If they will not meet us on the open sea (a Trent TL)

Saphroneth

Banned
Slightly off topic, but hopefully of interest. When googling to find out just what a breastwork monitor actually is I came across this rather nice article about how the hulk of HMVS Cerberus, probably the first of the breed, not only still survives but is in the process of being fully restored by the Australian government.
Yes, Cerberus was the one. (OTL, that is - TTL it's going to be the A'a which is currently under construction.)
 
14-26 January 1864

Saphroneth

Banned
14 January

Danish Union troops arrive at the Dannevirke and enter the positions.
Almost immediately, it becomes clear that the value of the Dannevirke in discussions of the potential war was considerably overstated. Barracks are not in place, and the fortifications themselves - while solid - are neither defended by abatis nor equipped with connecting roads.
There is a lot of digging work to do, and it is quite cold.


15 January

Prussian officers lay out an approach plan on the Dannevirke. Depending on the number of troops present, they will either force it or take a more oblique approach - the mobilization strength of the Danish Union is not known, and a further point is how many Holstein troops will actually fight for Denmark.

Owing to the possible need for a homogenous turning force, the Prussian I Corps is given a warning order that they may also be required to participate in operations against the Danish Union. For now they are to concentrate in readiness to act as a reserve.

Official rejection by Denmark of the German ultimatum.


17 January

A small skirmish takes place some miles south of the Dannevirke, between a Danish cavalry troop and the entire military of Schwarzburg-Sondershausen (consisting of a troop of dragoons). The situation is complicated greatly by mist, and both sides later report inflicting severe casualties on an overwhelmingly large enemy force before retreating in good order.

This causes a delay in the German advance (as other cavalry forces deploy to try and fix the position of this Danish blocking force) and makes the Danish commander nervous about how long he has to complete urgent alterations to the Dannevirke. He has a few officers detailed to work out the logistics of a retreat from the fortification line, in case it becomes necessary to take this unhappy option.

22 January
Duncan Cameron launches a sea expedition to Tauranga, believed to be an entrepot for Maori reinforcements to the Paterangi line. He specifies the dispatch of a Snider-equipped battalion (he now has two battalions of Regulars with the Snider) as part of the force.



25 January
German forces cross in force from Holstein to Schleiswig, confident of a secure supply line through Holstein.
The initial plan is to launch probing attacks at possible weak points of the Dannevirke, with the first being Mysunde (a point where the inlet that covers the flank of the Dannevirke is narrow).
At the same time, the Prussian I Corps is ordered to move to Holstein as strategic reserve.


A squadron formed around the Danish battleship Skjold (64) and frigate Sjaelland (42) blockades Swinemunde and thus Stettin. Other Danish squadrons will blockade other ports on the Prussian coast, with the ironclads Rolf Krake and Danebrog kept back as reserve to cover the Oresund and the Esbern Snare and Absolon looked at with shore attack in mind.


26 January

Abraham Lincoln makes a speech in which he asks why the Union has treated the Indians worse than has the Confederacy, and states that it is the fault not of the Indian people but of the Bureau of Indian Affairs if Indians are starved to the point of revolt.
It seems clear that Lincoln has decided it would be better to speak his mind on this issue, and his position is hard-hitting - he compares those who ignore the complaints of Indians to "Lords North" (which provokes gasps from the crowd).


The Bureau of Indian Affairs takes note that the speech was made, but does not suggest any further action.
 
It's a good thing Lincoln is on his way out because everyone west of Ohio is probably not very keen on his speech. The various states, counties and Indian officials were so busy enriching themselves they very much forgot about where the money was actually supposed to go.
 

Saphroneth

Banned
It's a good thing Lincoln is on his way out because everyone west of Ohio is probably not very keen on his speech. The various states, counties and Indian officials were so busy enriching themselves they very much forgot about where the money was actually supposed to go.
That has a few knock-on effects planned - but yes, Lincoln's anxious to see the Union distinguish itself from the Confederacy by being less racist, not merely differently racist.



As an incidental aside, I've recently been informed of how One Of The Other Trent Timelines was originally planned to end.

Suffice to say, it is a little bit disturbing.
Presented below under spoilerbox.

...at which point, presumably by if not before the winter of 1862-63, Williams surrenders Lower Canada, Palmerston loses a vote of confidence (just like North and Aberdeen) and Gladstone comes to power and makes a deal rather than send good money after bad, as he did in 1881 in South Africa. At that point, it is an open question how long Gladstone can last, and the Conservatives and a realistic foreign policy comes into play under Disraeli.

In the meantime, once there's a settlement between the US and UK, a re-run of the historical 1862-65 campaigns of the US against the rebels get underway, except delayed by roughly 12-18 months, at which point the rebels surrender unconditionally in 1866-67.

Enmity between the US and UK lasts, however, and so there's no US assistance when a European Continental hegemon arises and then defeats the British in an analogue of the Great War; fascism arises in the UK in response and a British fascist government launches a revenge war analogous to the Second World War, the Allies blockade Britain and London suffers the first atomic bombing in order to end the second war. Millions die, but the world lurches into a more peaceful phase under the aegis of the US and various other great powers, none of which are Britain, since the island is largely an irradiated, diseased wasteland, inhabited by the starving, shell-shocked survivors of the Fall of the British Empire. Perhaps the surviving Irish will take pity upon them, but given the memories of the Famine, perhaps not.

And all because Palmerston tries to make political hay from a two hour delay in the mails. Sad.


I'll try to avoid being anything like this vindictive or nasty towards anyone. Even the Confederacy - they're no monolith.
 
I think you went a little easy on the Union from the Brits, but I certainly hope you don't blame the world's ills on America and cleanse them with nuclear fire!
 

Saphroneth

Banned
Here's some Maths! about ironclad penetration, as calculated at the time.


1) Does low velocity or high velocity work better for the same energy?
The energy or "work" was calculated for two projectiles (this done in 1864) and matched. They took the 10.5" 12 ton gun, and fired it at an iron plate with 50 lbs charge and 170 lbs spherical steel shot, then took the same gun and fired it with 40 lbs and a 300 lb hemispherical headed steel elongated shot - the result was that the "work" was identical, 2,898 foot tons.
2) If the work is proportional to the diameter of the round, how does this affect the penetration?
The 100-lber gun was fired with a 15.4 lbs charge and the 7" RML fired with a 13.5 lb charge, resulting in a "work" of 128 foot-tons per inch of diameter.

The results of this experiment showed that the resistance (in foot-tons) of a plate when struck by a projectile of constant diameter varied as the square of the plate's thickness, for unbacked and solid plate.
It also (critically) showed that the resistance was constant per inch of diameter of the projectile.

The resistance of the Warrior target was (counting the backing) 61 foot-tons per inch against steel-headed hemispherical rifle shot; for Lord Warden it was more like 89 foot-tons per inch. (The 8" Parrott could just about produce 64 foot-tons per inch, so just about penetrates Warrior - see page one of the thread!)
The unbacked plate resisted at only about 28 foot-tons per inch, so the backing is very important and more than doubles the resistance of the plate.

For wrought iron balls attacking wrought iron the Fairbairn formula holds up pretty well.
T/D = (0.0007692)[(W/D^3)V^2]^0.5

For the 11" Dahlgren

V (fps) T (penetration, in)
800 2.32
900 2.61
1000 2.90
1100 3.19
1200 3.48
1300 3.77
1400 4.06
1500 4.35
1600 4.63

At 1,600 fps the 11" will just pierce an unbacked 4.5" plate.
The 15" does this at just over 1,000 fps.
The Dahlgren 9" does this:

V (fps) T (penetration, in)
800 1.95
900 2.19
1000 2.43
1100 2.68
1200 2.92
1300 3.16
1400 3.41
1500 3.65
1600 3.89
1700 4.14
1800 4.38
1900 4.62


Both the 9" and 11" were massively overcharged by Dahlgren and he got about 1,400 fps out of them.

Using steel shot, which deforms better and thus transfers more energy, the Noble formula is preferred.)


11"

V (fps) T (penetration, in)
800 3.81
900 4.29
1000 4.77
1100 5.25
1200 5.72
1300 6.20
1400 6.68
1500 7.15
1600 7.63
1700 8.11
1800 8.58
1900 9.06

So an unbacked plate would be pierced at around 950 fps, but Warrior (equiv to a 6.64" unbacked plate) at around 1,400 fps - so with steel shot and double charges, the 11" could just about penetrate Warrior (though at that powder load it's an interesting question whether Warrior or the 11" breaks first).

For the 9":

V (fps) T (penetration, in)
800 3.20
900 3.60
1000 4.00
1100 4.40
1200 4.80
1300 5.21
1400 5.61
1500 6.01
1600 6.41
1700 6.81
1800 7.21
1900 7.61

Against Warrior there is no possibility even with a steel shot of generating enough velocity.




For the 68 pdr with a 68 lb common shot:

V (fps) T (penetration, in)
800 1.80
900 2.03
1000 2.26
1100 2.48
1200 2.71
1300 2.93
1400 3.16
1500 3.38
1600 3.61
1700 3.83
1800 4.06
1900 4.29



With steel:

V (fps) T (penetration, in)
800 3.06
900 3.44
1000 3.82
1100 4.20
1200 4.58
1300 4.97
1400 5.35
1500 5.73
1600 6.11
1700 6.49
1800 6.88
1900 7.26
2000 8.01

The 68 lber 95 cwt developed 2040 fps over the first 40 yards when fired with the "far" charge. Since 11" laminate is (assuming equivalent metal quality) about equal to an 8" unbacked plate, this would allow a one-shot of a Passaic class monitor at very close range. Thus, believe it or not, my battle written on page one should have had the Warrior completely cripple the Monitor with the first 68 pounder shot fired with battering charge...

For the 100 pdr Somerset (all steel shot):

V (fps) T (penetration, in)
800 3.39
900 3.82
1000 4.24
1100 4.67
1200 5.09
1300 5.51
1400 5.94
1500 6.36
1600 6.79
1700 7.21
1800 7.63
1900 8.06


The Somerset gun could produce 1,700 to 1,800 fps quite easily at very close range.


The 300 pounder Armstrong (actually fired a 164 lb steel ball as a smoothbore, but if rifled would have fired 300 lb shot) was much better:


V (fps) T (penetration, in)
800 4.02
900 4.53
1000 5.03
1100 5.53
1200 6.03
1300 6.54
1400 7.04
1500 7.54
1600 8.05
1700 8.55
1800 9.05
1900 9.55

This got around 1,750 fps at the muzzle.




ED: using the 15" Dahlgren it has a penetration velocity against Warrior of 1600 fps for iron shot and 1000 fps for steel shot (assuming both are 440 lb).
Double ED: since the 15" Dahlgren's steel ball is 484 lb, it has a penetration velocity vs. Warrior of c. 900 fps.

Interestingly, we also have the "initial velocity" for many Dahlgren guns based on USN tables - this is not muzzle velocity, but velocity over first second of flight - thus, we can calculate penetration at 150-250 yards. They show that, for the standard charges and excluding cast-steel rounds:

The best penetration by the 20" is when firing iron shot and with a 100 lbs charge - it penetrates approx. 6.8 inches at this range.
For the 15" it can penetrate 5.1 inches with a 50 lb charge.
For the 13", 4.3 inches with a 70 lbs charge.
11" has 20 lbs of charge and penetrates 3.1 inches.
The 10" uses 12.5 lbs and penetrates 2.7".
The 9" uses 13 lbs of powder and penetrates 2.6 inches.
The 8 inch penetrates 2.2 inches, using 9 lbs of powder.
And the long 32 pounder penetrates about 2.2 inches, using 9 lbs of powder as well.


This excludes the use of massive overcharge, of course - but the Dahlgren 11" using the 30lb charges would only last for about 20 rounds. (Same for the 15" with the 60lb charge - these are guns being badly overstrained!)
 
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27 January - 4 February 1864

Saphroneth

Banned
27 January

The second Anglo-Ashanti War draws to a close, largely due to mutual apathy over the topic.


30 January

Wilkes privately agrees to contribute to the naval analysis of Butler's works on the Union's failures of strategy in the late war.
Also on this date, the third prototype of the Armstrong-Elswick breech is tested for a 7" gun. The system performs as advertised up to 24 lbs of powder - a considerable improvement over the previous breech - but it has a tendency to jam shut after only a few fires and is cumbersome to use at speed.

Armstrong considers this useful information - and jokes to one of the engineers that if all else fails this is still a RML gun that is easier to clean.


1 February

Prussian infantry occupy a hill facing the Dannevirke, screened by cavalry. There is a small engagement in which a Danish cavalry troop is evicted from the hill, and then the slow process begins of emplacing heavy artillery.
The engineers have chosen the site well - it is well back from the Dannevirke, and the cannon there are unable to range the hill (but it is known to be in range of the heavy Krupp guns, as confirmed by one Potsdam officer who has very well-practiced Polish.)


3 February

The US war department formally sues several supposed firearms manufacturers or suppliers, for total non-delivery of ordered small arms or outright war profiteering. Among those sued is James Pierpont Morgan, part of a scheme which purchased 5,000 surplus (and dubiously sound) rifles only to then sell them back to the government at roughly a 500% markup.

4 February

Ushidoshi Maru - now arrived in Japan - is shown off to the Shogun and some of his top men.
They are unimpressed by the design, which is a bit pedestrian, but the thick armour does meet with their approval - especially when it is explained that the only guns in Japan which can pierce her are the pivot guns on some British warships.
 
As an incidental aside, I've recently been informed of how One Of The Other Trent Timelines was originally planned to end.

Suffice to say, it is a little bit disturbing.
Presented below under spoilerbox.

Was that TFSmith's plan? Because if so... wow, I knew he was anti-British, but I never realised his feelings were that strong.
 

Saphroneth

Banned
presumably the love of his life left him for a brit and he never got over it.
No need to speculate like that.


Out of interest, does anyone know when political campaigns (for the Presidency) got going in the mid-19th century? The Republican nomination process is going to be a bit of a case of soul-searching...
 

Skallagrim

Banned
Out of interest, does anyone know when political campaigns (for the Presidency) got going in the mid-19th century? The Republican nomination process is going to be a bit of a case of soul-searching...

As I understand it (although I am no expert) McKinley's 1896 campaign really laid the groundwork for what we'd call a "modern political campaign" in the USA. The crucial factor in that was that even though he ran a so called "front porch campaign", he had others travel the country on his behalf, making speeches and advocating for him. Before McKinley, it had been far more common for US politicians to use newspapers to get nationwide publicity, while they themselves actually travelled only very little. (Obviously, travelling widely was for the longest time just plain impractical.) There's a certain irony in the fact that McKinley himself got famous for not travelling at all (he literally gave all his speeches in his home town), but because others travelled for him and were so effective, it still set the precedent for a campaign with lots of speaking engagements all over the country.

Of course, the idea of using such a strategy- travelling to give speeches intead of just using newspapers - did not originate in the USA. Much to the frustration of certain people who apparently hate Britain with the fire of a thousand suns, the first modern political campaign is actually widely considered to be Gladstone's Midlothian campaign. (Britain being geographically much smaller than the USA, the idea of travelling in person for this reason was of course more practical at an earlier time.)
 

Saphroneth

Banned
Okay, thanks - that's good to know.

So the likelihood is that the nominees for both parties will be using newspapers to get their positions across.
(Hmmm... that does bring up the person of JW Booth, who TTL will be a famous actor willing to perform in the North but with a much higher price there than in his native South...)
 

Ryan

Donor
No need to speculate like that.

I wasn't being serious, it was just a tongue in cheek comment based on the stereotype that guy will forever hate who/whatever their partner left them for (e.g. a guy hates black people because his girlfriend left him for a black guy)

I thought the joke was clear enough but apparently not :p
 

Saphroneth

Banned
I wasn't being serious, it was just a tongue in cheek comment based on the stereotype that guy will forever hate who/whatever their partner left them for (e.g. a guy hates black people because his girlfriend left him for a black guy)

I thought the joke was clear enough but apparently not :p
It was clear, but still grave dancing.
 
Was that TFSmith's plan?
The phrase 'two hour delay in the mails' should have given it away. A great believer in recycling (see 1, 2, 3, 4, 5). Although he did revise it down from four hours; perhaps four hours didn't make the British seem petty enough.

Out of interest, does anyone know when political campaigns (for the Presidency) got going in the mid-19th century? The Republican nomination process is going to be a bit of a case of soul-searching...
You could campaign, but you needed a pretext to be travelling and coincidentally make speeches as you did so. Douglas did so in 1860, and so did Winfield Scott in 1852. If the Republican candidate thinks the situation is desperate, they might do the same- and it might make the situation worse...
 
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