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Let’s say George W. Bush decides not to run for President in 2000. Invent your own reason - he loves being governor too much. His mother has health problems early. He develops a friendship with Bill Clinton and takes the impeachment too hard. He never sells the Rangers. Or he just decides he isn’t up for it.
Let’s say for argument’s sake that he refused to pardon a group of people who were scheduled to be executed and it turned out every one of them was proven innocent postmortem. Because of it, he’s untouchable.
Who runs in 2000 for the GOP? Do they beat Gore? And what are their chances of getting re-elected? (Probably guaranteed with 9/11 and it’s unlikely to produce a third GOP term in 2008 if the economy goes to shit as it did.)
My thoughts are Jeb or McCain but I know the list was pretty wide-open without Dubya.