If they will not meet us on the open sea (a Trent TL)

...Idiot Emperor.

...Seemingly Sensible Emperor (assuming Poland doesn't intervene or gain enough time to make reconquering it too painful to be doable.)

...Sensible Fire-Eater?

Go Stopfort! (awesome name by the way.)

Sensible Emperor!
 

Saphroneth

Banned
Fire-eaters can be sensible. It's just not something that they tend to be noticed for.

As for the Emperor, well, he's been in a bit of a bad situation. His best bet at the moment is that it all blows over, and it will seem to - but the effects on Imperial prestige compared to OTL will be there. (Just not something that people will actually know to be different.)


As for Alexander, he has no German cooperation TTL, which is always mentioned as a major component of the OTL suppression.
 
Royal Navy memorandum on Monitors

Saphroneth

Banned
On Monitors (Royal Navy internal memorandum)


The Monitor type has a number of advantages to it, both designed and accidental, and a number of commensurate disadvantages.

The first of the benefits is that the ship type is very low to the water, meaning that aside from those sections which rise above the normal freeboard it is very hard to hit from a ship that is rolling and tossing itself. The difficulty here is not the problem of aiming a gun for bearing, which is a relatively simple problem at moderate range, but that of getting the gun on for elevation - the roll of a ship may include several degrees of arc, and a problem already difficult when firing upon a high-sided ship of the line is much harder when the target vessel shows only a foot or so of freeboard.
However, this comes at a considerable cost - to whit, the ship is extremely unseaworthy. Not only is there green water across the deck in all but the most mild of seas, but the reserve bouyancy is measured in tonnes rather than in hundreds of tonnes - if the monitor is pierced enough to admit the sea, then it is quite likely the vessel will go to the bottom in short order unless the crew is very prompt. (In particular the Monitor will be very at risk when high on coal, such as at the beginning of a sea voyage.) Fighting a ship of this type in more than a moderate sea may be seen as nearly impossible.

The second is that the gun may be trained on either broadside, allowing a single mighty gun to do the work of two guns - one on each broadside - of another kind of vessel.
This is also its own disadvantage - a Monitor is vulnerable to attack on the side the turret is not facing - and brings questions of mechanical reliability. The recommendation is that any future Monitor-type ship constructed by or for the Admiralty should include a minimum of two turrets for redundancy and to fight both sides at once.

Third is that, as the Monitor is a pure steam vessel, it has no rigging and may use her turrets for true all-around fire. This carries with it severe penalties on range which need not be commented upon in any great depth.

Fourth is that the high turret, as the only vulnerable section of the ship, may be heavily armoured enough to resist even the greatest guns of the enemy.
This supposes that a shot-proof ship is possible, and the moment that a gun is developed which may pierce the turret then a Monitor is highly vulnerable - as the whole of the ship above the waterline is 'vital' and can cause the ship to sink or be disabled if pierced, while for another ship there are areas which can endure a battering or piercing without immediately rendering the vessel unfightable.

In addition to these points, it has been mooted that the low position of the turret in a classical monitor means that the vessel lacks 'command'. This is more a matter of the freeboard than anything, and indeed a low position for the guns may be preferable for a ship intended to fight at short to moderate range...
 
Given that Austria and Prussia themselves have large Polish minorities I doubt they would sit aside idly and let an independent Poland happen. Especially Austria could use this to regain Russias goodwill. If A-H, Prussia and Russia jointly jump on the Poles this could lead to a "strong" "two emperors and a king" alliance - changing Europe forever...
 

Saphroneth

Banned
I'm not so sure you're right on that one.
For Austria, well, they didn't get involved much OTL. And for Prussia, the difference here is the king - Frederick III is very much the liberal, so the cause of Congress Poland is one he views with favour.
 
Liberal does not mean stupid.

even OTL some Austrian decision makers believed that the differences with Russia on the BAlkans weigh less than the question of Poland.

Poland was divided 3 times in the last century and so all three neighbouring powers got a great deal of ancient Polish land with a large Polish population. As long as each of them keeps his part of Poland all is well, but should one of them allow for an independent Poland the two other powers would face an independent nation with a legitimate claim on part of their realm.
 

Saphroneth

Banned
Thing is, if pragmatism matters, then OTL the Kaiserreich supported an independent Poland as part of their strategy against Russia.

But aside from that, I think it's a really big ask - without Bismarck in the picture, anyway - for the Prussians to lend help to Russia for nothing. (OTL Bismarck extracted a promise from them that they wouldn't intervene in what would become the Austro-Prussian War, it's hardly something a liberal, progressive King of Prussia would allow for no recompense.)
 
Liberal does not mean stupid.

even OTL some Austrian decision makers believed that the differences with Russia on the BAlkans weigh less than the question of Poland.

Poland was divided 3 times in the last century and so all three neighbouring powers got a great deal of ancient Polish land with a large Polish population. As long as each of them keeps his part of Poland all is well, but should one of them allow for an independent Poland the two other powers would face an independent nation with a legitimate claim on part of their realm.

Alternately both might chose to encourage Polish emigration to the new state freeing up land for German speakers in accordance with the nationalist theories of the time. Then again nationalism was a fairly new thing and they may feel confident of the loyalty of their subjects whatever language they speak at home. The third option is of course that the best intentions can have a habit of biting you on the arse. Finally you could get a mix of two or more of the above.
 
In the 1860s there simply was no strategy against Russia - iof anything Russia was enemy to France and Britain - there were no definite enmities between Russia and Germany. Russia held grudges against Austria because of the Crimean war (which were more a matter of pride and diplomaty) - even the Balkans was not seen as battlefield between the Empires, but as battlefield of the Empires against the Ottomans.

There was no Drang nach Osten at THIS time...
 
15-22 August 1863

Saphroneth

Banned
15 August

Matters in South Carolina move towards a diminuendo. Small skirmishes continue, but no further clash of arms takes place.
The underwater damage to Royal Oak is patched (including by the paid labour of some few hundred slaves formerly used to work in the dockyards) and Stopfort feels he could take her up to Halifax for a proper repair job at any time.


19 August
Debate in the Confederate Congress over whether to declare war on Great Britain and deploy the full might of the Confederate Army. The South Carolinans are in favour, others are largely (though not entirely) against.
The debate breaks down into shouting over what some see as the South Carolinan desire to get the Confederacy to fix their problems.

General McClellan brings up the topic of a presidential run with his acquaintance Grant. Grant is broadly supportive, knowing McClellan to be popular with his men in the late war, though he is a little surprised when he is reminded that McClellan is in fact a Democrat. (Grant is a Republican man, though not currently a particularly passionate one.)


21 August

Maximism is becoming increasingly popular in the northern sections of the Confederacy. Indeed, it is becoming sufficiently notable - and reported on in London - that Charles Darwin has already begun writing a statement to the effect that there is "...no evidence... that the varied appearances of man bespeak a variation in talent in any of the skills of civilization that could result in one being rationally favoured over the other..."
Nevertheless, Darwin is troubled by Maximism - in particular, in the argument that miscegenation must be avoided for it will dilute the superiority of the White race. He does not agree with the sentiment, but "dilution" points out a problem in how superior traits are to be passed down and how they arise in the first place.


22 August
The hull of the Puritan is laid down in New York City.
Puritan's design is essentially to be an improved and even more heavily armoured Dictator (herself not launched yet) and is built to take the 20" Dahlgren gun. The idea is essentially that if British armour is too thick to pierce then the 20" gun (firing a cannonball estimated to weigh half a ton) will simply crush entire plates into the ship.
Seaworthiness is considered a secondary concern.
Notably, this is not precisely a ship order from the Ordnance department - instead the O.D. has set conditions for acceptance of the ship and has agreed to loan Ericsson the money to build the ship, with the price for non-completion of contract varying on a sliding scale depending on how far below specification Puritan is. The extreme end of the scale would lead to Ericsson losing all his patents, though this would only take place if the ship was a slow, poorly armed vessel which sank on launching. (Ericsson has had the load calculations checked by three different people, wanting to avoid the 'Casco situation', but feels his modification of his earlier 'Calvinist' sketches will impress well enough to meet contract).
 

Saphroneth

Banned
Maximism is, of course, the TTL version of Scientific Racism. I admit to a certain imp of the perverse in having it arise in Tennessee.
What may be particularly interesting, of course, is that this has led Darwin to think about the heredity problem a little earlier and more fully... and, by the nature of things, this will bring it out into the scientific eye somewhat more - that is, "blending inheritance" as being the main objection to an otherwise efficacious theory is a topic that will become well discussed...
...and, somewhere in Brno, a kindly man is just finishing breeding a monumental number of peas.
 
...and, somewhere in Brno, a kindly man is just finishing breeding a monumental number of peas.
So Gregor Mendel may actually experience the renown he deserves TTL? Interestingly from what I remember of my lecture on him, his results were actually too good, not showing the variation that is statistically expected. They think the monks were stepping on some of the peas discretely, which of course he wouldn't have known anything about.
 

Saphroneth

Banned
So Gregor Mendel may actually experience the renown he deserves TTL? Interestingly from what I remember of my lecture on him, his results were actually too good, not showing the variation that is statistically expected. They think the monks were stepping on some of the peas discretely, which of course he wouldn't have known anything about.
Quite likely, yes.
And you're right on the statistical issue, though I think he did say they were the best (and hence most close to the ideal) subset.
Don't forget that at this time nice and neat results were not considered suspicious but excellent! What's more, it makes such sudden and blazingly intuitive sense - right down to very human examples of heredity, such as blue/brown eyes or blond/brown hair - that if Darwin gets his hands on it in the eighteen sixties we might see full fledged genetic science not long after. (It'll of course soon turn out that peas are pretty simple as things go, and that genetics is much more complicated - but the TTL Punnett square may well appear before the OTL inventor was born. If this works out.)

As a sidenote, my own family is something of a showcase of alleles - we're all blue eyed, but my siblings and I have brown/bright blonde/red hair between us.
 

Saphroneth

Banned
at the moment
The Royal Navy is the Royal Navy, and the other Confederate States refuse to lend South Carolina any more ships because they will be broken. The Brits have about seventy capital ships along with smaller ones in proportion, the South Carolinans have about one improvized rived gunboat.

It is a tad one sided.


(ED: the reason I asked for clarity is that the naval situation in the UK-South Carolina war is actually more one sided than the situation in the Polish Uprising - the Polish have about the same amount of naval force (to whit, one gunboat) but the Russian Navy is smaller)
 
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24-29 August 1863

Saphroneth

Banned
24 August

Armstrong publishes the first edition of his Temperature-Corrected Resistance Tables, graphs and tables which attempt to show the effectiveness of artillery at piercing different thicknesses of iron at different temperatures.
With at least four variables to show (armour thickness, weapon, distance and temperature) Armstrong has elected to show iron thickness against range on a two-axis plot, with a separate curve for each temperature and a separate page for each combination of gun, shell and powder load. The type of mark (cross, circle or the like) represents what kind of damage was done, such as cracking the plate or piercing through to the backing.

While still in the preliminary stages (they only report the effectiveness of British guns, only against solid 'B' grade wrought iron rejected from the main line ironclads, and there are considerable uncertainties) these nevertheless form a useful resource and represent an important collection of scientific information.
They also represent a very impressive quantity of damaged iron and expended powder - though Armstrong's ulterior motive is nevertheless fulfilled, as it demonstrates that his heavy rifles are far more able to pierce thick armour when the Palliser shell is used than any of the guns currently in full service. (Also notable is that the 68 lber 112 cwt is far more powerful than had really been appreciated, largely due to the staggering powder load of 24 lbs when fired at full charge.)


26 August
The Confederate Congress debates a major sticking point in the Charleston Crisis - to whit, the Confederate government does not currently have the ability to compel a State to stop doing something even if that action (or inaction) threatens the entire Confederacy. Today it is South Carolina and slave trading (...firing on British ships, refusing to apologize, taking free blacks as slaves...) but tomorrow it may be a Maryland raid across the border into Pennsylvania, a seizure of Spanish islands by Florida or a Texan invasion of Mexico (and thence a war with France, as things seem to be going).
As such a bill is proposed which would grant full Confederate governmental authority if needed over "all matters of relations to foreign powers". The bill is itself heavily debated, and undergoes several revisions though these do not change the thrust of it.
Jefferson Davis, though well-respected, declines to support or condemn the bill - he feels it would be wrong of him to support something which would after all directly expand the powers of his own office quite considerably.


29 August
French/Imperial capture of La Pesca with the support of the Magenta, thus closing the coast and driving Mexican Republicans in the north back entirely on smuggling (through Imperial Mexico or over the Confederate border) for foreign supplies.
On the same day, in a combination of blazing heat and torrential rain, the city of Oaxaca (in Oaxaca) is captured from the Republicans. The rain is heavy enough that misfires take place aplenty, and in particular the Republican artillery in the defensive earthworks of Fort Juarez is all but unable to properly fire cannister as final-protective-fire (and as such the French assault gains the parapet with unexpectedly low casualties, thus unhinging the defence and leading to a swift capture of the city).
This city was where Benito Juarez began his political career, and as such the capture is seen as significant.
One lesson taken from this event is that barbette earthworks (while more resistant to shot and especially shell) do not necessarily offer the same kind of overhead rain (or shell) protection as a well built masonry fort.
 
22 August
The hull of the Puritan is laid down in New York City.
Puritan's design is essentially to be an improved and even more heavily armoured Dictator (herself not launched yet) and is built to take the 20" Dahlgren gun. The idea is essentially that if British armour is too thick to pierce then the 20" gun (firing a cannonball estimated to weigh half a ton) will simply crush entire plates into the ship.
Seaworthiness is considered a secondary concern.

I sense calamity hovering over this.
 
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