If TR Hadn't Run in 1912, Would Taft Have Won The Election?

Yes, I know Teddy Roosevelt is often treated as a god-amoungst-men on this site, but please, for a moment, take off the rose-tinted glasses. Now, let's say for whatever reason, Roosevelt doesn't run for President at all in 1912. He doesn't even run for the Republican nomination, let alone as the Progressive. Maybe he suffers some injury between being out of office and then. Point is, if he hadn't run, would Taft have won re-election against Wilson?
 
I'd say yes. If you look at the vote for Taft and TR, they split the GOP in half. Had that vote been one solid block, Taft would have recieved more votes than Wilson.
 
I doubt it. Taft was not terribly popular with his own base. Had Roosevelt not run, a lot of Republicans may have stayed home on election day, or voted for Wilson instead (Its important to note that this is the era were Party loyalty began to break down. LaFollette, to give one example, despite being a strong Progressive and an arduent Republican, endrosed Wilson during the election. Without TR in the race, I could see enough Progressives crossing party lines to give Wilson the victory)
 
Take off the Roos-tinted glasses.

Changed for ya.:D

But back to the OP, yes, Taft would have won re-election. No idea what would happen beyond that, though, seeing as I don't know too much about him. Or the time period, for that matter.
 
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