If they will not meet us on the open sea (a Trent TL)

Saphroneth

Banned
This resolution to the Second Schleiswig War is one I'm a little nervous about - it has a lot of knock on effects, for example Kiel is just barely outside Denmark now.

Jutland_Peninsula_map.PNG


Here's the OTL map - pretty simple, yellow now German Confederation but orange not.
 
So the border is further south and South Schleswig remains ruled by the King of Denmark but part of the German Confederation?
 

Saphroneth

Banned
So the border is further south and South Schleswig remains ruled by the King of Denmark but part of the German Confederation?
TTL basically Schleswig's status is "unchanged compared to before the war" (not part of the German Confederation and in personal union with the Danish crown as part of the Danish Union) and Holstein is now a duchy ruled by the Augustenburg branch of the Danish Royal Family (the pro-German wing, essentially).

The Danish-German border marked on the map is the current OTL border. OTL in the parallel of this war the Prussians also took all of Schleswig.

Don't worry if this is confusing, everyone else had a headache about it too!
 
TTL basically Schleswig's status is "unchanged compared to before the war" (not part of the German Confederation and in personal union with the Danish crown as part of the Danish Union) and Holstein is now a duchy ruled by the Augustenburg branch of the Danish Royal Family (the pro-German wing, essentially).

The Danish-German border marked on the map is the current OTL border. OTL in the parallel of this war the Prussians also took all of Schleswig.

Don't worry if this is confusing, everyone else had a headache about it too!

Okay so the the Danish-German border is the Eider and Holstein instead of being incorporated into Prussia or Austria has been set up as an member Duchy of the North German Confederation.
 

Saphroneth

Banned
Okay so the the Danish-German border is the Eider and Holstein instead of being incorporated into Prussia or Austria has been set up as an member Duchy of the North German Confederation.
Well, it was already technically a member duchy; it's just that now it has a Duke who doesn't also happen to be the King of a non-German country. (Blame Frederick III - he's interested in doing what's right so long as it doesn't harm Prussia, which is a slightly different attitude to OTL, and he may have Bismarck in his circle of advisors but he's not giving the man policy control...)

But yes, the border's correct.
 

Saphroneth

Banned
Now, lessons of the recent wars.


Firstly, the Holstein War (which I'm calling that for simplicity and because Holstein's the easy one to spell). From this a few lessons have been learned by those who were paying attention, notably that breechloaders can beat down muzzleloaders with sheer volume of fire at short range. (The British at least are going to be thinking in terms of that being "in effective range", which for them is quite long.) The downside to this approach is ammunition consumption, though - "schnellfeuer" can eat through an infantryman's entire ammunition load in about eight minutes with guns like the Snider.

It's also shown that long range artillery can be very effective against fortified positions, especially if the attacking guns outrange the defenders, and that breechloader artillery allows for an effective volume of fire to be delivered in a very short space of time if you don't mind the risk of damage to the guns.

It's pretty conclusively shown the superiority of steel shot over cast-iron or wrought-iron in empirical tests. (Well, mostly.) And shown that fast-firing heavy rifles can command the sea within their range against slow wooden vessels through volume of fire (though fast small vessels are not yet under the same risk).


The other current war of interest is the Land Wars. In this war, the British in particular have been learning that the 12-lber RBL is accurate enough and long ranged enough that it can be used to neutralize individual rifle pits, and that the Snider is very nice and can we please have more. Maori tactics are startlingly modern when seen during an era when forming line is still a semi-viable formation, and those battalions deployed to New Zealand may well be learning a few things more.
 
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Small thing, but the Prussians would probably insist on the border being north of the Eider. It would be impractical to construct the Kiel canal TTL with a potentially hostile power sitting right on the exit. Since the Prussians have largely done as well as OTL here I can't imagine they would not push for the territory of the duchy in their explicit control not to be pushed at least as far forward as the English partition proposal from 1864 before the Treaty of Vienna was signed.
 

Saphroneth

Banned
Would they be thinking in terms of a Kiel Canal before 1864? (I mean was that part of their thinking OTL and if so in what sense.)


What was the English partition proposal of OTL? I can't seem to find any details on it. In any case, the way I'm viewing this is essentially that Frederick III, and Prussia, are viewing this not as a Prussian matter (after all, the duchy went not to Prussia at all but is independent) but a German Confederation matter, and the territory line of Denmark now is the border of the German Confederation.


the duchy in their explicit control
Perhaps this is the source of your confusion. The duchy of Holstein is not under Prussian control; it's an independent member of the German confederation.

Since the Prussians have largely done as well as OTL here
Their occupation line is much further south, they've not pushed onto Als, they have no naval ally as they did OTL. They've won a big victory, but they actually control less territory than at the OTL resolution of the war.
 
Would they be thinking in terms of a Kiel Canal before 1864? (I mean was that part of their thinking OTL and if so in what sense.)

The Eider Canal predated the modern Kiel Canal, and was built in the late 1700s. The economic and military benefits of such a canal would be obvious, and Prussia (not to mention the German confederation) would no doubt love the ability to control it. That was why they never got around to installing the proper prince of Schleswig-Holstein, Frederick VIII on the throne in OTL, which was one of the reasons for the Austro-Prussian War.

What was the English partition proposal of OTL? I can't seem to find any details on it. In any case, the way I'm viewing this is essentially that Frederick III, and Prussia, are viewing this not as a Prussian matter (after all, the duchy went not to Prussia at all but is independent) but a German Confederation matter, and the territory line of Denmark now is the border of the German Confederation.

The English partition basically ran from the Schlei to the Eider at Suderstapel. This was a limited concession to Prussia. It was one of numerous proposals put forth in the London Conference of 1864 before the Prussians crushed the Danes at Dybbol which made any sort of arbitration moot as the Prusso-Austrian alliance now dominated the field.

Their occupation line is much further south, they've not pushed onto Als, they have no naval ally as they did OTL. They've won a big victory, but they actually control less territory than at the OTL resolution of the war.

The fall of Dybbol historically pushed the Danes back to the far north of Jutland. They've sued for peace here because the Prussians could conceivably do so, and nothing seems to indicate otherwise. Basically the Prussians seem to still be able to march north and there's nothing the Danes can do to stop them. Hence why I would assume they would not accept the Eider as the border.
 

Saphroneth

Banned
The Eider Canal predated the modern Kiel Canal, and was built in the late 1700s. The economic and military benefits of such a canal would be obvious, and Prussia (not to mention the German confederation) would no doubt love the ability to control it. That was why they never got around to installing the proper prince of Schleswig-Holstein, Frederick VIII on the throne in OTL, which was one of the reasons for the Austro-Prussian War.
I'm sure - though that didn't exactly stop things like OTL's St Lawrence Seaway. As it is they've got the southern bank, which suggests dual control.


The English partition basically ran from the Schlei to the Eider at Suderstapel. This was a limited concession to Prussia. It was one of numerous proposals put forth in the London Conference of 1864 before the Prussians crushed the Danes at Dybbol which made any sort of arbitration moot as the Prusso-Austrian alliance now dominated the field.
This seems unlikely because the Conference began seven days after Dybbol was resolved.



The fall of Dybbol historically pushed the Danes back to the far north of Jutland. They've sued for peace here because the Prussians could conceivably do so, and nothing seems to indicate otherwise. Basically the Prussians seem to still be able to march north and there's nothing the Danes can do to stop them. Hence why I would assume they would not accept the Eider as the border.


But what's happened here is that the Danes have accepted a still-active German Confederation peace offer. That's why things went so quickly - the Danes accepted an offer based on the immediate aftermath of the Battle of Dybbol, before it was withdrawn, and the Germans don't care enough about biting off Danish territory to say that the peace offer is retroactively withdrawn (because of the bad optics; indeed that probably would result in British intervention or at least a bad diplomatic position for the Confederation).
Meanwhile, as a personal issue Frederick III is thinking a lot about the evidence that the people of South Schleswig consider themselves not to be German (indeed he's over-weighting it) and using that as part of a justification to his attitude.
 
I'm sure - though that didn't exactly stop things like OTL's St Lawrence Seaway. As it is they've got the southern bank, which suggests dual control.

Rather different, the St. Lawrence Seaway was built over a century after any hostilities between Canada and the US, the Kiel canal, not so much. Dual control would not really be acceptable to Berlin considering the advantages it offers with exclusive Prussian control.

This seems unlikely because the Conference began seven days after Dybbol was resolved.

It was supposed to begin before the 25th, and the diplomatic wrangling had been ongoing since March. Bismarck delayed as long as he could OTL, and that proved just long enough to get things the way he wanted.

But what's happened here is that the Danes have accepted a still-active German Confederation peace offer. That's why things went so quickly - the Danes accepted an offer based on the immediate aftermath of the Battle of Dybbol, before it was withdrawn, and the Germans don't care enough about biting off Danish territory to say that the peace offer is retroactively withdrawn (because of the bad optics; indeed that probably would result in British intervention or at least a bad diplomatic position for the Confederation).
Meanwhile, as a personal issue Frederick III is thinking a lot about the evidence that the people of South Schleswig consider themselves not to be German (indeed he's over-weighting it) and using that as part of a justification to his attitude.

I imagine they would. Friedrich III might have been compassionate enough to not want to take the maximum, but I imagine he would be quick enough to grasp the advantages of holding the whole range for a potential canal lock, stock, and barrel, without having the added headaches of needing to either fight another war to get it or negotiate its use with the Danes.

However, this lesser control will probably be a headache later on he will regret.
 

Saphroneth

Banned
Dual control would not really be acceptable to Berlin considering the advantages it offers with exclusive Prussian control.
It's not Berlin that matters, nor would any prospective canal look like being under Prussian control at this time. This is a case of the Danish accepting a pre-existing peace offer from the German Confederation in which the Duchy of Holstein is split from the Danish crown and becomes an independent duchy which is part of the German Confederation.

Frederick III's rule thus far has been one of parliamentary primacy, and a liberal parliament at that; the Prussians are acting as part (albeit the most powerful part) of the German Confederation; thus I think that it's unlikely that there'd be a territorial grab of that scale of significance as a part of this war because it would mean moving the boundaries of Holstein. (And of the German Confederation as a whole, thus changing the whole character of the war from being over the German Confederation's legitimate interest in Holstein to being a land-grab.)

It may be that in future the cession of land between the potential canal route and the Danevirke would be contemplated (e.g. handled by plebiscite), or that some other kind of deal would be worked out; however, I have some difficulty seeing Frederick III overriding the German Confederation (who made the peace offer), his own parliament (who supported military action specifically to enact the resolution of the Confederation), the duke of Holstein (who is pretty clear on what Holstein is) and indeed a peace treaty he was involved in setting up (before the invasion - the set of gradated halt clauses) in favour of expansionism. He might privately regret the course of events that led to missing the opportunity, but it's not something he'd consider anything like serious enough to expend a huge fraction of his political capital and indeed the political capital of Prussia.

That's the way I'm thinking, anyway.

(And, of course, in realpolitik terms Prussia has just demonstrated the ability to defeat the Danes on land and take the north bank of the Eider if they want to. That was the Danish army versus a single Prussian corps, and the Danish question was more or less how quickly they could get out of the way...)
 
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Derek Pullem

Kicked
Donor
Aren't we getting ahead of ourselves talking about a Kiel Canal which is to support a virtually non-existent (as yet) Prussian navy by connecting Kiel (which they have only just acquired and doesn't yet have a naval base) to Willhelmshaven (which won't be built for another few years and is leased from Oldenburg). Maybe in a decade or so the strategic value of acquiring Schleswig will be commented upon but then they could just drive the canal on a more Southerly route and avoid the problem (mostly).

Or Frederick and his successors do not decide to build a credible blue water navy and stick to coastal defense forces.
 
2-13 April 1864

Saphroneth

Banned
2 April

Discussion takes place in the German Confederation as to whether the peace was worthwhile. The arguments used in favour are the casualty count (surprisingly low, considering the multiple assaults on defended fortifications - at least on the German side) and the confirmation of Confederation authority over the German duchies and other constituent states without expansion; the arguments against include the way the Eider is now in dual control and the possibility that the Dannevirke could have been neutralized as a future defensive line.


4 April

Dahlgren fires upon the intended armour scheme for Puritan at various ranges and with various of his guns. The sleeved rifle bursts, thus making him more sure that it would be better to stick to large capacity smoothbores and leave the matter of rifles to Parrott (whose guns seem more reliable) but more to the point he is discovering that his 15" gun is less effective than anticipated - something which may have dire repercussions for the 20" gun intended for Puritan which has the same design concept.
Observing that the 15" gun is sending forth a cloud of unburned propellant - suggesting that the powder he is using may be burning too slowly - Dahlgren has the next round fired with the proof charge (which is greater than the service charge) in order to verify that faster burning powder is something the gun would survive. The result is unanticipated - the gun simply bursts, unable to withstand the pressure of what should theoretically have been the service charge.

On checking the records Dahlgren finds that this gun has been fired some two hundred times (very much on the low side for a service piece, but for a massive gun the length of time a gun lasts can be shorter - it is better than the 11" using his newly designated 'battering' charge, at least, which lasts about thirty fires), but nevertheless this is not an especially encouraging sign for using the 15" gun as a true anti armour piece. Instead he considers whether it would be more useful to take a 15" blank and bore it to 12" rifled instead, using it as a rifle and relying on the thicker walls of the resultant gun to avoid bursting under the theoretical service charge.

6 April

Dahlgren's records have also revealed something slightly worrying about the 15" gun - fully 10% of them (aside from the destruct tested #1) have failed in proof and never been issued, which suggests that the problem is as much the metallurgy as anything and that the gun he was using for his Puritan tests was quite possibly above average.
Lacking a particularly easy solution for this one, he suggests instead that there should be kept spare a number of 15" (or derived) tubes so that replacement in time of war is not too difficult.

7 April

The US and the British redemilitarize the Great Lakes, both sides agreeing that the other's actions in the late war were understandable under the circumstances and should not prejudice the reactivation of the treaty in question; however, a clause is added that no military ship not already covered by the allocations may be brought into service on the lakes (defined as commission, patrolling, or attacking) until three months after the declaration of hostilities even if a war breaks out. The penalties specified are considerable.
For the Union, this is something to hopefully prevent the British sailing reinforcements up the Lakes; for the British, this will hopefully avoid too much disadvantage resulting from the freezing of the St Lawrence.

10 April

The Admiralty is approached by the Prussian government over the potential purchase of an ironclad.
This leads to a distinct deja vu in the Admiralty, since the Prussians specifically enquire over a Zodiac - thus making it the second possible sale of this kind of ship in a relatively short time. (Adm. Milne, now back from the Americas, jokingly asks if they were built for him or for everyone else.)


11 April

The Black Prince recommissions in Portsmouth, now the first British ironclad to have an armament consisting entirely of rifles - with RML 7" guns for armour penetrating pieces and Armstrong guns for general service. She is to serve in the Mediterranean.

13 April

Lincoln floats the idea of compensated emancipation, to be paid for partly by the charity of the British public. The idea instantly sparks controversy in the Republican party, with newsletters in favour of anything from uncompensated emancipation immediately to simply legislating that all future children are born free (and not citizens) if any abolition measures are to be taken up at all.
The reception in British territories is more mixed, and indeed it is already causing some bad reactions in British North America (where the comparison is made between the great number of slaves which the British Empire emancipated themselves, and the smaller number of slaves the Union wishes others to pay for) but also some support (the point being made that what matters is the freedom of the slaves, not the minutiae of how.)
 
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