If they will not meet us on the open sea (a Trent TL)

Saphroneth

Banned
Basically it's because some people have suggested the Union would build earthwork forts to shelter their ports and thus Solve All Problems with Royal Navy attack.

As you say, it's not really going to work like that.


1. Depending on availability of labour, it's not hard to build a basic protective earthwork but this really just provides protection for troops from the ballistic effects of explosions (sandbags are still used for this now). In other words, if the shell explodes inside the earth, the shrapnel will largely not be an issue. If it gets through before exploding, that's a different matter, which brings us to the next point.
True, which means the Armstrong's power in turn means those earthworks have to be about twenty feet thick at the point of shell impact - non trivial.


3. Earthworks won't protect against mortars, but did ships normally carry those?
The British had lots of mortar bombardment craft left over from the Crimea and could build more, so mortars are a solution that can turn up on about the same time order that the earthworks take to construct.


4. Presumably you're considering having the Union build some earthworks around already existing forts to provide some extra ballistic protection. Otherwise there are a few additional problems:
More that I'm just making clear why the Union hasn't solved the British Problem with earthworks - basically that they're a lot of effort to build and couldn't solve the problem in less than many months.

Also, I must say - thanks for the detailed post! Very helpful, I may quote it elsewhere...
 
I can't really see why earthworks would be considered worthwhile by the Union. They would take up labour which could more profitably be used in other areas. However, maybe putting some earth in front of the walls of forts might be considered to provide some protection and be worth it?
I would also add that unless some form of holding wall is put in front of the earthworks, you will find that the earth will not hold in a nice vertical line, but will collapse into a slope, thus allowing soldiers easier access to a fort (If piled up against the fort wall).....

Solve one problem, create another.
 
Related to the discussion about earthworks, but more generally about bombardment - how accurate was RN fire against shore targets at this time? If a ship was trying to hit a specific area of a fort (around a gun, for example), how close would the majority of shells/rounds get? I guess what I'm asking is what a good Circular Error of Probability was (CEP = 30ft means 50% of rounds hit within 30ft of target). That affects the thickness of defensive walls/earthworks required as well - if there's a good chance that multiple hits will occur at one point, the armour needs to be much thicker, as each hit will obviously remove some of it.
 

Saphroneth

Banned
Related to the discussion about earthworks, but more generally about bombardment - how accurate was RN fire against shore targets at this time? If a ship was trying to hit a specific area of a fort (around a gun, for example), how close would the majority of shells/rounds get? I guess what I'm asking is what a good Circular Error of Probability was (CEP = 30ft means 50% of rounds hit within 30ft of target). That affects the thickness of defensive walls/earthworks required as well - if there's a good chance that multiple hits will occur at one point, the armour needs to be much thicker, as each hit will obviously remove some of it.
Unfortunately I don't believe we have good records of that kind of thing - we have to extrapolate from two things.

First - how good it was against ships, and fortunately for that we have quite a lot of data as gunlaying techniques didn't change much for quite a while. The (rifled) guns of the Shah and her companion Amethyst scored around 25% hits on a manoeuvring target at ranges of around one mile. (This is very good.) That shows that the main problem at ranges of a mile or less will be deviation - not getting a shot "on" and not ship motion.
The 68-lber was an accurate gun in terms of deviation, and the Armstrong rifled pieces were also very nicely accurate.

Secondly - how did it do against forts.
We have less data here, but fortunately we have three very useful examples.

1) Bomarsund.
This was a modern fort being destroyed almost completely by British steam ships of the 1850s.
2) Kinburn.
600 yard range, the ironclads here forced the surrender of the enemy fort with their guns. These were French ships very much like Aetna, and as a point of interest they also carried Royal Marine contingents which were able to use rifle fire against the fort!
3) Japan.
Both Kagoshima and Shimonoseki were fought by the British primarily with their Armstrong guns.
Kagoshima (victory)
177 110-lber shells
187 40-lber shells
80 defending cannons

Shimonoseki (victory)
332 110-lber shells
312 40-lber shells
100 defending cannnos

So a few hundred heavy gun shells sufficed to defeat large numbers of enemy guns.


The overall conclusion I tend to reach is that:
1) At very close range - a few hundred yards - they can aim for individual gun ports and hit the area around them.
2) At medium-long range (600 yards for smoothbores, 1,400 yards for rifles) they can hit targets the size of small forts or ships with high accuracy.
3) Past that they're doing general area bombardment.

The hit rate will be low by modern standards - higher for Armstrongs and 68-lbers as these have so little deviation. But it'll be quite adequate to have the majority of the shells hit the right fort unless they're quite a long way off or using older SBML guns.
 
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2 May 1862

Saphroneth

Banned
2 May
Grant's forces attempt a breakout. The portion of the army for which small arms are unavailable is assigned to the artillery, serving as additional manpower, and this makes the guns much more mobile - letting them hit part of the Confederate lines with a high concentration of force, and break through to the north towards Goodlettsville.
A.S.Johnston reacts quickly, having the southernmost division of his army attack towards Nashville - which succeeds easily as most of the Union army has already left the city - and his men capture the bridge intact. Sending half his army this way, he has the remaining infantry concentrate to form two flanking columns and detaches his entire contingent of cavalry under Beauregard to head Grant off.

The running battle continues for several hours, with Confederate forces road-marching up behind the Union ones and the Confederate flanking columns interfering with any attempt by the Union to set up a blocking position. Beauregard and his cavalry are not able to make their way in front of Grant before Goodlettsville or to break into the column and scatter it, and Grant's vanguard set up at Goodlettsville as soon as they reach it - establishing a perimeter.
Johnston contemplates the situation, and decides to order a prompt attack - as little preparation time as feasible, so as to prevent Grant's men from fortifying their position or from retreating further north overnight. While driving them back to the mountains would be a significant achievement, he wants this army.
It takes until five in the afternoon for the Confederate artillery to be brought up, and - mindful of the time - Johnston has his men eat and recover their morale in the two hours of lull.
At ten past five, the Confederate guns open fire, bombarding a position on the crest of a shallow hill, and the infantry move in. Grant is trying to hold over five miles of front with 20,000 shooters, and has to keep some of them in reserve - so his line is thinner than he would like. (A two-deep firing line has two men per yard - he has enough for this, but it takes up well over half of his infantry.)


After the losses of the previous week, Grant has 35 smoothbore guns (mostly 6-lber) and 40 rifles, also mostly 6-lber. Those guns able to bear inflict many casualties on the Confederate attack, but the presence of the CS light guns being pushed forwards alongside their infantry (including many of the guns Grant's men had used last week) means that the Confederates keep coming longer than normal - they are heartened by their own artillery.

The first wave attack stops and ends up in a firefight at about 70 yards range, but the second wave twenty minutes later is Johnston's trick - it consists of the entirety of his cavalry, who charge home against a line already blasted by Confederate canister and all but unable to see them due to thick powder smoke. Several squadrons are nevertheless stopped by determined Union infantry, but the Third Division as a whole loses cohesion.

Grant's army is split in two by the collapse, and the main thing which will prevent a total surrender is the time. It takes long enough for Johnson to move in his own reserves to exploit the breach that evening is falling, and the Confederate general is denied his prize - two full divisions of Grant's army retreat on Springfield, with their Confederate opponents too disorganized to pursue, and fragments making up roughly one more division also filter out.
The impact on the Confederate army is considerable - their cavalry has been wrecked and will not be able to operate as a coherent arm for some time (the Confederate remount system is not able to supply remounts efficiently, consisting of the trooper providing his own horse) and the assault infantry have been badly chewed up, to the point that the total casualties exceed 4,000 killed and wounded.
The Union army, however, has been roughly halved in size. Grant now has 20,000 infantry left, around 9,000 of them without small arms, and the balance is mostly captured or wounded/killed. He has also lost most of his artillery.

Later historians will decide that both Grant and Johnston did not allow for their opponents making certain decisions, and that each missed opportunities. In particular, the Confederate cavalry should have been north of the river to begin with, while the Union would have been better served by setting up a narrower perimeter or perhaps, after all, arming some of their men with pikes to form anti-cavalry detachments.
 
3 May 1862

Saphroneth

Banned
3 May

The second attack on Presque Isle bay begins. Libra, Scorpio, Pisces and Capricorn are present, along with a trio of gunboats (the Mackerel, Magpie and Ripple) as a second line for bombardment purposes.
Their arrival so soon after the first - failed - attack is a cause for some consternation, though fortunately the week's time has let the Union shipwrights work around the clock and complete the two modified Casco class monitors.
These two ships - Suncook and Tunixis - are much reduced from the original Casco plans, and in the process of reducing them down to a smaller size of vessel it was noticed that they would not have any bouyancy under combat load. As such, these ships of what will become known as the Suncook class do not share the problem which would have befallen the Cascos if any had been completed - they are, in fact, able to float.
Both vessels have lighter side armour than the original Monitor and are shallower in draft, though mounting similar guns - Tunixis mounts one 11" Dahlgren and one 8" Parrott, while Suncook has a pair of Dahlgrens sleeved down to about 9" and rifled.
Their armour is similar to that of the Monitor as well, though a mild alteration has been essayed in that the 1" plates are separated by thin laminates of wood to absorb shock. It was in adding these that the original bouyancy calculations were redone, and the problem discovered - to whit, the original Casco were designed assuming 15/16" plates and seasoned wood, and ordered with 1" plates and greenwood.

The Zodiacs open their broadsides and begin shelling the Union earthworks at about 3pm. This cannonade goes on for about an hour, with the gunboats moving in to find good arcs, and at the end of this time the fortifications - not fully repaired from last week - are essentially wrecked, no longer able to offer meaningful resistance.
While this is going on, Suncook and Tunixis move to the shallow bar of the bay and begin firing on the British ships, using their relatively long range (for monitor-type ships) to reload and fire with some of the gun crews outside the armour box. This speeds things considerably, and over the next hour Libra takes several hits and the Magpie loses her 68-lber main gun to a 9" ball. The sleeved 9" guns are proving reasonably effective - at this range they are causing some concussion, and are being more accurate than the previous guns the Union was using - but full charges are not being used yet, as there is a considerable risk associated.
At about ten past four, the British ironclads move in. After the problems of last week, they now move en echelon - with the gunboats forming a second angled line behind them, ready to react. The Union ships move to counter them, with both Suncooks ordering their crews back behind the armour, and there is something of a lull, as it takes about a quarter hour for the British squadron to get to battle range and the Union gunners are not willing to risk firing off their readied artillery (fifteen minutes is the reload time for the 11" gun).

A few minutes before 4:30, the engagement moves into a final phase. Mines are detonated in the bar, sending up two plumes of dirty water but missing all the British ironclads (as before only a few of the devices were able to endure their time underwater) and the Union formation moves in.
It quickly dissolves into a melee, with the Zodiacs running out their loaded guns from behind armour shutters for just long enough to fire on visible targets, and the Suncooks trying to get the much-coveted direct hit they require. Over the course of the battle the Mackerel is hit hard by shellfire and left disabled, while the Scorpio takes a penetration which disables two guns (via a heavily overloaded 9" gun which fired successfully) and Libra loses her smokestack which renders her unable to move. The Pisces and Capricorn both take more minor damage, including the effects of a shell shooting away the bowsprit on the Pisces.
The Union ships are in serious trouble, however. Between them the British ships carry 33 68-lber high velocity guns and sixteen 110-lber rifles, along with a few lighter guns on the gunboats, and this concentration of fire renders the wooden ships hors d' combat before battering through the turrets of Suncook and Tunixis to force them to strike.

Battered but triumphant, Yelverton (flying his flag in the Capricorn) demands the surrender of the dockyards. This is met with stonewalling and silence, and ultimately he simply has his ironclads shell the fitting-out docks, slips and other shipbuilding equipment - thus destroying the Union's main naval construction centre on the Great Lakes at a stroke.
This task done, his flotilla puts hot shot into the grounded American vessels (Hunter and Chippeway) to destroy them, and leaves for Windsor.
 

Saphroneth

Banned
As an aside, someone suggested that under the dire financial straits the Union is now under they would repudiate/seize their debt to the British and any British investments. This is something I'm toying with, because it would help their short term problem... but it would frankly cripple the Union long term as nobody would trust them enough to invest significantly in industrialization for the next generation or so, certainly not the British. Instead the investment funds would go elsewhere, possibly to Mexico or even the CSA (if independent, which now looks quite likely).
 
As an aside, someone suggested that under the dire financial straits the Union is now under they would repudiate/seize their debt to the British and any British investments. This is something I'm toying with, because it would help their short term problem... but it would frankly cripple the Union long term as nobody would trust them enough to invest significantly in industrialization for the next generation or so, certainly not the British. Instead the investment funds would go elsewhere, possibly to Mexico or even the CSA (if independent, which now looks quite likely).

Damned if you do, damned if you don't.

I doubt Lincoln would. But how's that election looking?
 

Saphroneth

Banned
I doubt Lincoln would. But how's that election looking?
Midterms aren't for another six months. If Lincoln's current government won't countenance surrender, they should start looking into how to get out of Washington and possibly where to set up the temporary Congress... heck, the CSA may be sending troops to liberate Baltimore soon.
Alternatively, if McClellan is as power-hungry as he's sometimes been painted, there's few better excuses for the military taking civilian control than "the entire civilian government is under siege, I am the highest ranking military official in the land, and I am a modern Cincinnatus".
(I personally am not sure if he's that much of a power-grabber. But either way he's currently expected to make bricks without straw - at this point the only thing making the Union position remotely tenable is that the British have literally not crossed the border anywhere except Maine.)

I said the Union would keep going until 30 June 1862 before considering surrender, but at this point I'm not sure they'll make August. That small arms problem is a horrible, horrible millstone around the neck of the Union, it makes them essentially unable to exploit their numerical advantages - the next thing they're going to try is pulling men out of the coastal defence lines mere months after the British flattened almost every fort and dockyard on the eastern coast. Imagine explaining that one to the governor of New Jersey...
 
4 May 1862

Saphroneth

Banned
4 May
In response to an overture originally made in March by Kamehameha IV, the Kingdom of Hawaii becomes a formal protectorate of the British imperial crown. HMS Chesapeake is the local ship of force for now, and the HMS Lion is fitting out in Pembroke to be the nucleus of a Central Pacific station.
The Kingdom of Hawaii maintains full domestic authority, and in return for protection subordinates her foreign policy to Imperial policy - though the existing treaties the Kingdom has with other powers will be respected in most particulars.
Historians will note that the event which likely clinched the deal was when the American Lancaster was reported off Oahu - this was included in the dispatches which also carried Kamehameha's offer, and made the Admiralty press for the acquisition of the magnificent Pearl Harbour to allow better coverage. (Now they have Pearl, they are unlikely to easily give it up - indeed, plans are already drawn up for the coastal defence batteries, which are currently slated to include around forty 68-lbers in the channel, twenty facing south into the sea, and dozens of Armstrong guns. They will in the event be completed with Armstrong-Elswick heavy breechloaders - the minimum requirement is to be able to stand off attack from any two ocean-going vessels in the possession of any power.)
Also on this date, a number of troopships make landfall off the Californian coast (having reprovisioned in Hawaii in early April). The troopers carry six battalions of infantry from India (one British battalion, one Gurkha battalion, one Sikh battalion and three battalions from the Bengal army) and this force will garrison San Francisco for now - it is hoped to eventually have up to 20,000 troops from the Indian Establishment in the area, though this is largely mission creep from the Indian department as the original plan was simply to ensure bullion shipments stopped. (This has been achieved - the Union government is in dire financial straits, though not quite as bad as it could be simply because they are unable to buy anything overseas.)
 

Saphroneth

Banned
Things to mention in the next update (5 and 6 May):

Troops withdrawn from NY and NJ to reinforce the Army of the Potomac
CS artillery bombarding the Union lines around Rock Creek
A fiery speech by Fernando Wood (who's actually an antiwar Democrat - Mayor of NYC!) along the lines that the Republicans are unwilling to admit defeat while an Irishman or a German still lives to be inducted into regiments armed with pikes and shotguns.
Another of the Crazy Gadgets wing of the Union trying to defeat the blockade - not sure which, though. Perhaps the ram?
 
I might repeat myself... but why the French are not involved? At least formally... eventuality with some ships or at least add some diplomatic preasure.
Napoleon was the most fierce supporter of an alliance with Britain and was sympathetic to CSA. He will done anything to please Britain.
 

Saphroneth

Banned
I might repeat myself... but why the French are not involved? At least formally... eventuality with some ships or at least add some diplomatic preasure.
Napoleon was the most fierce supporter of an alliance with Britain and was sympathetic to CSA. He will done anything to please Britain.
Well, the French are involved. Not militarily, not unless the British bow out, but they're selling the Confederacy large numbers of modern weapons on good terms. 50,000 rifles that OTL went to the Union, for example, plus artillery, plus gunpowder, and quite possibly a ship or two down the line.
This is good for the British because it means the Union has more on its plate without the British actually aiding the slave-based nation directly.
 
Ok... so... the British have not asked assistance out pf pride? Have Napoleon offer it (very likely)?
No diplomatic declaration of British support and condemning the US act of war?
What I mean isthat is very unlikely that this conflict to not have international repercussions. It's different than an internal rebellion of some slave-owner states...

Have France recognised CSA?
 

Saphroneth

Banned
Ok... so... the British have not asked assistance out pf pride? Have Napoleon offer it (very likely)?
No diplomatic declaration of British support and condemning the US act of war?
What I mean isthat is very unlikely that this conflict to not have international repercussions. It's different than an internal rebellion of some slave-owner states...

Have France recognised CSA?
I mean the British haven't asked for assistance because this is fundamentally a war over honour - and because they don't feel they need it.
Napoleon may have offered and been turned down - but I don't need to have him condemn the US act of war or declare support for the British, that was OTL and pre-PoD.

France may or may not have recognized the CSA formally - they've almost certainly done so informally, as indeed have the British.
 

Saphroneth

Banned
Incidentally, as far as I am able to tell the "blockships" (converted Napoleonic liners turned into steam ships) had a draught shallow enough that they could sail up the Potomac. It's very hard to get draughts for wooden screw liners, but the Ajax is listed as 13 feet / 18 feet on one site while a sail ship and she was one of those turned into a blockship.
Doubt they'd do this, if they wanted to hit Washington they'd send Erebus and Thunderbolt, but it's there.
 

Saphroneth

Banned
Blenheim-class: 21ft 2in forward, 23ft 10in aft.
HMS Cornwallis: 20ft forward, 22ft 4in aft.
Ah, excellent - thanks.

So, let's see...
The limiting depth of the Potomac is Mattawoman Shoal, which is 21 feet low tide with a tidal sweep of three feet. That means that the Cornwallis could in fact reach Washington by making its way up the Mattawoman channel during the upper half of the tidal cycle - unless stopped by Fort Washington, but that's what the Terror is for.
 
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