If they will not meet us on the open sea (a Trent TL)

[The Gunslinger]

Hm, here's a question I admit myself to be not knowledgeable on.

TTL, the states of Maryland, Maine, Missouri and California have lost chunks of their land area and population (in some cases substantial). Would those be redivided into new - and in many cases fewer - House districts straight away, or would they be left until the next census?
The reason this matters is the 1864 election, because house districts calculate electoral votes.

I suspect that Maine is totally fine being that there are more moose than people in the area in question, or if there are changes they are very, very slight. Missouri is shorn of a small enough area that wasn't too heavily populated that it might be slightly affected. California will have to be rejigged given that it lost a third of the state.

Maryland is the interesting case though. Without Annapolis and Baltimore, there's barely a Maryland left. I don't know if it could be done, but maybe someone might try a proposal where the Delmarva peninsula becomes state after rump Maryland gets merged with Delaware.

 

[Saphroneth]

Hm. Going by the 1864 map to determine where the house district boundaries were, it looks like:

California loses one (down to two)

Maine loses one at most

Maryland is reduced to one

And Missouri loses one


So

State House members EVs
California 2 4
Connecticut 4 6
Delaware 1 3
Illinois 14 16
Indiana 11 13
Iowa 6 8
Kansas 1 3
Maine 4 6
Maryland 1 3
Massachusetts 10 12
Michigan 6 8
Minnesota 2 4
Missouri 8 10
New Hampshire 3 5
New Jersey 5 7
New York 31 33
Ohio 19 21
Oregon 1 3
Pennsylvania 24 26
Rhode Island 2 4
Vermont 3 5
Wisconsin 6 8

For a total of 208 EVs, or 105 to win outright.

 

[Saphroneth]

Report to the Italian parliament on the Webb frigates


These two ships - the King of Italy and the King of Portugal - are progressing very slowly for the money spent upon their procurement. Although launched after eighteen months on the slips, and now being twenty-one months after ordering - a time which would suffice to bring the 9,000 ton Warrior of England to just short of completion - the King of Italy is barely at a stage where she may be sent out uncased for testing.

Examination of the engine power in an uncased test has the King of Italy making 8 1/2 knots, due to the deficiencies of the engines, which is far below the contracted speed and which would render her incapable of effectively serving with the fleet without slowing them to below the speed of a steam liner. This problem would only increase once cased and armed.

Inspection of the armour plates acquired for casing the two frigates shows them to be severely below the requirements, being silicaceous and fragile, and with unevenness resulting from the forging process that has not been corrected.
On my insistence a plate was tested, and showed a resilience far less than that in the original contract.

Commander Saint-Bon reports that the timbers making up the hull, both of the King of Italy and of the King of Portugal, are substandard - constructed from green timber rather than high quality seasoned timber, despite the assurances of the builder W.H.Webb that seasoned timber could be procured. The effects of green rather than seasoned timber on the sailing and maintenance qualities of an ironclad need not be elaborated upon.

No subdividing of the hull is present below the waterline, making the vessels far more vulnerable to submarine explosives or to the impact of a steam ram than would be desired - a point stressed in particular by Saint-Bon who feels that his design for the Sinker would be able to defeat both the King of Italy and the King of Portugal in the space of half an hour, as once holed there would be no stopping the entry of water.

I feel strongly, and Saint-Bon is in agreement with me, that these ships require serious remedial work unless measures are promptly taken to fix these defects.

 

[Saphroneth]

Also, I'm a little tempted to be ever-so-slightly naughty and have Great Eastern or Prince Consort armed with some 68-lber 112 cwt. They're far rarer than the normal 68-lber 95cwt, but there were still 35 of them built and they used a 24 lb powder charge for battering!

68 lber 95 cwt:

12 lbs powder
1580 fps (131 fps per lb)

16 lbs powder
2040 fps (127 fps per lb)

68 lber 112 cwt:

24 lbs powder
~2900 fps or more? (2880 at 120 fps per lb)

Based on Krupp's formula, where velocity is proportional to armour penetration, this suggests that the 112 cwt could penetrate nearly half again the armour thickness that the 95 cwt could. Add in that these are going to be Palliser shells, and that Confederate armour is sub-ideal, and that might actually achieve the wonder achievement (for the time) of putting a shell right through the armour of an ironclad and having it burst in the fighting compartment.

 

[Colonel Troutstrangler]

I'm going to have to get my head around the American voting system - it seems totally alien to me. However, I freely admit I don't understand it - yet.....

 

[Saphroneth]

I'm going to have to get my head around the American voting system - it seems totally alien to me. However, I freely admit I don't understand it - yet.....

It's simple.


Joking aside, here's how it stood at the time:

1) Each state has Senators and Representatives. Each state always has two Senators, the number of Representatives is proportional to population but is always at least one. (They use districts for Representatives, Senators are statewide.) All these are first-past-the-post.
2) Each state, for presidential elections, has a number of electoral votes equal to the total of their number of senators plus their number of representatives. (So, for example, California TTL with two Reps and two Senators has four.)
3) The states select a number of electors equal to their number of electoral votes. In practice this amounts to directly voting for a presidential ticket, and the winner in each state gets the electoral votes of that state.
4) If one candidate has an absolute majority of possible electoral votes for the Presidential or Vice Presidential position, they have automatically won.
5) Otherwise (if no candidate has an absolute majority) the House of Representatives selects the President (each state delegation getting one vote) from the top three candidates by Electoral Votes, and the Senate selects the Vice President (same). This means that if it goes to the House then tiny Delaware (1 Rep) has the same voting power as massively populated NY (31 Reps). The decision must be made by the inauguration.
6) If the House has decided and the Senate has not, the new President picks a VP; if the Senate has decided and the House has not, the new VP is inaugurated and automatically becomes President; if neither has decided, the Speaker of the House succeeds all the way to the Presidency and goes down in the history books as a "jammy bugger".
7) (5) and on almost never happens.

 

[Colonel Troutstrangler]

Also, I'm a little tempted to be ever-so-slightly naughty and have Great Eastern or Prince Consort armed with some 68-lber 112 cwt. They're far rarer than the normal 68-lber 95cwt, but there were still 35 of them built and they used a 24 lb powder charge for battering!

68 lber 95 cwt:

12 lbs powder
1580 fps (131 fps per lb)

16 lbs powder
2040 fps (127 fps per lb)

68 lber 112 cwt:

24 lbs powder
~2900 fps or more? (2880 at 120 fps per lb)

Based on Krupp's formula, where velocity is proportional to armour penetration, this suggests that the 112 cwt could penetrate nearly half again the armour thickness that the 95 cwt could. Add in that these are going to be Palliser shells, and that Confederate armour is sub-ideal, and that might actually achieve the wonder achievement (for the time) of putting a shell right through the armour of an ironclad and having it burst in the fighting compartment.

Would that be reasonable ? Given that the vessel is already in theatre, or are you possiting that she had them from day one?

 

[Saphroneth]

Would that be reasonable ? Given that the vessel is already in theatre, or are you possiting that she had them from day one?

Basically that they were loaded on before she was sent out - minor retcon, they're still 68-lbers and the justification would be an insurance policy against the new Palliser shells being less effective than expected and the Confederate ironclads being tougher than expected.

 

[Colonel Troutstrangler]

7) (5) and on almost never happens.[/QUOTE]

Easy peasy then, says he scratching his head.

 

[Saphroneth]

Now, what makes the alt-1864 election potentially interesting is what the Democratic and Republican platforms will be - which in turn largely depends on who they nominate, especially for the Republicans.

I think McClellan would be a possible Democratic nominee for P or VP, since his conduct in the war was (while hardly stellar) at least as understandable as OTL. But the Democratic platform is fairly obvious and it's as cerebro has stated - the Democrats want to blame the loss of the war on the Republicans, they want to blame the war itself on the Republicans, they want to blame just about everything on the Republicans, and they want the US to resume making lots of money by way of trade. That may play quite well in states like NY which have taken a few nasty shocks (and where there's already Democratic support - OTL NY was Republican by a one-point margin).

The Republican platform's... much harder, as it depends who gets the nod. Lincoln running again would make the Democratic platform work almost perfectly for the "blame game", and Seward (OTL runner up in 1860) is not very likely as his foreign policy is equally blameable.
Given that, there's two options for the Republican party to nominate - either a Radical Republican (e.g. Fremont) or a middle-of-the-road candidate too junior to be tarred by the Whoops Trent brush. I can't really see the OTL runner up of 1864 (Grant) being very well supported as he's just not stood out much TTL.

 

[Colonel Troutstrangler]

Mmmm, its at times like this that someone comes out of the shadows and wins the nominations, either the best of a bad bunch or an unknown who takes the ticket by being a "new face" and not being one of the Trent Farce Management Team

 

[Saphroneth]

Mmmm, its at times like this that someone comes out of the shadows and wins the nominations, either the best of a bad bunch or an unknown who takes the ticket by being a "new face" and not being one of the Trent Farce Management Team

Yes, though of course even then they'll have the problem that so far Lincoln is the only Republican president.
My wonder is whether the Republicans will want to say "We're not like the Confederacy!" and back a plan of compensated emancipation or even of a constitutional amendment banning slavery (in which case Fremont is the clear option) or if they want to try something else.

 

[Derek Pullem]

Congressional Districts are based on apportionment which is based on the census every ten years. They come and go all the time ... recently several states lost districts while several others gained them as a result of the 2010 census. So no they wouldn't change until the 1870 Census which isn't that far off from the postwar era of your timeline. It would take a special act of Congress to change it, and no one is going to be too excited about that

Not an expert on American politics but that seems unlikely. If you have the Census data down to district level from 1860 wouldn't you try to reapportion the 1864 election boundaries / seats electoral votes on that basis. It would be odd for California to be over represented in the 1864 elections on the basis of the population of Confederate state of Colorado.

Would there still be elections for the "Confederate" districts in that scenario?

 

[Saphroneth]

Not an expert on American politics but that seems unlikely. If you have the Census data down to district level from 1860 wouldn't you try to reapportion the 1864 election boundaries / seats electoral votes on that basis. It would be odd for California to be over represented in the 1864 elections on the basis of the population of Confederate state of Colorado.

Would there still be elections for the "Confederate" districts in that scenario?

That's why I'm reducing the California districts from three to two - two of the districts are mostly north of the boundary, so they're still valid, one of them is almost entirely in *Colorado so isn't. Same logic for Maine and Maryland, and it's Maryland which is the huge difference as it's shrunk dramatically in population size from five districts to one.

The equivalent would be how Kentucky split off from Virginia in 1792, or how Maine split from Massachusets in 1820 - the remains of the split state didn't still elect House Reps to the lost sections.

 

[FriendlyGhost]

a plan of compensated emancipation or even of a constitutional amendment banning slavery

Would there be any perceived risk of this sort of plan maybe driving slave-owners to move to the CSA? If that were the case (note I say perceived, not necessarily actual risk), then might the question of slavery be put (left?) on the back-burner in the USA?

 

[cerebropetrologist]

Not an expert on American politics but that seems unlikely. If you have the Census data down to district level from 1860 wouldn't you try to reapportion the 1864 election boundaries / seats electoral votes on that basis.

I think you're right- it has to be on the basis of the census data, but you can pass a redistricting law at any time. The only question is, would it pass Congress? Which party is likely to benefit from states like Maine and California being over-represented (and the Southern States, I suppose, still theoretically receiving members) and do they have sufficient to block any move to reorganise the system? The reapportionment after the 1920 election failed, so clearly there's a precedent for this sort of thing.

Mmmm, its at times like this that someone comes out of the shadows and wins the nominations, either the best of a bad bunch or an unknown who takes the ticket by being a "new face" and not being one of the Trent Farce Management Team

I reckon it's going to be a jobber- most decent candidates would prefer to sit this one out. You really want someone sufficiently moderate and likeable to minimise the 1864 loss and build for recovery in future years. You certainly don't want a cabinet member, as the Democrats can attack pretty much every aspect of the Lincoln administration.

Bear in mind that by convention the candidate doesn't campaign at this stage: they're more or less a figurehead, and they won't get an opportunity to put their case directly to the electorate. I want to say Jacob Collamer, if only for the alt-alt-history where he manages to win...

 

[Derek Pullem]

I think you're right- it has to be on the basis of the census data, but you can pass a redistricting law at any time. The only question is, would it pass Congress? Which party is likely to benefit from states like Maine and California being over-represented (and the Southern States, I suppose, still theoretically receiving members) and do they have sufficient to block any move to reorganise the system? The reapportionment after the 1920 election failed, so clearly there's a precedent for this sort of thing.

Actually having googled a bit I think the potential for states not to agree changes to districts and hence voting rights is quite large - so you might get a "vacancy" in these "Confederate" seats which is filled in the normal way. Not sustainable but maybe possible to survive an election round (or even two).

 

[Saphroneth]

Actually having googled a bit I think the potential for states not to agree changes to districts and hence voting rights is quite large - so you might get a "vacancy" in these "Confederate" seats which is filled in the normal way. Not sustainable but maybe possible to survive an election round (or even two).

I have to admit, I'm almost tempted to make an ATL cartoon mocking Marylanders trying to keep their old representation... where the tiny sliver of prewar Virginia which the Union kept (and joined to either PA or OH) attempts to claim it's still entitled to eleven House seats, two Senators and thirteen Electoral Votes.

 

[Cymraeg]

The Old Northwest, or as it is now known, the Midwest, includes everything east of the Mississippi River by the Treaty of Paris, plus an ill defined area north of the Mississippi's source to the Lake of the Woods. The British were supposed to evacuate with 'all deliberate speed", the Jay Treaty in 1794 reaffirmed that promise

The British forts were still there in 1812

Perfectly understandable. Someone was probably counting trees for a nice orderly handover.

 

[Saphroneth]

Excerpts from the Report on Indian Territory, delivered to the Confederate Congress in 1863


...began my sojurn into the lands of the Red Indians by setting out from Arkansas, entering into the Choctaw nation accompanied by seven fellows - four of them veterans of the War of Independence - and five of my most hardy slaves to carry our heavier belongings. Equipped with horses as we were, it was not an overlong trip before we encountered Indians of the Choctaw Nation...


...Chickasaw braves in particular were most eager to demonstrate for me their proficiency with the bow, rather than the rifle. I remain unconvinced of the value of this weapon on the battlefield, but one cannot spend more than a few hours in the presence of an Indian stalking his prey before concluding that for bushwhacking or ranging they are without peer; they seem to vanish into the undergrowth in a way quite remarkable to a white man, and their bows make neither the thunder nor smoke of a musket or rifle...


...unfortunate tension between the Kiowa and the Comanche in the last few months, which I regret to report is probably not without basis on both sides. The continual small skirmishes that take place form an ideal crucible for the most perfect kinds of experience at military skill, including the bushcraft I have alluded to previously, but one wonders if the same would take place if these red men had the temperament of whites...


...working my way back towards the east, I was struck by the far smaller size of the Seminoles section of the reservation as contrasted with that of the Creek. They are fewer in number, of course, and seemed glad to see my party...


...Fally was shot in the leg by one of the Kickapoo tribe, dependents of the Chickasaw, who I immediately called out for a duel owing to the injury he did to one of my finest slaves. The weapons were tomahawks, which I am not familiar with, but managed to acquit myself well I think and honour was satisfied. Please excuse the writing of this entry, for I am unable to use my right hand owing to the bandages and am dictating...


...in conclusion, it is my opinion that in the Indian Territory we have a fine source for warlike and skilled Indians to act as auxiliaries to our army. Over the last two months I have seen bowmen, tomahawk-men, lancers, riflemen, musketmen, foot and mounted, large and strong or small and elusive.
My count of those who would be fit to serve is one thousand three hundred and seventeen, exceeding by three hundreds and more that required by treaty, and I was unable to visit many of the smaller bands particularly in the Choctaw and Cherokee Nations. I believe the supply of firearms should be increased, and that the Red Indian may ably fulfill many of the roles that would otherwise be left to the White man...