Strongly depends on which Jurchens you are talking about—the group’s still fragmented at this stage.
It also depends on whether the Chinese commander Li Rusong was killed like otl.The Li clan were powerful figures in Liaodong at this stage,and were more or less semi-autonomous warlords.They had vast links with the Aisin Gioro clan,with the founder of the Qing Dynasty,Nurachi was a protege/ward of Li Rusong’s father Li Chengliang.For a long period of time,Nurachi and his tribe more or less functioned as auxiliaries/clients of the Li clan.In otl,the rise of the Jurchens coincided with the decline of the Li clan due to the death of Li Rusong and with Li Chengliang being too old to arrest Nurachi’s rise to power,with no one else in the Li clan having the ability to control them.Nonetheless,Nurachi never dared to oppose the Ming Dynasty when Li Chengliang himself was alive.