungarians to object?
I would put my money on that Austro-Hungarian War in which Franz Ferdindand's attempts to federalize the Empire are supported by the non-Hungarian ethnic groups but opposed by the Hungarians. Thus you have the civil war, and Russia might get drawn in trying to encourage Serbia to invade the southern slavic territories of the Empire? If they loose this war, there would definitely be a revolution (hopefully a non-Bolshevist one) but whether there would already be one before then, I don't know.
Yes, 1915, I was relying upon the faulty gray cells! Having read Pipisme and getting his opinion, it appears the Conservative would win that election but likely need support from the Unionists to form a coalition government. You have the likelihood that the 6 Counties are "temporarily" left out of "Dominion" Ireland. All that certainly gives us an exciting domestic backdrop beginning in 1914 to this election and beyond. I am not convinced it goes to civil war with no Great War here but I think the UK has a very rocky path ahead. I am not well read enough by far to opine what this Tory government does, but my stating assumptions are that it looks to preserve the Empire first and barring a genuine threat to that it takes a far more "isolationist" stance concerning the continental squabbles.
The other big debate might be over protectionism versus free trade as the Empire takes on more importance to Parliament, all as it struggles to reconcile North and South Ireland. I am still trying to predict how the British economy might do. Still over reliant on finance and Pound power? Unbalanced industry? Losing the race to the Germans and Americans? And now the emerging Russians, A-H and Japanese competitors?
And no matter how cliché it may be, I think Germany was poised for a shift in its democracy. The war likely accelerated it and warped it, I think it would certainly look like a crisis, but I think it does not get to 1848 levels, the SPD shows no signs of working outside the system unless it is forced to and I think the reactionaries of this era are just not in a position to provoke a civil war over it. Begrudgingly I think Wilhelm II gets dragged into a left leaning democracy that renews the welfare state, and it can use Bismarck as its guiding light! Seriously, I think Germany takes a massive shift away from the game of kings, war in future will actually be more dressed ideological and quietly tied to the notions of politicians, just like in the USA. The SPD may be hawkish or not, depends on the issue. We might see economic issues get more attention than pride of place. And here too we must question where the German industrial juggernaut goes.
I do not think A-H goes full civil war but it too should have one of its deepest inner crisis over any reforms from FF. Assuming he still gets killed in 1914, you still have the change of throne once FJ dies, A-H has a tormented future no matter what we do. But how fun to have this multi-ethnic state survive into a future Europe?