If Timur lived longer, "he would undoubtedly have reestablished Turko-Mongol rule" over China. What?

And Yongle was able to engage and defeat the Mongols in their own homeland.
Post 1400's Mongols was "shit". They constantly fought between themselves and never was united. I never counted Mongols military capability this time around seriously. Only Esen taishi of Oirats could stabilize Northern Yuan.
 
Post 1400's Mongols was "shit". They constantly fought between themselves and never was united. I never counted Mongols military capability this time around seriously. Only Esen taishi of Oirats could stabilize Northern Yuan.
Using this logic,one could assume that the expected Mongol allies of Timur would be equally 'shit'?
 
No words... I thought you are the one who does good research before giving any reply.

Using this logic,one could assume that the expected Mongol allies of Timur would be equally 'shit'?

No and no. Tamerlane's Empire in 1400's was one of the greatest Empire and at its zenith of power. It had one of the best army and led by one of the greatest general of history.
On contrast Mongolia in 1400's was one of lowest point of its history. Please check the Mongolian history period of 1400-1420. There was 5 Great Khaans within 15 years, and none could have exercise full control over Mongolian territory. And god knows how competent was the generals of Mongolian troops.
 
No words... I thought you are the one who does good research before giving any reply.



No and no. Tamerlane's Empire in 1400's was one of the greatest Empire and at its zenith of power. It had one of the best army and led by one of the greatest general of history.
On contrast Mongolia in 1400's was one of lowest point of its history. Please check the Mongolian history period of 1400-1420. There was 5 Great Khaans within 15 years, and none could have exercise full control over Mongolian territory. And god knows how competent was the generals of Mongolian troops.
It's a rhetorical question.One of the points made by 'Team-Timur' was that Zhu Di's screwed because Timur has Mongol allies.I'm purely countering that point using what you just said,I'm not suggesting anything 'new' here.

And even before Zhu Di's own reign,Zhu Di was at the head of a number of successful campaigns against the Northern Yuan in the 1380s.One has to take into account that it takes a great amount of skill and resources to fight nomadic tribes as a sedentary entity,especially in it's home ground where factors greatly favored the nomadic tribes.Early Ming Dynasty was able to do exactly that.
 
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Ming would win simply because Timur is old and sickly, he will die before he can gain too many victories. People seem to forget that Timur only had two liabilities, his lack of nobility (he was literally just a lowly sheep herder) and his health.

In terms of battle, Timur certainly has the most fearsome and experienced army on the planet then. His army had roughly been the same force for the past 40 years of his campaigns as the Amr of the Chagatayid and then the ruler of the so called revived Ilkhanate. Even some of his soldiers were his comrades from when he was a soldier during the Ilkhan-Chagatayid wars in Bukhara. Timur also is arguably the most fearsome politician and general in all of Islamic history bar none.

His army further has a great track record, he defeated Tokhtamush, several times in Golden Horde territory on the attack and in Urgench/Kwarezm on the defense. Tokhtamush further was no slouch, this was the guy who stormed Moscow and forced the Muscovites back into submission and was much younger than Timur. He also defeated both the Burji Mamluks and Ottomans. The Burji he forced into submission at various incursions in Syria eventually after a peace was brokered due to the Caliph of the Abbasid throne convincing Timur away from going on a rampage in Syria.

However, his defeat of Bayezid was perhaps the greatest, Bayezid was phenomenal and had Timur's army completely beat in terms of tech. Timur only won due to his armies morale, experience and his own powerful presence. Truly awe inspiring leader.

Essentially, Timur could defeat the Ming in battles and possibly win a war, however, he is in his 70s and his health was always an issue for him and his soldiers worried for him, almost all of which will abandon the campaign as they did otl once he is dead.
 
I'm 100% agree with John.

Essentially, Timur could defeat the Ming in battles and possibly win a war, however, he is in his 70s and his health was always an issue for him and his soldiers worried for him, almost all of which will abandon the campaign as they did otl once he is dead.

That is exactly my point which I mentioned on my first

merlane certainly could won a lot of battles against Ming Dynasty, because he was one of the most brilliant military genius general. He even could occupy in short term Northern China. But what then? He was too old by 1405, so he don't have time to complete the conquest even if it was possible?
 
It's a rhetorical question.One of the points made by 'Team-Timur' was that Zhu Di's screwed because Timur has Mongol allies.I'm purely countering that point using what you just said,I'm not suggesting anything 'new' here.

I mentioned Mongols as ally in early 1370's. Then under Ayushridar Northern Yuan force was more formidable and well led. Add Tamerlane and his army Ming mostly screwed.

And even before Zhu Di's own reign,Zhu Di was at the head of a number of successful campaigns against the Northern Yuan in the 1380s.One has to take into account that it takes a great amount of skill and resources to fight nomadic tribes as a sedentary entity,especially in it's home ground where factors greatly favored the nomadic tribes.Early Ming Dynasty was able to do exactly tha

1. Zhu Di didn't lead campaign against Mongols in 1380's. If remember correctly it was Lan Yu and others. I would give credit to later ones.
2. Early Ming army had many Yuan troops (mostly cavalries) who was not worse than Mongol forces at the time. That is why early Ming was more successful (sure they were more determined to destroy them) against Mongols (which became total disaster after 1388).
However more time passed Ming armies performance against Northern Yuan was less impressive to totally disaster (Esen Taishi's victory).
 

Pretty much this.

Some other points I'd like to make. While the Mongols haven't been flattened they're still around, meaning that Ming China can't throw all its forces at Timur without leaving a door open for the Mongols. That would be less than ideal from the Chinese point of view. Furthermore, Timur thought it was feasible otherwise he never would've planned on doing it. He's not infallible but he's well aware of the capabilities of his own army, the logistics of maintaining said army over very difficult terrain, and since he's had ambitions of attacking China for decades I presume he knew the nature of Chinese capabilities. Now it's possible this could've been a megalomaniac Timur equivalent of Napoleon-Russia, but Napoleon's invasion of Russia wasn't doomed to failure or guaranteed to be such a debacle.

Also Timur's invasion would be coming 2-3 years after the end of a Chinese civil war. I doubt Ming forces are at their peak. The Mongol expeditions wouldn't start for half a decade after Timur's projected attack.
 
It took the Mongols at full strength decades to defeat the Southern Song -- a weakening power that didn't even control all of China.

Instead of the Southern Song, Timur would be facing the Ming during their early years before they were weak... he gon' lose.
 
It took Ghengis Khan- one of if not the most intelligent and capable political and military leaders that humanity has ever birthed- decades of effort to conquer only part of China.
Decades of effort to conquer only part of China?
On the one hand this statement is true and on the other hand it is wrong.

TRUE:
- there were a few encounters/campaigns of Ghengis Khan and his generals with the North China (Jin dynasty) and that's true - there were decades between the first and the last encounter.

WRONG:
- that was not one exhausting uninterrupted war which lasted decades and decades and decades and decades. It was not like every year tens of thousands of the Mongols went to China to keep the conquest going on a permanent regular basis.
A few minor encounters aside there were only several major Mongol campaigns in China, some of them surprisingly short and sweeping. After every campaign most of the (ethnic) Mongols withdrew from China, only some of the Mongols were left (literally a thousand or so), who controlled the territory mostly by the fear that the main Mongol forces would come back and punish those who misbehaved.
During these periods the non-Mongol troops were extensively used in China, who were no match for the "true" Mongol forces, barely enough to keep what was already conquered.

So, the actual conquering of the North China (when the invading Mongols were in tens of thousands, not in hundreds) took 3-4 years at best (and that is counting the major campaigns headed not only by Ghengis Khan himself, but by his generals).

You see, Ghengis Khan had his hands full with other wars of his. Some of them are poorly documented (like the conquests of the forest-steppe zones to the North of Mongolia proper), but which were hard and bloody nevertheless.
Ghengis Khan was more interested in the West (Khwarazmian Empire and the like), he sent his elite forces to the Caucasus and Volga as a reconnaissance. That was what truly interested him.
His main imperial idea was to unite "all peoples of the felt tents" (the nomads of the Great Eurasian steppe) and conquer the lands immediately neighboring this steppe.
Even the first Grand campaign after Ghengis Khan's death (definitely in accordance with his last will) was to the West, through the Great Steppe, up to Hungary.

Contrary to popular belief, China was not priority for Ghengis Khan, though it was close at hand.
Maybe he considered it a "sitting duck" and left it to be conquered by his sons and grandsons...
Who knows...
 
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