If Trump Ran In 2012

Suppose that Trump made good on his idea to run in 2012, would he have done as well as he did in 2016? And if so, how would he fare in the general?
 
He would likely get defeated by Romney. The GOP wasn't as radicalized yet. It's likely that he further weakens Romney going into the General Election and forces him to tack to the right on immigration. With Trump throughly delegitimized, a more moderate canadite likely wins in 2016 (i.e. Bush, Walker, Rubio.) That's if Trump even runs in 2016.
 

Minty_Fresh

Banned
A much stronger Libertarian current ran in the party in 2012, and that favored fiscal conservatives rather than cultural conservatives. Remember, Paul Ryan was acclaimed by the grassroots and was a popular pick among conservatives for his pretty radical budget ideas at the time rather than being demonized as a globalistopenborderskochfundedcuck or whatever the hell the people at Breitbart are saying now.

The very strongly conservative views on economics came perhaps as a reaction to both Obama and OWS, just as the conservative base currently is very strongly conservative on the border issue after the 2014 Central American migrant surge and the European migrant crisis.

Trump would have had a market in 2012 for border hawkishness, as there is always a market for that, but it wasn't a disqualifying issue nor was it a particularly important one in 2012, considering the acceptance of Paul Ryan, Ron Paul's primary run, and Mitt Romney being attacked for being not enough on the side of business. The birtherism thing was also something that most people, regardless of your views, thought was ridiculous and would not get behind. Birtherism had a peak, in mid 2009, as the Tea Party rallies got a bit out of hand, but it afterwards was discredited and even the most populist voices on the right like Limbaugh and Hannity called it out as dumb.
 
It wasn't the right moment for Trump. Anger at immigration hadn't boiled over (Obama had four years ago been the record holder for deportations, but now is pushing reform), ISIS wasn't on anyone's radar, and the general feeling that I noticed in the air was that things weren't good but they weren't getting worse. That has all changed. Trump wouldn't have broken single digits in 2012 if he ran on the same populist platform.
 
I agree with the other posters. The immigration issue in particular is something that has been building year by year as the numbers of immigrants has climbed. People tried to make it an issue in earlier elections and were ignored. Incidentally, much the same thing happened before the 1924 legislation. It just got to the point where one too many people came through Ellis Island. Eventually people who are fine with lower levels have too much and turn against the policy.

Second, the policy seems to have changed. Obama as mentioned earlier set records in his first term with the number of deportations. And if you are a Republican, by their stated positions there was actually a difference between Romney and Bush, Rubio, and Kasich. Many immigration restrictionists supported Romney.

In 2012, Trump might well have gotten some traction as an anti-bailout candidate. People were upset about that but Romney was not exactly the best candidate to take advantage of the sentiment.

Trump is also running against the Trans-Pacific Trade Partnership, and various instances of US meddling in the internal politics of other countries, none of which were big issues in Obama's first turn.

I've stated this earlier, but really I think a more interesting POD for Trump is his entering politics earlier but NOT as a candidate for the top job. Mayor of New York is the obvious office he could run in, but he could have plausibly campaigned for governor or Senator from either New York or Florida and even gotten elected with the right timing. Its not uncommon for wealthy businessman run for and get elected to both governorships and Senate seats in their first campaign for elective office, it happened in Florida for example during this period. The Republicans could have drafted him to run against Hillary Clinton for Senator in 2000, for example.
 
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