If they will not meet us on the open sea (a Trent TL)

War is an extremely expensive thing. They may have seized enough gold to pay for the West Coast expenses perhaps including Hawaii. No gold is going to be shipped from mines once they know Britain controls S.F. Denying that gold getting to the Eastern U.S. is the major factor of the California campaign.
 

Mrstrategy

Banned
They do two thing by getting california main reason keep the gold from the USA and two they don't have to spend as much money for the war since the Americans are paying for it since it's American gold
 

Saphroneth

Banned
Use the gold to pay for the war ?
In a rather odd way, the war has largely paid for itself - not that it'll look that way TTL so much.
But if you combine:

1) The cotton actually being available to Britain, so no major economic slump in the cotton-weaving towns.
2) The income gained from blockade running prizes. (Not inconsiderable, and they caught most of them.)
3) The captured gold, which isn't massive but would pay for most of the extra shipbuilding and ship use. (The British could build ships pretty cheap compared to the Union.)
And
4) The big one, and an odd one - the lack of reduction in taxes (where OTL the income tax rate was reduced over the OTL civil War down from 9/240 to 4/240, TTL it's staying at 10/240 over the course of the war and possibly going up to the dizzy heights of 5%) means government revenue is plenty high enough.

War is an extremely expensive thing.


That's the thing about this war - on land the main extra expense has been paying for militia in Canada and militia to replace the regulars, which is at most the money required to pay 150,000 men for a year (their regulars are all OTL British army regulars in the relevant years, the sepoys are all OTL sepoys); at sea they've largely been using ships that were in reserve (or in service, or even in American waters - the ships used in the 'hot war' naval campaign of the early TL as opposed to the blockade were essentially all OTL ships actually at sea at the time) rather than building entirely new ones (the Union had to buy on the order of two to three million rifles and muskets, artillery in proportion, and one of the world's largest navies OTL in a tearing hurry as well as everything else, while the British already have almost everything they used here already in storage waiting.)

And the British are incomprehensibly wealthy at this time compared to any other nation in the world - Gladstone reduced income tax by more than half and he still thought the government was literally making too much money.
"...how is the spirit of expenditure to be exorcised? ... I seriously doubt whether it will ever give place to the old spirit of economy, as long as we have the income-tax"



They do two thing by getting california main reason keep the gold from the USA and two they don't have to spend as much money for the war since the Americans are paying for it since it's American gold

See above.
Also, the British don't want California - it's a long way off, inconvenient, and they have no historical support base or legitimate claim there (it was Spanish then Mexican, not British). It's also got about four hundred thousand people there, and while many of them may be of British extraction there's enough "Yankees" to make it so it's probably not worthwhile to annex.
 

Saphroneth

Banned
Something it's also worth thinking about. OTL roughly 750,000 people perished in the Civil War from bullet, shell and disease; TTL it can't be more than a third that number and will probably be more like 150,000 at the outside.
 
A interesting and valid point. In North America divided between Canada, basically the same land wise. The U.S.A. greatly reduced but a free society, and the Confederate States, probably not looking to change the status quo by encouraging immigrants. What will be the immigration rates to North America i.t.t.l. Reduced I would think, but still more to the current U.S. and perhaps to Canada. Not really a reason for immigrants to head to the Confederacy, no worthwhile free land that won't be take over by the current plantation aristocracy and manufacturing will be limited to what is required to try in a ineffective effort to match the U.S. The south will fall in time, what they see as their strengths is breeding more and more slaves. They will lose a demographic war in a number of generations if they can not increase white growth in the nation, the chance of them of encouraging white immigration will drop every year after year.
 

Skallagrim

Banned
Something it's also worth thinking about. OTL roughly 750,000 people perished in the Civil War from bullet, shell and disease; TTL it can't be more than a third that number and will probably be more like 150,000 at the outside.

This, and the other factors you mentioned, make the scenario seem positively rosy compared to OTL.

Then you remember the countless human beings still in chains, with no end to their wretched condition in sight.


How the finance of confederancy how much is their money worth vs USA money in europe

Certainly, the earlier end of the war and the general success and confidence of the Confederacy will mean that their money is actually doing quite well? The Union money, on the other hand... that must be suffering hyperinflation. The British Pound, one presumes, is considerably stronger than either.


A interesting and valid point. In North America divided between Canada, basically the same land wise. The U.S.A. greatly reduced but a free society, and the Confederate States, probably not looking to change the status quo by encouraging immigrants. What will be the immigration rates to North America i.t.t.l. Reduced I would think, but still more to the current U.S. and perhaps to Canada. Not really a reason for immigrants to head to the Confederacy, no worthwhile free land that won't be take over by the current plantation aristocracy and manufacturing will be limited to what is required to try in a ineffective effort to match the U.S. The south will fall in time, what they see as their strengths is breeding more and more slaves. They will lose a demographic war in a number of generations if they can not increase white growth in the nation, the chance of them of encouraging white immigration will drop every year after year.

That certainly makes for an interesting scenario. The percentage of whites growing smaller, the percentage of slaves increasing... A possible outcome of the whole slavery scenario in a Confederate victory TL has always been the Apartheid-era South Africa-like boycot. Possibly, in such a scenario, it could also end like Apartheid-era South Africa: with the white slaveholder position simply becoming impossible to maintain, and sudden, complete abolition of slavery and enfranchisement of the former slave population... if only to avoid the only alternative, which would be, ah... more like the end of Rhodesia.
 

Grimbald

Monthly Donor
Questions:

Any thoughts on the state borders, etc.?
  1. Does southern Missouri join Arkansas?
  2. Is Maryland still a state in either republic?
  3. Is Wheeling a part of Pennsylvania or Ohio?
  4. Do Delaware and Maryland (US) merge?
  5. Is Colorado admitted to the Confederacy immediately?
  6. Will the CSA try to use its military strength to take part of northern Mexico?
  7. What will the CSA do with Washington city?
 

Saphroneth

Banned
no worthwhile free land that won't be take over by the current plantation aristocracy

The Confederacy has half of California, all of Arizona, all of New Mexico and as-yet-unassigned bits of Arkansas and Texas. If the planter aristocracy takes all of that over then everyone's become a planter anyway, plantations weren't that big. (A few square km)

Then you remember the countless human beings still in chains, with no end to their wretched condition in sight.

It's an interesting and difficult question - how many years of slavery is a life worth. There probably is no simple answer.

Any ideas how much a dollar usa/confederancy is exchanged to pound

The prewar exchange rate was roughly $5 = £1. That's likely the "resting place" of both currencies, but the US dollar's not doing hot at the moment. The specie dollar's only a little affected, but the greenback is... not good.

Questions:

Any thoughts on the state borders, etc.?
  1. Does southern Missouri join Arkansas?
  2. Is Maryland still a state in either republic?
  3. Is Wheeling a part of Pennsylvania or Ohio?
  4. Do Delaware and Maryland (US) merge?
  5. Is Colorado admitted to the Confederacy immediately?
  6. Will the CSA try to use its military strength to take part of northern Mexico?
  7. What will the CSA do with Washington city?

1) Not sure, depends if the CSA want to count it as a state.
2) Confederacy yes, Union not sure (they might keep it as a rump to keep the count up)
3) Proably Ohio.
4) Again, depends if the US want to keep their score up.
5) Not immediately but pretty sharpish.
6) Probably not with the French in the country - they have their transcontinental railroad route.
7) They might well make it their capital!
 
Something it's also worth thinking about. OTL roughly 750,000 people perished in the Civil War from bullet, shell and disease; TTL it can't be more than a third that number and will probably be more like 150,000 at the outside.
So where are the people who didn't die TTL? I mean, which areas of the *USA/CSA will be slightly more populous than they were in OTL USA? The non-dead are probably mostly fighting-age men, who can than be used for industry, etc, so wherever they are they could be very important for the economy. Of course, if they're mostly evenly spread across the states, then it'll just be a very slight effect across the board.

Edit: sorry, I realise this is actually impossible to answer - it just gives you something else to feed in if you feel like it.
 
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Saphroneth

Banned
So where are the people who didn't die TTL? I mean, which areas of the *USA/CSA will be slightly more populous than they were in OTL USA? The non-dead are probably mostly fighting-age men, who can than be used for industry, etc, so wherever they are they could be very important for the economy. Of course, if they're mostly evenly spread across the states, then it'll just be a very slight effect across the board.
It's basically that the battles and diseases of 1863-5 and the second half of 1862 didn't happen. So whichever states suffered more casualties from the OTL Civil War are the ones which have more survivors.

The South's generally going to be more better off than the North compared to OTL as it suffered more heavily in proportion from the OTL Civil War.
 

Saphroneth

Banned
Draft Treaty of Havana

US-British section

The boundary between the United States of America and British North America shall be as follows.

An area of land sufficient to allow the construction of a railroad from Quebec City to Frederickton shall be purchased by the British Empire from the State of Maine. The rail line shall be constructed as far north as practical, and the land more than twenty miles south of the rail line may be repurchased by the State of Maine once ten years have elapsed.
The northern bank of the Black River from the mouth to the town of Great Bend and the area north of the line Great Bend - Fort Covingdon shall be ceded to provide a defensive buffer for the St. Lawrence.
In addition the islands of Drummond, Neebish, Sugar and Isle Royale in the Great Lakes will be ceded to the Canadian provinces.
The area adjoining Lake of the Woods north of the 49th Parallel shall be ceded to British North America.
The Rosario Strait shall be the boundary between the Washington Territory and British Columbia, and Point Roberts shall be part of British Columbia additionally.
The United States grants the Right of Search to the British Empire.

US-CS section

The United States recognizes the independence of the Confederate States.

The boundary between the United States of America and the Confederate States of America shall be as follows.

The area of the Delmarva Peninsula that is part of the State of Virginia shall be retained by the Confederate States.
The Chesapeake Bay and lower Susquehanna navigation shall be shared between the nations.
The eastern terminus of the border shall be at the intersection of the Mason-Dixon survey line and the Susquehanna river, and the border will then follow the Mason-Dixon line west to the Ohio River.
The border will be the Ohio River from this point to the confluence with the Mississippi, which will then be the border downriver until the 37th Parallel.
The border shall then continue westwards from this point to the 114th line of longitude, at which point the border will follow this line until the 36th Parallel, which shall be the border from here to the Pacific.

The United States will not pay an indemnity to the Confederate States but will continue to assume the portion of Federal debt which would be assigned pro rata to the seceding states. Individual state debt is a matter for the state in question, with debt held by or to the State of Maryland being handled by the Confederate State of Maryland and debt held by or to the States of California and Missouri being matters for the Union States by those names.


And then it trails off into legalese covering specific cases.



Incidentally, with these secessions the Union's state count is down to
Oregon
California
Kansas
Ohio
Missouri
Wisconsin
Iowa
Minnesota
Illinois
Michigan
Indiana
Pennsylvania
New York
New Hampshire
New Jersey
Maine
Vermont
Massachusets
Rhode Island
Connecticut
Delaware
(rump) Maryland
i.e. 22. This is actually a reversion to a flag star count they've never had before, which is interesting. (It might cause a more fine subdivision of some extant states.)

The Confederacy, meanwhile, has

Maryland
Virginia
North Carolina
South Carolina
Georgia
Florida
Mississippi
Alabama
Tennessee
Kentucky
Louisiana
Arkansas
Texas
Colorado
Arizona
Indian Territory (not a state)
Missouri Strip (possibly to become part of Arkansas)
and whatever they do with the northern half of New Mexico Territory that they also got hold of

Giving them fifteen stars for sure and three possibles.
Which means they might just say seventeen stars and call it done, then change what it takes to get a star as the CSA evolves.
 
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Skallagrim

Banned
Incidentally, with these secessions the Union's state count is down to
Oregon
California
Kansas
Ohio
Missouri
Wisconsin
Iowa
Minnesota
Illinois
Michigan
Indiana
Pennsylvania
New York
New Hampshire
New Jersey
Maine
Vermont
Massachusets
Rhode Island
Connecticut
Delaware
(rump) Maryland
i.e. 22. This is actually a reversion to a flag star count they've never had before, which is interesting. (It might cause a more fine subdivision of some extant states.)

One suspects rump Maryland would be merged with Delaware.


The Confederacy, meanwhile, has

Maryland
Virginia
North Carolina
South Carolina
Georgia
Florida
Mississippi
Alabama
Tennessee
Kentucky
Louisiana
Arkansas
Texas
Colorado
Arizona
Indian Territory (not a state)
Missouri Strip (possibly to become part of Arkansas)
and whatever they do with the northern half of New Mexico Territory that they also got hold of

Giving them fifteen stars for sure and three possibles.
Which means they might just say seventeen stars and call it done, then change what it takes to get a star as the CSA evolves.

Colorado, being separated from an existing US state, would certainly demand statehood in the CSA at once. And probably be granted it. Support for the CSA is presumably considerable there, but it's far away and you don't want to insult the inhabitants by reverting them to mere "territorials". They are supposed to be proud, Confederate citizens!

Confederate Arizona is in no way ready for statehood, so that's a territory. So is the northern half of former New Mexico Territory, which will presumably be called... New Mexico Territory.

The Missouri Strip will almost certainly be integrated with Arkansas.

Indian Territory is not a state... and may never become one. If the hints of a "pro-Indian" attitude persist, it may well become a semi-autonomous "Indian homeland" within the CSA.

In any case, that would make for fourteen states, and three territories.
 

Saphroneth

Banned
The reason why I say the Confederacy would be a bit flexible on what counts as a star is because they have a slightly inconvenient flag to do the "add stars as needed" thing like the US does.
But yes. Colorado State gets in almost instantly.

Hm. It occurs to me that TTL Maryland will be by far the smallest CS state, with the next smallest being South Carolina at maybe five times the size.
 
29 October - 3 November 1862

Saphroneth

Banned
29 October

By now highly exasperated with a treaty negotiation that has taken two and a half months and kept him from helping with a major constitutional crisis at home, the Prussian representative sits down with the Union and Confederate representatives (in separate meetings) to point out a few details of politics.

Among his key arguments for the Union are that it would be in the interest of the Union to make the British feel secure about Canada as this way they will be inclined to keep talking for longer instead of jumping straight to war, and that the United States could earn considerable clout with the British (and make the British opinion of the Confederacy harden) by adopting compensated emancipation shortly after the peace - something that would be cheap, as almost the entirety of the Union's slaves would be in the ceded areas, and something Seward happens to be ready to hear.
To the Confederacy, on the other hand, he stresses that they should allow the Union to choose between two or three options for what area of land to retain after the peace treaty (including the upper Delmarva) and not get too greedy and try to take everything. He also makes the point that being in the good terms of the British is essential for the newly formed nation.


30 October

Bismarck's discussions have had a salutatory effect on the speed of the proceedings, and the remaining border agreements start to be resolved with considerable speed. A treaty is taking shape by the evening, though questions of ratification (for example, whether the State of Missouri, the State of Maine, the State of Michigan, the State of New York and the States of Maryland need to ratify the treaty in addition to the two national governments of the Americas) do crop up.

The treaty as sent for ratification is roughly as follows.



US-British section

The boundary between the United States of America and British North America shall be as follows.

An area of land sufficient to allow the construction of a railroad from Quebec City to Frederickton shall be purchased by the British Empire from the State of Maine. The rail line shall be constructed as far north as practical, and the land more than twenty miles south of the rail line may be repurchased by the State of Maine once ten years have elapsed.
The northern bank of the Black River from the mouth to the town of Great Bend and the area north of the line Great Bend - Fort Covingdon shall be ceded to provide a defensive buffer for the St. Lawrence.
In addition the islands of Drummond, Neebish, Sugar and Isle Royale in the Great Lakes will be ceded to the Canadian provinces.
The area adjoining Lake of the Woods north of the 49th Parallel shall be ceded to British North America.
The Rosario Strait shall be the boundary between the Washington Territory and British Columbia, and Point Roberts shall be part of British Columbia additionally.
The United States grants the Right of Search to the British Empire.

US-CS section

The United States recognizes the independence of the Confederate States.

The boundary between the United States of America and the Confederate States of America shall be as follows.

The area of the Delmarva Peninsula that is part of the State of Virginia shall be retained by the Confederate States.
The Chesapeake Bay and lower Susquehanna navigation shall be shared between the nations.
The eastern terminus of the border shall be at the intersection of the Mason-Dixon survey line and the Susquehanna river, and the border will then follow the Mason-Dixon line west to the Ohio River.
The border will be the Ohio River from this point to the confluence with the Mississippi, which will then be the border downriver until the 37th Parallel.
The border shall then continue westwards from this point to the 114th line of longitude, at which point the border will follow this line until the 36th Parallel, which shall be the border from here to the Pacific.

The United States will not pay an indemnity to the Confederate States but will continue to assume the portion of Federal debt which would be assigned pro rata to the seceding states. Individual state debt is a matter for the state in question, with debt held by or to the State of Maryland being handled by the Confederate State of Maryland and debt held by or to the States of California and Missouri being matters for the Union States by those names.



Considerable additional text considers specific cases, and the document also contains a clarification of the rules on contraband and specifies that outgoing non-war commercial goods are explicitly not contraband (this clarification was added due to the controversy of cotton seizures as compared to the continuing Union grain export - one of the Russians notes grimly that had the British blocked the grain export as the Union did the cotton export, then the Union's government would likely have already collapsed for want of revenue.

The date of activation of the treaty provisions is specified as being two months after the last of the contending powers has ratified it, or six months after the conclusion of the conference if two powers have ratified it and one has not - whichever is sooner.



3 November
The text of the Treaty of Havana arrives in Richmond and in Washington via the telegraph (in the latter case passing through the Confederacy, in code). It leaks almost immediately, and leads to wild jubilation in the Confederate capital and considerable disquiet in the Union capital (which will now have to move, as it will be surrounded entirely by Confederate territory!)
Amid the political chaos, Lincoln has some calculations done on the cost of the compensated emancipation Seward recommends.

Delaware contains roughly 1,200 slaves, the section of Maryland which is to be retained by the Union about 15,000, and Missouri - largest remaining slave state in the Union - close to 70,000. These numbers are approximate, and drop a little below this once population movements have taken place, but the total of ~85,000 is used to calculate the required amount of cash - the sum of Six Millions of Dollars comes to about $70 per slave, which is high enough to be plausible but low enough to annoy.
Since post-treaty the United States would consist of eighteen free states and three slave, however, the prospect of a constitutional amendment to make slavery illegal is a very real possibility (though the motive would be as much to retain farmland for whites as anything - the less savoury side of the Free Soil movement is that they would rather blacks be somewhere else).
 
5-8 November 1862

Saphroneth

Banned
5 November

The Louisiana Native Guard hold a target practice session, assisted by a former sergeant from the 1st West India Regiment. There is a great deal of shouting taking place, as the Louisiana NG have not actually been in combat before and are primarily a regiment of the well-off, but they do all have quite good rifles and some progress is made.

Bafflement is reported among the Confederate spectators, who are not sure how to take the sight of a black man shouting at other black men about the proper way to use a rifle. (The Sergeant also outshoots all five of the spectators who wish to try their hand, which does not help the cognitive dissonance.)


7 November

The distinctly confused midterm elections in the United States (especially Maryland and Missouri) draw to a close. They had been sometimes mixed up with the local elections the Confederacy is already trying to hold in the to-be-ceded territories, resulting in several days of delay before the announcement of the final result.
The new composition of the US House and Senate is already becoming clear, however - the Democratic Party has had a good election, and will control the House when the swearing-in happens in early March, though the Senate remains Republican controlled.

The Confederate Congress formally ratifies the Treaty of Havana in a special session intended to pressurize the Union, as does the Confederate State of Maryland. Flag design committees halt and restart work, this time accounting for the soon-to-be-accepted State of Colorado (which would bring the total number of stars to fourteen, ironically a number the Stars and Bars handles much better than the Battle Flag which had been gaining popular acclaim).


8 November
Capital Relocation Committee reports again to Congress, this time making clear that the time window is known at no greater than six months and that the decision should be made as soon as possible.
This becomes somewhat sidetracked into a question of delay, with one Democratic congressman pointing out that if the House delays ratification they will be leaving the next congress with a six-month problem and one month to sort it out.


EDIT made: making clear the CSA congress was in a special session to ratify the treaty.
 
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