If they will not meet us on the open sea (a Trent TL)

[Yeti]

It's certainly possible that there'd be plans for war winning gadgetry, but given the dire state of the Union's situation in military terms (which is that Washington is under siege and the Virginia is lobbing the odd shell into the capital) I don't think there's the capability to muster up anything major.

Frankly at this point I'm trying to work out what the Union would be willing/compelled to give in a peace - part of the problem is that Washington DC is fifty miles into "Slave Country", but the Rappahanock River as a peace border means no Maryland or Delaware for the CS.

Agreed, at this point gadgetry won't win the war for the Union unless peace with the UK can be bought. The USA doesn't have time to develop anything.
In this TL the Union would sue for peace, but I think they'd seek a separate peace with England, and I imagine long before things get this bad?
At minimum I'd guess after the cataclysmic defeat in the Chesapeake, but before the British fleet hits NYC you'd have Lincoln putting out notice he'd like to negotiate peace.
If we go with the premise of the TL, it would still be very clear to Lincoln at that point that the likelihood of the USA defeating the British fleet was minimal.
Would the British be so angry that they'd continue to prosecute the war if the USA says 'uncle' earlier?

I mean, apologizing to UK, giving up the northern half of Maine, a St Lawrence buffer, and paying reparations for the cost of the British war effort should ameliorate Britain, no?
The Union is in a bad way vs. the Confederacy, but once UK is out of the picture they still have the strength to continue the war.
I don't see the UK caring about whether the Confederacy succeeds in gaining independence or not, even if they recognized the CSA as an independent nation prior.
Why would UK be so loyal to the Confederacy, the last westernized nation to whole-heartedly support slavery?

As for the Confederacy, there's no way they let northern Virginia go in this situation. In the peace negotiations scenario as you've laid it out the Potomac would continue to be the Virginia-Maryland border; I mean, Lee's ancestral home is on the Potomac. I don't see unconquered states on either side being balkanized. I think there'd be plebiscites. Since Maryland, Delaware, and Kentucky did not secede in 1861, I don't see them joining the Confederacy at this point. Maybe Kentucky since the CSA did establish a state government there during the war; but I'm guessing it stays in the Union since it didn't secede in 1861. Getting Union troops out of the original 11 Confederate states and having their independence recognized by the USA would achieve all the CSA's wartime goals. But, as I said, I don't see why the USA and UK would let their conflict proceed to the point of a 3-way peace deal.

The Indian Territory (Oklahoma) would be a point of contention. Who gets responsibility for that?
Who do the tribes there ally with? Are their loyalties divided or is there space for an independent Amerindian nation to develop sandwiched between the two American countries?
That's a fascinating what if all by itself!
And, I see now that you just posted about this very question

By-the-by...well written and fantastically researched!

 

[Colonel Troutstrangler]

Probably not too far from the truth!!!

Perfectly understandable. Someone was probably counting trees for a nice orderly handover.

 

[Saphroneth]

Agreed, at this point gadgetry won't win the war for the Union unless peace with the UK can be bought. The USA doesn't have time to develop anything.
In this TL the Union would sue for peace, but I think they'd seek a separate peace with England, and I imagine long before things get this bad?
At minimum I'd guess after the cataclysmic defeat in the Chesapeake, but before the British fleet hits NYC you'd have Lincoln putting out notice he'd like to negotiate peace.
If we go with the premise of the TL, it would still be very clear to Lincoln at that point that the likelihood of the USA defeating the British fleet was minimal.
Would the British be so angry that they'd continue to prosecute the war if the USA says 'uncle' earlier?

I mean, apologizing to UK, giving up the northern half of Maine, a St Lawrence buffer, and paying reparations for the cost of the British war effort should ameliorate Britain, no?
The Union is in a bad way vs. the Confederacy, but once UK is out of the picture they still have the strength to continue the war.
I don't see the UK caring about whether the Confederacy succeeds in gaining independence or not, even if they recognized the CSA as an independent nation prior.
Why would UK be so loyal to the Confederacy, the last westernized nation to whole-heartedly support slavery?

As for the Confederacy, there's no way they let northern Virginia go in this situation. In the peace negotiations scenario as you've laid it out the Potomac would continue to be the Virginia-Maryland border; I mean, Lee's ancestral home is on the Potomac. I don't see unconquered states on either side being balkanized. Since Maryland, Delaware, and Kentucky did not secede in 1861, I don't see them joining the Confederacy at this point. Maybe there'd be a plebiscite in Kentucky since the CSA did establish a state government there during the war; but I'm guessing it stays in the Union since it didn't secede in 1861. Getting Union troops out of the original 11 Confederate states and having their independence recognized by the USA would achieve all the CSA's wartime goals. But, as I said, I don't see why the USA and UK would let their conflict proceed to the point of a 3-way peace deal.

The Indian Territory (Oklahoma) would be a point of contention. Who gets responsibility for that?
Who do the tribes there ally with? Are their loyalties divided or is there space for an independent Amerindian nation to develop sandwiched between the two American countries?
That's a fascinating what if all by itself!

And by-the-by...well written and fantastically researched!

A lot of this is probably answered by the rest of the TL - I go back and fill in a lot of stuff before hitting the peace treaty. If you've still got questions I'll be happy to try to answer them.


Firstly - the war continuing to 30 June 1862 was baked in as an assumption, as I felt it unlikely the US would think it was bad enough to sue for peace before then - in the event this may not have been a valid assumption. (ED: though since I've been told in the past by one poster that he feels the Union given the rifle shortage would go on the defensive for the whole of 1862 and then counterattack, it may be that I've had them suing too early... )

Secondly - one of my internal assumptions is that the Union thinks the British are supporting the Confederacy, not realizing that the British are in it for themselves.

Thirdly - the UK believed OTL that the South splitting from the North would end slavery earlier, hence why they have a mild interest in the idea. (North would willingly end slavery, South would be forced to.)

As I say, any further questions at the end of things then let me know!

 

[Yeti]

A lot of this is probably answered by the rest of the TL - I go back and fill in a lot of stuff before hitting the peace treaty. If you've still got questions I'll be happy to try to answer them.


Firstly - the war continuing to 30 June 1862 was baked in as an assumption, as I felt it unlikely the US would think it was bad enough to sue for peace before then - in the event this may not have been a valid assumption.

Secondly - one of my internal assumptions is that the Union thinks the British are supporting the Confederacy, not realizing that the British are in it for themselves.

Thirdly - the UK believed OTL that the South splitting from the North would end slavery earlier, hence why they have a mild interest in the idea. (North would willingly end slavery, South would be forced to.)

As I say, any further questions at the end of things then let me know!

Sure, I can see your logic in the TL itself. I just wanted to give my constructive 2 cents. And of course, I recognize you wanted to play out the full wargame scenario of 'what-if a fleet based around Warrior met a fleet based around the Monitor?' since that's a lot of the fun of this TL.

Lincoln showed in OTL that he was enough of a realist to make drastic changes when faced with the probability of strategic defeat (witness the Emancipation Proclamation and the raising of black regiments). Getting his fleet annihilated at Chesapeake would have made the probability of defeat clear to him even if delusional US Admirals claimed the Union could still beat the Brits. Instead, he recognized what was necessary and precluded the war altogether, which was the only way for the USA to 'win' it (by not fighting it).

 

[Saphroneth]

Lincoln showed in OTL that he was enough of a realist to make drastic changes when faced with the probability of strategic defeat (witness the Emancipation Proclamation and the raising of black regiments).

Perhaps so, but it's not a unilateral matter for Lincoln to make peace - it depends on others - which is why I felt the original assumption was at least workable. And as I say I've in the past been told the US would essentially never surrender, so there was a small element of this TL trying to show what it means to not do so.

Getting his fleet annihilated at Chesapeake would have made the probability of defeat clear to him even if delusional US Admirals claimed the Union could still beat the Brits.

Chesapeake wasn't the annihilation of the US fleet TTL - New York is the closest example of that, so that at least would still happen (it's the first time a purpose built US ironclad shows up to fight the RN, actually.) The losses at the Chesapeake amount to the tiny Zouave and the sailing frigate Cumberland, while at New York the Union loses a sail liner, an ironclad, three steam frigates, a sail frigate, seven steam sloops and three sail sloops.

Instead, he recognized what was necessary and precluded the war altogether, which was the only way for the USA to 'win' it (by not fighting it).

I concur with that - OTL Lincoln defused the situation.
But TTL, well, 1812 was the memory in American minds - a war which they won (to them!) despite the crippling of their fleet precisely because they didn't give up and kept resisting British attack. It's easy enough to feel that the next new ironclad, the next wonder weapon, the next battle will push back the British - witness the Confederacy OTL, or indeed France in 1870-1 - that it can be quite hard to build a mandate for surrender.
It takes the double shock of a major land and major naval defeat around the end of June 1862 to finally result in Congress agreeing that they must sue for peace.
Either way, IMO after the Battle of New York TTL the Union's chances of winning the war (or at any rate beating the Confederacy anything like on schedule) are "odds off" even if the Royal Navy leaves immediately. The Confederacy's fighting power is so swollen compared to OTL by the extra rifles, and the Union's purchases so frustrated compared to OTL (and the Confederate navy actually larger than the Union one!) that the prospect of the Anaconda Plan working is low to say the least, and the Confederacy has the kind of momentum which can drive a crippling midterms election for the War faction in Congress.
Much like most civil wars and indeed most of history, once the basic military mechanics are accounted for it's mostly about perception.


...speaking of which, my hope is to tomorrow get started on the Battle of Charleston. I may do a little vignette beforehand, though...

 

[sarahz]

It's simple.


Joking aside, here's how it stood at the time:

1) Each state has Senators and Representatives. Each state always has two Senators, the number of Representatives is proportional to population but is always at least one. (They use districts for Representatives, Senators are statewide.) All these are first-past-the-post.
2) Each state, for presidential elections, has a number of electoral votes equal to the total of their number of senators plus their number of representatives. (So, for example, California TTL with two Reps and two Senators has four.)
3) The states select a number of electors equal to their number of electoral votes. In practice this amounts to directly voting for a presidential ticket, and the winner in each state gets the electoral votes of that state.
4) If one candidate has an absolute majority of possible electoral votes for the Presidential or Vice Presidential position, they have automatically won.
5) Otherwise (if no candidate has an absolute majority) the House of Representatives selects the President (each state delegation getting one vote) from the top three candidates by Electoral Votes, and the Senate selects the Vice President (same). This means that if it goes to the House then tiny Delaware (1 Rep) has the same voting power as massively populated NY (31 Reps). The decision must be made by the inauguration.
6) If the House has decided and the Senate has not, the new President picks a VP; if the Senate has decided and the House has not, the new VP is inaugurated and automatically becomes President; if neither has decided, the Speaker of the House succeeds all the way to the Presidency and goes down in the history books as a "jammy bugger".
7) (5) and on almost never happens.

so if the independent who is running neck and neck this year in Utah with trump wins and there is deadlock .....

 

[Saphroneth]

Waves crashed on the shore, making the sand and gravel rumble as backwash dragged at them.
The dawn's early light was still pinking the clouds far out over the Atlantic, providing only enough contrast to let Joseph P. Buckley (gunner, 2nd South Carolina militia artillery) make his way up the last few steps onto the parapet of Fort Gregg.
Yawning, Buckley looked to his left at Charleston itself. There were a few lamps visible, even at this distance, as the men of one of the great Confederate cities started the day early - earlier than usual - and more could be seen from the forts covering both sides of Charleston Harbour, and especially from the nearby Fort Sumter.
Buckley remembered when Sumter had been a normal fort, then a hated bastion of the Union, then the spark that lit the fire of independence, then a normal fort again - treasured as a site of national victory for the nascent Confederacy.
Now it was a bastion of the Confederacy against the uppity British.
Sipping at his steaming coffee, Buckley turned to look out to sea - and nearly dropped the mug.
Riding there on the swell, made visible by the dawn's light, was a whole forest of masts - dozens of ships, from sleek gunboats to the great hulking ships of the line to at least one almost unthinkably enormous paddle steamer which made the two-decker in front of it look small.
Buckley stared at that, then there was a sudden puff of white smoke and a shoom, moments later, which teased his ears.
The gunner took a moment to locate the source of the smoke, and the sight made him blink in surprise - not only did that not sound like a cannon, not from that distance, but the ship it had come from was facing almost directly at him - and her broadsides weren't facing any of the other forts.
Recovering his nerve, Buckley called down the steps. "Looks like they're firin'."
"Them Royal Navy fellers?" someone called up. "At us?"
"Damned if I know," Buckley answered, frowning. "Not like they'll hit anything at..."
Memory finally percolated. That didn't sound like a cannon... but it did sound like a mortar.
Reflexively, Buckley looked up - and dove for cover.
It didn't help. The one-ton shell landed almost on top of him after a flight of nearly half a minute, dug right through the earth glacis of Fort Gregg, and four seconds later five hundred pounds of powder detonated.
It was hardly a comfort to Buckley that it was the only direct hit HMS Superb would score the whole morning.

 

[Saphroneth]

so if the independent who is running neck and neck this year in Utah with trump wins and there is deadlock .....

Yes, that's correct. It is not completely impossible that he could win.


But take it to Chat.

 

[CaekDaemon]

Riding there on the swell, made visible by the dawn's light, was a whole forest of masts - dozens of ships, from sleek gunboats to the great hulking ships of the line to at least one almost unthinkably enormous paddle steamer which made the two-decker in front of it look small.

 

[Saphroneth]

snip

It's the Great Eastern, yes. Honestly, she's almost perfect for massive logistic operations in this time period so long as you can find a place to park her - and she would make a two-decker look small, HMS Victor Emmanuel is 230 feet long and Great Eastern is three times that!

Incidentally, my apologies to Baen books for jumping on the Buckley Bandwagon.

 

[James Ricker]

Excerpts from the Report on Indian Territory, delivered to the Confederate Congress in 1863


...began my sojurn into the lands of the Red Indians by setting out from Arkansas, entering into the Choctaw nation accompanied by seven fellows - four of them veterans of the War of Independence - and five of my most hardy slaves to carry our heavier belongings. Equipped with horses as we were, it was not an overlong trip before we encountered Indians of the Choctaw Nation...


...Chickasaw braves in particular were most eager to demonstrate for me their proficiency with the bow, rather than the rifle. I remain unconvinced of the value of this weapon on the battlefield, but one cannot spend more than a few hours in the presence of an Indian stalking his prey before concluding that for bushwhacking or ranging they are without peer; they seem to vanish into the undergrowth in a way quite remarkable to a white man, and their bows make neither the thunder nor smoke of a musket or rifle...


...unfortunate tension between the Kiowa and the Comanche in the last few months, which I regret to report is probably not without basis on both sides. The continual small skirmishes that take place form an ideal crucible for the most perfect kinds of experience at military skill, including the bushcraft I have alluded to previously, but one wonders if the same would take place if these red men had the temperament of whites...


...working my way back towards the east, I was struck by the far smaller size of the Seminoles section of the reservation as contrasted with that of the Cree. They are fewer in number, of course, and seemed glad to see my party...


...Fally was shot in the leg by one of the Kickapoo tribe, dependents of the Chickasaw, who I immediately called out for a duel owing to the injury he did to one of my finest slaves. The weapons were tomahawks, which I am not familiar with, but managed to acquit myself well I think and honour was satisfied. Please excuse the writing of this entry, for I am unable to use my right hand owing to the bandages and am dictating...


...in conclusion, it is my opinion that in the Indian Territory we have a fine source for warlike and skilled Indians to act as auxiliaries to our army. Over the last two months I have seen bowmen, tomahawk-men, lancers, riflemen, musketmen, foot and mounted, large and strong or small and elusive.
My count of those who would be fit to serve is one thousand three hundred and seventeen, exceeding by three hundreds and more that required by treaty, and I was unable to visit many of the smaller bands particularly in the Choctaw and Cherokee Nations. I believe the supply of firearms should be increased, and that the Red Indian may ably fulfill many of the roles that would otherwise be left to the White man...

Oh good cannon fodder

 

[Saphroneth]

Oh good cannon fodder

That's not actually their view, on this one - rather, it's still racial prejudice, but they feel that the Indians (while clearly not able to adequately fight in a formal battle or to handle logistics) are actually better at skirmishing and general scouting and hence useful that way. Racism doesn't just mean assuming everyone's uniformly crap at everything if they're not white.

 

[CaekDaemon]

It's the Great Eastern, yes. Honestly, she's almost perfect for massive logistic operations in this time period so long as you can find a place to park her - and she would make a two-decker look small, HMS Victor Emmanuel is 230 feet long and Great Eastern is three times that!

Incidentally, my apologies to Baen books for jumping on the Buckley Bandwagon.

I'm just glad that we get a chance to see her out and about - the story behind Brunel's last hurrah is just incredible stuff, especially when you consider the scale of the construction for the time, the fire at the dock that destroyed models and designs, Russel's bankruptcy...and the ship itself was an absolute beauty that should have gone to a museum, not a scrapper

I do wonder how many mortars you could fit on the massive monster's deck, though. Enough to level a fortress with the first volley, maybe?

 

[Saphroneth]

I do wonder how many mortars you could fit on the massive monster's deck, though. Enough to level a fortress with the first volley, maybe?

Mallet's Mortar can sort of do that by itself, if the fort's small enough. The blast of all that powder, especially underground, leaves a crater forty feet across and twenty deep!

 

[CaekDaemon]

Mallet's Mortar can sort of do that by itself, if the fort's small enough. The blast of all that powder, especially underground, leaves a crater forty feet across and twenty deep!

Perhaps they should send them some rockets, too, so that both lines of the US anthem can be present

 

[Cymraeg]

Perhaps they should send them some rockets, too, so that both lines of the US anthem can be present

"By the crater's dull glow" doesn't have quite the same ring to it, methinks.

 

[Saphroneth]

"By the crater's dull glow" doesn't have quite the same ring to it, methinks.

And where is that band who so vauntingly swore
That the havoc of war and the battle's confusion,
A home and a country, should leave us no more?
Their blood has washed out their foul footsteps' pollution.
No refuge could save the hireling and slave
From the terror of flight, or the gloom of the grave:
And the star-spangled banner in triumph doth wave,
O'er the land of the free and the home of the brave.

By those standards this is a bit "revenge of the slaves".

 

[edvardas]

Excerpts from the Report on Indian Territory, delivered to the Confederate Congress in 1863


...began my sojurn into the lands of the Red Indians by setting out from Arkansas, entering into the Choctaw nation accompanied by seven fellows - four of them veterans of the War of Independence - and five of my most hardy slaves to carry our heavier belongings. Equipped with horses as we were, it was not an overlong trip before we encountered Indians of the Choctaw Nation...


...Chickasaw braves in particular were most eager to demonstrate for me their proficiency with the bow, rather than the rifle. I remain unconvinced of the value of this weapon on the battlefield, but one cannot spend more than a few hours in the presence of an Indian stalking his prey before concluding that for bushwhacking or ranging they are without peer; they seem to vanish into the undergrowth in a way quite remarkable to a white man, and their bows make neither the thunder nor smoke of a musket or rifle...


...unfortunate tension between the Kiowa and the Comanche in the last few months, which I regret to report is probably not without basis on both sides. The continual small skirmishes that take place form an ideal crucible for the most perfect kinds of experience at military skill, including the bushcraft I have alluded to previously, but one wonders if the same would take place if these red men had the temperament of whites...


...working my way back towards the east, I was struck by the far smaller size of the Seminoles section of the reservation as contrasted with that of the Cree. They are fewer in number, of course, and seemed glad to see my party...


...How did he make it up to Hudson' Bay country?

 

[edvardas]

working my way back towards the east, I was struck by the far smaller size of the Seminoles section of the reservation as contrasted with that of the Cree. They are fewer in number, of course, and seemed glad to see my party...

How did he make it up to the Hudson's Bay Land

 

[Saphroneth]

The Seminoles and the Cree both had areas in Indian Territory.