If they will not meet us on the open sea (a Trent TL)
- Thread starter Saphroneth
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- trent
20 Feb - 8 Mar 1863
Saphroneth
Banned
20 Feb
The Prussian Landwehr continues its normal training cycle involving the regular army.
Bismarck strongly advises that Frederick III aid the Russians in suppressing the Polish revolt (feeling that "all aid short of help" would earn a favour for the Prussian king to cash in later) but the monarch demurs.
The training itself is going at least somewhat more steadily than when the system was instituted. By now the Regulars are on their third session of joint training, and are starting to get used to it and develop useful shortcuts. They are somewhat dismissive of the new batches of Landwehr, and this provokes the German militiamen to improve faster.
23 Feb
The procurement of the Snider-Enfield is confirmed. All Enfield rifles of sufficient quality will be converted, and then new-construction rifles will enter production to increase the numbers.
It is expected that, once the industry has reached fruition, the conversion rate may be as high as 800 rifles per day; in the event, this is pessimistic.
27 Feb
News of the action involving the Spirit of Carolina reaches the United Kingdom. The Confederate ambassador (Mason) is somewhat startled by the attitude he encounters on the streets of London to the slave ship's capture - he had hoped it would be viewed negatively, but the opposite is happening.
In the afternoon, Mason has a meeting with Lord Palmerston at 97 Piccadilly. The redoubtable Prime Minister informs Mason that the boarding was according to the right of search - something which puzzles Mason as he cannot actually recall agreeing to the right of search - and that the subsequent seizure of a vessel breaking Confederate and British law was entirely above-board and legal.
1 Mar
Four thousand Enfield rifles (spares) are 'lost' on the way back from Canada. Coincidentally, a couple of weeks later the number of modern rifles in use in Poland increases noticeably.
3 Mar
Considerable anger in the Confederacy over the seizure of the Spirit of Carolina. In the Union the reaction is more one of mild confusion, with a strong undercurrent of schadenfreude.
HMS Royal Oak completes for service. She is effectively as capable a combatant as Warrior in all respects but speed; her steering is actually better protected than the slightly older ironclad, but her speed under steam is only 12.5 knots.
Oddly, she has a faster top speed under sail alone than under steam alone.
8 Mar
A clash takes place between a Russian infantry battalion and a few hundred Polish irregulars (known as huzaria after the famous Polish Hussars of the past). While these sorts of clashes have been taking place all over Congress Poland, this one is notable because it takes place several miles over the border with the Grand Duchy of Lithuania.
About seventy are left dead or seriously wounded, including a dozen huzaria after the Russian battalion gets close enough for Nessler volleys. This clash is more important, however, as it demonstrates the more-than-national dimensions the Polish revolt is taking.
Also on this date, the 1st Polish Foot is formed. This is a regular infantry regiment formed by the provisional Polish government using captured muskets - following the example of the Patriots and the Confederacy, the White faction at least would like to see a regular army formed to give their claim to independence legitimacy.
For now, no artillery can be sourced.
The Prussian Landwehr continues its normal training cycle involving the regular army.
Bismarck strongly advises that Frederick III aid the Russians in suppressing the Polish revolt (feeling that "all aid short of help" would earn a favour for the Prussian king to cash in later) but the monarch demurs.
The training itself is going at least somewhat more steadily than when the system was instituted. By now the Regulars are on their third session of joint training, and are starting to get used to it and develop useful shortcuts. They are somewhat dismissive of the new batches of Landwehr, and this provokes the German militiamen to improve faster.
23 Feb
The procurement of the Snider-Enfield is confirmed. All Enfield rifles of sufficient quality will be converted, and then new-construction rifles will enter production to increase the numbers.
It is expected that, once the industry has reached fruition, the conversion rate may be as high as 800 rifles per day; in the event, this is pessimistic.
27 Feb
News of the action involving the Spirit of Carolina reaches the United Kingdom. The Confederate ambassador (Mason) is somewhat startled by the attitude he encounters on the streets of London to the slave ship's capture - he had hoped it would be viewed negatively, but the opposite is happening.
In the afternoon, Mason has a meeting with Lord Palmerston at 97 Piccadilly. The redoubtable Prime Minister informs Mason that the boarding was according to the right of search - something which puzzles Mason as he cannot actually recall agreeing to the right of search - and that the subsequent seizure of a vessel breaking Confederate and British law was entirely above-board and legal.
1 Mar
Four thousand Enfield rifles (spares) are 'lost' on the way back from Canada. Coincidentally, a couple of weeks later the number of modern rifles in use in Poland increases noticeably.
3 Mar
Considerable anger in the Confederacy over the seizure of the Spirit of Carolina. In the Union the reaction is more one of mild confusion, with a strong undercurrent of schadenfreude.
HMS Royal Oak completes for service. She is effectively as capable a combatant as Warrior in all respects but speed; her steering is actually better protected than the slightly older ironclad, but her speed under steam is only 12.5 knots.
Oddly, she has a faster top speed under sail alone than under steam alone.
8 Mar
A clash takes place between a Russian infantry battalion and a few hundred Polish irregulars (known as huzaria after the famous Polish Hussars of the past). While these sorts of clashes have been taking place all over Congress Poland, this one is notable because it takes place several miles over the border with the Grand Duchy of Lithuania.
About seventy are left dead or seriously wounded, including a dozen huzaria after the Russian battalion gets close enough for Nessler volleys. This clash is more important, however, as it demonstrates the more-than-national dimensions the Polish revolt is taking.
Also on this date, the 1st Polish Foot is formed. This is a regular infantry regiment formed by the provisional Polish government using captured muskets - following the example of the Patriots and the Confederacy, the White faction at least would like to see a regular army formed to give their claim to independence legitimacy.
For now, no artillery can be sourced.
RodentRevolution
Banned
The other thing though is they never ask where the money for this army and navy is coming from? For one a Britain staring down the barrel the barrel of US guns might be a little inclined to dissuade its citizens from buying the bonds of US Government, states and companies for another it is expensive and it was a long while before the US economy as a whole was as big let alone bigger than that of the UK. Given the diversion of funds that process of overtake may well be delayed beyond the end of the century. The real danger for the US in such a scenario is it becomes like Tocqueville's other pick for world power Russia...always the promise never in the end the final performance.
The large army and navy of 1864 is going to be rubbish in 1874 due to the advances in guns and armour, the large army and navy of 1874 is going to be showing its age in 1884 and again in 1894 which means constant spending to keep pace but those guns and warships do not make nor transport goods generating further revenues and capital to feed into the economy...unlike the trains and factory machinery that the money could have been spent on if not absorbed by Federal bonds and Federal taxes.
Earlier in this thread I used the example of Germany after both World Wars as examples of 'let's get revenge regardless of the cost' compared with 'let's trade our way to prosperity'. It was rightly pointed out that Germany after 2WW had been invaded and completely defeated/destroyed, whereas TTL USA hasn't, which could weigh the scales towards revenge being more popular. It's also worth noting, IMHO, that TTL USA is solidly democratic and trade oriented already, unlike the best OTL examples of revanchism we have - France after the Franco-Prussian war and Germany after 1WW. I think that's what will make the difference: the USA is essentially a peaceful, democratic nation for which war is only a last resort.
Yes, by the end of the 19th century TTL USA will be well on the way to being a great power - but I think that'll be driven by economic growth through trade (which really means being at least cordial to the British Empire), rather than building up huge military forces - even if they were affordable. It probably will have fairly large forces to deter/face down/contain/deal with the CSA as well as provide some protection against a full blockade, but won't be trying to build up to confront the superpower of the day.
Just my opinion...feel free to disagree.
Yes, by the end of the 19th century TTL USA will be well on the way to being a great power - but I think that'll be driven by economic growth through trade (which really means being at least cordial to the British Empire), rather than building up huge military forces - even if they were affordable. It probably will have fairly large forces to deter/face down/contain/deal with the CSA as well as provide some protection against a full blockade, but won't be trying to build up to confront the superpower of the day.
Just my opinion...feel free to disagree.
I am interested in seeing how the American duo develop, though I must admit to being partial to a bit of improvement in the British Empire.
I can't help but think that the greatest benefit of this war for the British was as a proving ground for their technologies and tactics. I feel that their faster development/adoption of modern equipment and the decision of maintaining a larger standing army will have a domino effect throughout the Empire for a long time. And I cannot wait to see it.
Great TL
I can't help but think that the greatest benefit of this war for the British was as a proving ground for their technologies and tactics. I feel that their faster development/adoption of modern equipment and the decision of maintaining a larger standing army will have a domino effect throughout the Empire for a long time. And I cannot wait to see it.
Great TL
Since the UK has recognized the CSA independence and they had to go to war with the USA to get a right of search agreed, Palmerstone is 100% in the wrong (legally) here. Don't get me wrong - I can definitely see the UK doing this but there is no legal basis and it is almost guaranteed to provoke a reaction from the CSA. It would be popular in the UK to prevent the slave trade increasing but I can't see it being popular to go to war with erstwhile allies so soon.
Saphroneth
Banned
The standing army is a particularly significant social one, because OTL the British Army was well viewed at this point but became much less so post-Cardwell - simply because it went from a ten or twenty year job with a good pension to something which produced people of about age 25 with no marketable skills.
His position is as follows:
1) The US agreed to the right of search.
2) That was not after the independence of the Confederacy because the components of the treaty come into force at the same time.
3) Good enough, I used a similar argument on Brazil.
His position is as follows:
1) The US agreed to the right of search.
2) That was not after the independence of the Confederacy because the components of the treaty come into force at the same time.
3) Good enough, I used a similar argument on Brazil.
I was just searching the thread to see when the UK had recognised CSA
. He's a sneaky rascal that Palmerstone. I can't see that sticking in an international court but it's never going to be judged in an international court, is it. In the end though, Palmerstone did not use any legal argument with Brazil - he just used might = right.Saphroneth
Banned
Palmerstone is most dangerous when he is helping you.I was just searching the thread to see when the UK had recognised CSA
Watch out for gunboats in the reeds.
(The legal argument with Brazil was that they were a former Portugese colony, complete BS but he still used it. Here he's gotten together a vaguely-plausible interpretation which avoids blatant hypocrisy while still letting him finally stamp out the slave trade - almost literally his life's work.)
He actually got an agreement with Brazil too in the end - just that the Brazilians didn't enforce so he did.
I wonder if the forthcoming nastiness will be used to "zero the clock" viz ironclad production in the Americas. That would seem a fair and equitable (and very useful to the UK) position to make happen.
I wonder if the forthcoming nastiness will be used to "zero the clock" viz ironclad production in the Americas. That would seem a fair and equitable (and very useful to the UK) position to make happen.
The UK was never allied with the CSA. They were co-belligerents. The public will praise him stomping on slavers, should the CSA declare war, or provoke the UK enough.
Saphroneth
Banned
Indeed, the only reason Adm. Michell hasn't been censured is that an 8" shell (fired by one of the Confederate ships! Not that that's actually knowable...) cut down the masthead of his flagship and killed him. Fighting the same enemy as the Confederates is acceptable - directly helping them is something else.
Technically correct on the first part - although I doubt if the man in the street can tell the difference. Public opinion will be mostly against the CSA but there will be voices in Parliament against the war, either because of their commercial links to the CSA or their sincerely held views on the legal status of seizure in the first place.
If it's quick and not particularly dirty Palmerston will get away with it.
Saphroneth
Banned
You're assuming the fate of the Spirit is a casus belli.
It's not. It's an Incident.
Based on an act passed unilaterally by the British Parliament fourteen years after they'd recognised Brazil's independence from Portugal. This is positively above board by comparison.
As I read the timeline, though, Bythesea has jumped the gun in a major way. The treaty stipulated that its provisions would come into effect 'two months after the last of the contending powers has ratified it, or six months after the conclusion of the conference if two powers have ratified it and one has not - whichever is sooner':
Conference concludes 30 October - six months after is 30 April 1863
Confederates ratify 7 November
[Mason leaves the South c.12 November]
British ratify 17 November
[Mason arrives in Britain c. 28 November and presents his credentials at the beginning of December, marking British recognition of the Confederacy]
US ratifies 28 January - two months is 28 March 1863
Bythesea boards 15 February
This seems to be pretty ropy, legally speaking, for the British. When they recognised the Confederacy, they acknowledged they had the legal right to represent themselves to foreign powers- but they did so before the US had ratified the treaty. If Mason had been delayed in presenting his credentials, or the US had ratified earlier, or the anti-slavery portion had been a separate treaty which granted a mutual right of search to any power willing to accede to it (a beefed-up version of the 1841 Quintuple Treaty), things would have been different. As it is, I can't see a British court (as strongly anti-slavery as they are) upholding the decision even from a technical point of view. So either the war is going to be started by British pressure for the South to concede the right of search, or the war will be more or less indefensible and result in a vote of confidence which Palmerston will (presumably) only just scrape through on.
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Saphroneth
Banned
True that he jumped the gun.
The case is probably going to go to the courts, and Bythesea is likely to be officially reprimanded (not that that will help the crew of the Spirit, as slave trading is illegal in the Confederacy).
After that, however, Palmerston has several possible lines of argument. One of them is that recognition was conditional until the action of the treaty (and thus still is, in other words Mason is not an official ambassador yet but more of an attache), another is that as the treaty has not activated yet this ship was flying a flag to which it is not entitled, another yet is that until the action of the treaty this is officially a Northern ship and thus any protest should come from the Federal government rather than the Confederate one.
Absent any of those, it's possible that I may have to retcon things - largely because I'm not as good at this as Palmerston was and hence have bollixed up the order of action in a way he wouldn't.
The case is probably going to go to the courts, and Bythesea is likely to be officially reprimanded (not that that will help the crew of the Spirit, as slave trading is illegal in the Confederacy).
After that, however, Palmerston has several possible lines of argument. One of them is that recognition was conditional until the action of the treaty (and thus still is, in other words Mason is not an official ambassador yet but more of an attache), another is that as the treaty has not activated yet this ship was flying a flag to which it is not entitled, another yet is that until the action of the treaty this is officially a Northern ship and thus any protest should come from the Federal government rather than the Confederate one.
Absent any of those, it's possible that I may have to retcon things - largely because I'm not as good at this as Palmerston was and hence have bollixed up the order of action in a way he wouldn't.
I think Saphroneth's point (and it is a tortuous one if I'm right) is that the concession of the right to search and the division of the USA occur simultaneously, so that any agreement by the USA to allow the Right of Search in the treaty is binding on the CSA as well.
The effective date argument you make is also correct (I think)
The effective date argument you make is also correct (I think)
RodentRevolution
Banned
Are you assuming though that the Royal Navy won't have to back down here? Of course the thing is it will be an incident as the British definition of 'back down' might not be the Confederate one. More like
Britannia:"Ah terribly sorry and here is your ship, captain and crew back and some money by way of compensation payment."
Miss Dixie: "Excuse me but the compensation is a little low and what about the cargo, we want that back too."
Britannia: "Ah well see you cannot be a slave on British shores so we had to set them free and the compensation is quite fair all things considered" *mutter*
Miss Dixie: "Did you just call me a dirty rotten slaver whore?"
Britannia:"Who me?"
Miss Dixie: "You disgusting tyrannical pirate bitch!"
Britannia: "How rude"
The subsequent conversation goes down hill from there.
Saphroneth
Banned
Actually, thinking about this, one rather evil way this could go would be the courts ruling against Bythesea and his summary banishment to post captain somewhere (like the West Coast of America) while the British formally apologize for exercising the Right of Search before it officially activated.
The court takes long enough that by the time the decision is delivered the treaty's provisions have all activated anyway.
As for what happens to the Spirit, that's an interesting question because she was caught engaging in activities that are illegal in the Confederate States. So the UK might demand the punishment of the crew!
The court takes long enough that by the time the decision is delivered the treaty's provisions have all activated anyway.
As for what happens to the Spirit, that's an interesting question because she was caught engaging in activities that are illegal in the Confederate States. So the UK might demand the punishment of the crew!
Actually if the Spirit was flying the CSA ensign then they have no protection from being boarded at all - they are not USA flagged. They might as well have been flying the skull and crossed bones