If they will not meet us on the open sea (a Trent TL)

Hm. At this point I have three or four options, as I see it. Unfortunately for me they depend largely on what's happened in the past.

Option 1: Ortega is dead, and everything is going to get really complicated.
Option 2: Ortega is in Imperial custody, and a rescue attempt is to be set up to sort out who is in charge of the Republicans.
Option 3: Ortega is able to consolidate his position as President fairly quickly.
Option 4: Ortega is at the front, so takes some weeks to get back to Chihuahua, and Diaz has both time and ambition to mount a coup. (Successful or not.)
Would they know if he is in Imperial custody or not? They might presume him dead, making things even more complicated down the road.
Or could Diaz try to take over anyway if they know he is in custody?
 

Saphroneth

Banned
They might not know if he's in custody, but my guess would be that they would know - civil wars can be pretty nasty but there were definitely prisoner exchanges in this one, and for that you need to know who's been captured.
But yes, if Ortega is in custody then Diaz might get a bit Bonaparte.
 

Skallagrim

Banned
If Ortega is in custody, this will be no secret. The capture of high-ranking officers occurred during the conflict in OTL, and no secret was made of it. If he is dead, this will likewise be known.

-- If in custody, Ortega need not hope for rescue; it's not as if a captured general would be detained at the front. He'd likely be held in Mexico City, where he cannot be freed by his comrades... which would be the exact point of keeping him there. Prisoner exchange is theoretically possible, bit it is universally known that Ortega is the Republican vice president. As soon as it becomes known (or suspected) that Juarez is dead, the Imperials will not be inclined to let his obvious successor walk free. At least... not at once. If Ortega is out of the picture, there is no line of succession. While the democracy-minded leaders deliberate, I fully expect Diaz to stage a coup. At this point, the Imperials would be wise to simply release Ortega if they have him in custody. A faction of the Republicans will be loyal to him, sparking an intra-Republican civil war. Which would greatly benefit the Imperials.

-- If Ortega is dead, however, Diaz will likewise stage his coup, but there is no "legitimate" opponent, and he'll likely be the Republican leader from that moment on.

-- If Ortega is free and present (or close by) at Juarez's death, he will at once be made president without much debate - if only to forestall Diaz and a potential coup. If this happens, the ranks will close, and Diaz will stay down and bide his time.

-- If Ortega is at a distant location and will not be there for some time, Diaz will likely see this as his (possibly only/last) shot, and - guess what - stage a coup. It will most likely succeed, but there will also be a faction loyal to Ortega. So basically the same effect as in the scenario where the Imperials set him loose. Intra-Republican strife, which aids the Imperials.
 
-- If Ortega is free and present (or close by) at Juarez's death, he will at once be made president without much debate - if only to forestall Diaz and a potential coup. If this happens, the ranks will close, and Diaz will stay down and bide his time.
-- If Ortega is at a distant location and will not be there for some time, Diaz will likely see this as his (possibly only/last) shot, and - guess what - stage a coup. It will most likely succeed, but there will also be a faction loyal to Ortega. So basically the same effect as in the scenario where the Imperials set him loose. Intra-Republican strife, which aids the Imperials.
If Ortega is free but injured/ill, that would probably also lead to a coup attempt. So with all these options the question becomes: how much trouble does Saph, as the author, want to cause to the Republicans...?
 
The Belt and the Battery, Watts

Saphroneth

Banned
Excerpts from a talk by Isaac Watts (former DNC) on "The Belt and the Battery"


"...the current system of constructing broadside ironclad frigates cannot long continue. You may wonder by what confidence I state this, especially since my own Warrior is a broadside ironclad frigate and since many other broadside ironclad frigates have been built or laid down, both in this country and in France; the answer is simple. It is the belt and the battery, and the pressures they exert on warship design."

"The Warrior's belt, and her armoured battery, are protected by four and a half inches of wrought iron. This is well and good, but the danger existed that some other nation would build a ship with four and a half inches, and so guns were sought that may pierce four and a half inches and thus allow us to sink ships so protected; at the same time, we can be sure that other nations were and are working on guns that may pierce four and a half inches.
Once this gun was developed - for us it was the Somerset gun - two problems arose for the next generation of naval vessels. The first is that when the Warrior was laid down the finest armour piercing gun was the eight inch 68 pounder of 95 hundredweight, but the Somerset gun of 9.2 inches is one hundred and thirty hundredweight - and we may be sure that the weight of the guns may increase further, so that for the same weight of armament there may be fewer guns able to be loaded onto the ship.
The second problem has been made more acute by Mr. Palliser's shell, and it is that when designing a ship one must thicken the armour or accept that shot must pierce it. I am no more inclined than the next man to think a ship may be invulnerable - but if a gun that exists now may pierce the ship, then how much more vulnerable will the ship be against the guns which are in service when it finally sees service? So the armour must become thicker, and perforce must take up more weight..."


"The armour of the Warrior covered 213 feet along the ship and 22 feet up and down the side; the armour of future ships is considered to require a complete belt along the waterline, and to be thicker - but if the Warrior had a complete belt for six feet below the waterline and five above, it would weigh the same as the whole armour of the current ship, without any to protect the guns; and the guns must be protected, though the belt is as important. A ship may be sunk by damage at the waterline; she may be disabled by the loss of her guns..."



"...as the guns become heavier, and the armour thicker, then unless ships are to become far more vast there is only one solution, and that is to reduce the area that is to be protected - to focus the protection into a smaller area. This may be done as in the fine ships being now designed by Reed - my successor, yes - to be of low freeboard, so that the belt may also protect the battery; but this is not an effective solution for a ship that is to fight or sail upon the open seas, which must be high sided at least and preferably carry her guns free of waves. The alternatives, then, are to reduce the number of guns upon the broadside and armour them far more thickly - if the Warrior was to be built with a battery only fifty feet in length then the protective armour could be an insuperable eighteen inches thick, though this would not provide for a belt - or to concentrate the armour entirely into turrets, which may be so well protected as to shed almost any shell and to free up more total displacement for the belt.
I do not think this is yet essential, but that it may soon become so - that before long the day will be reached that the guns that must be carried will be so heavy that a warship may only carry ten - four for each broadside, and a pair for the chase - and if that comes to pass, why, then two turrets each of two guns would provide for the same fire both to port and starboard, while saving a little on the area of armour that must be carried and allowing it to be thicker, and saving on the guns in both weight and cost."
 

Saphroneth

Banned
Not sure compared to OTL. There was enthusiasm for the turret already, but it had obvious problems in combination with a fully rigged ship.

This is just making clear it's definitely on the way.
 
I've got a german source from 1862, saying the turret seems to be a good idea because it's movement is independent to that of the ship and the impacts from simultaneous firing would be spaced closely together.

EDIT: Another source, also 1862, argues that turret ships would also roll less, because the weight of the guns in now positioned in the middle of the ship, not on the sides.
 
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Saphroneth

Banned
Yeah, turrets were very much a thing at the time - the question was basically how to use them. (The first turreted gunboat was actually in the Crimean War, and the first turret ironclad was probably HMS Trusty.)
 
Just wanted to butt into the discussion. Especially the first one pretty much says "if we work out the kinks, they're superior to broadside vessels"
 

Saphroneth

Banned
Just wanted to butt into the discussion. Especially the first one pretty much says "if we work out the kinks, they're superior to broadside vessels"
Yes, there's something of a continuum between people who think the turret will never be useful and the ones who think it's already marvellous. Watts (at least this presentation of him) believes that the turret is currently inferior to the broadside, but that the time will soon come when it will be necessary to adopt it despite the flaws - and the flaws can be summed up simply: blast effect. Broadside guns have the muzzle outside the hull of the ship, but a turret by necessity has the gun's muzzle on deck - and for a cruiser, that is to say a rigged ship, that means setting off a fairly large gunpowder charge right in the middle of the rigging.

This was definitely not an idle concern at the time, even central-battery ironclads had serious blast problems when trying to arrange axial fire. There's plenty of examples of serious and expensive blast damage resulting from practice or test firings - on one occasion it blew the officer's toilets off the ship!
 
Seems like moderation has never been high on the list of human priorities :biggrin:

I also want to complain about the german language for a bit. Turrets at this time were either called Thurm (tower) or Kuppel (cupola/dome). Thurm isn't even spelled that way anymore, it's now Turm and both are much more frequent in terms of architecture, in conjunction with Schiff (ship) especially with churches. So if you want to know anything about german thoughts on turreted ships in this age, better get ready to sift through a ton of discussion on churches :coldsweat:
 

Saphroneth

Banned
My recommendation for ship design in the era, especially British ship design, is Warrior to Dreadnought (and Before the Ironclad for everything up to 1860 including a lot of ships shown TTL). It's not complete, it misses some things, but because it's an overview of all British ship design thought over the period and discusses the constraints it's very good.
 
21-30 October 1863

Saphroneth

Banned
21 October

Diaz begins clandestine plans to 'regularize' control of Republican Mexico, based on the fact that the man who would be the designated successor to Juarez (Ortega) is currently held captive by the Imperialist government after his defence of Puebla ended in capture.

At around the same time, the Republican faction in the south of the country holds their own election to select a "President-designate" - the claim being that there must be a clearly designated head of government.

22 October

HMS Taurus is formally purchased by the Japanese Bakfu. She is renamed Ushidoshi Maru, and will be delivered via a tow by HMS Furious at least as far as Singapore (since the Furious is being sent to New Zealand to replace the lost Curacoa).
She travels without her guns to reduce draft and increase freeboard (a matter of safety - the Ushidoshi Maru is not the most seaworthy craft, though she can cruise under her own sail and steam both) which follow in a civilian screw steamer also purchased by the Bakfu -this time directly from the owners.
On arrival in Japan, she will be rearmed with four 110 pounder Armstrong rifles, four 68 pounder smoothbores and four 32 pounder smoothbores - six guns total per side.


24 October

The results of the election for the southern Mexican Republicans are sufficiently in for arguments to start. As it has transpired, each region has voted overwhelmingly for the local candidate, and as a consequence no-one has a majority.
Acrimonious messages begin to travel back and forth.


26 October
Work on the new Danish constitution is proving completely intractable - the London Protocol is nearly impossible to fulfil given the state of the dynasties, as Schleiswig and Denmark share the next in line (albeit a cadet branch) but Holstein does not, and the prospective inheritor of Holstein claims the entire Danish Federation but is considered overly German by the people of Denmark. Further complicating matters is that the Protocol itself states that the constititional affinity of Denmark to the two duchies (Schleiswig and Holstein) should be no greater between the one and the other.

The closest thing to a resolution would be for Schleiswig and Denmark to remain in personal union and Holstein to drop out, but nobody considers this the best result. The solution being pursued by the Danish parliament is to accept the reality of the succession - losing Holstein - and then to rectify the constitutional problems rather than allow them to continue to fester, though even this is merely a majority view.


29th October

A French-led Imperial assault on the city of Guadalajara results in an interruption in the flow of letters about who won what from whom in the recent election.
Also on this date, Diaz activates his plans to rectify the lack of organized government in the Republican-held areas in the north of Mexico. Officers loyal to him seize control of three of the largest cities in the Republican-held zone, but fail to consolidate their hold on Chihiahua itself after the former escort regiments of Juarez (still on alert and trying to make up for their failure) react before the coup-de-main has gathered momentum.

30th October

Ortega reads the newspapers provided by his jailers, and puts his head in his hands in dismay.
 

Skallagrim

Banned
Poor Ortega. Even the possibility that the imperials would let him go to cause a Republican split has been denied to him: the Republicans are already split, and a freed Ortega could only serve to unify at least some of the smaller factions. So he'll stay in jail, while the Republicans destroy themselves.

Well, at least a liberal-leaning emperor who is firmly in the saddle can hopefully do some good for Mexico.

EDIT: it suddenly occurs to me that it would be very ironic if Diaz somehow manages to consolidate the north and then makes a deal to turn that region into a republican state. You'd have the conservative imperials under a liberal emperor, and the liberal republicans under an authoritarian president(-for-life)! It's probably not going to happen like that, but maybe those whacky Confederates could lend diplomatic support to Diaz? I imagine the typical Confederate plantation-owning-politician will see a kindred spirit in Diaz...
 
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Saphroneth

Banned
There is something Ortega could do to both aid his own skin and also help put a lid on the violence, as it happens. It would depend heavily on how strongly he believes in Republican government versus how strongly he believes in the wellbeing of Mexico, though.


I wonder how things are actually going in New Zealand...

The Land Wars are continuing, with pretty much the same broad scope of results - the loss of the Curacoa makes things harder for the NZ colonial government, but they were already ahead of OTL since they have a Snider battalion already present. The two are heading in the vague direction of cancelling out - more or less, anyway.
 
I wonder if the Militia has acquired more breachloaders than OTL.

IIRC our militia was fielding more then a few commercially available breachloaders.
 
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