If they will not meet us on the open sea (a Trent TL)

[Saphroneth]

4 October

News arrives in Britain of the Namagumi incident, where British nationals were wounded (and in one case killed) by a samurai in Satsuma domain.
The general reaction is one of outrage (the assault was clearly illegal) and preparations begin to dispatch one of the China Station ships to officially remonstrate with the Daimyo (this has not been done automatically as the China Station is drawn down due to the ongoing war with the Union).
Something which is not immediately apparent is that the violence is part of the ongoing growth of a split between the Shogunate and the Emperor - the latter has been taking an active role in state affairs, something that is not normal for the current Japanese system, and encouraging the Sonnou Joui sentiment (venerate the Emperor, expel the Barbarians) - though more as a contrast to the Shogunate's policy than anything else.


6 October
A heavy storm strikes the US east coast. Several ships are damaged, and the liner Sans Pareil is driven onto a reef in spite of the best efforts of her crew.
Two other ships are also heavily damaged, the Barrosa and the gunboat Snapper (the Barrosa being badly damaged for the second time this year) and numerous others sustain more minor damage.

7th October
HMS Caledonia is launched. The Royal Navy now has more armoured frigates fitting out than in service (and Armstrong is busily dividing his time between the improved breech for his RBL guns and a stopgap Palliser-firing RML gun to arm them!)

 

[diestormlie]

Japan, Japan, Japan... Pissing off the Already Mobilised for Naval Warfare and about-to-be-down-with-current-war Naval Great/Superpower is not going to end well for you!

Not that (presumably) the random Samurai is entirely aware of the geopolitical consequences of using foreigners to see how sharp his Katana is.

 

[Saphroneth]

This crisis is actually all OTL. Just.. still happening.

 

[diestormlie]

I don't doubt it. Japan being in a state of hysteria seems like the norm between the end of the Edo Period and the 1945.

 

[Saphroneth]

They were actually sane between about 1870 and 1923.

 

[diestormlie]

Albeit Expansionist, Imperialist and Racist, but, hey, that was normal! All the cool kids are doing it!

I wonder if the Japanese State will end up structured differently out the other end of the restoration. I mean, Japan was a Quasi literal police state, with the Local Police essentially running many local government functions OTL.

 

[Saphroneth]

I understand that OTL their inspiration was pretty much the Prussian constitutionalism - that is, the one which was "looked like" democracy with considerable military control.
Thing is... that doesn't really exist to copy TTL, or at any rate not in anything like the same form. There's just been a very major clash between conservatism and liberalism in Prussia, and the conservatism was the one which broke TTL.

 

[diestormlie]

IIRC, The Japan looked at the world, and decided on the British Navy, the French Army and the Prussian Government. Then the Franco-Prussian War happened and the Japanese decided they wanted the Prussian Army instead.

Here we are, from Wikipedia's page on the Meiji Constitution:

"On October 21, 1881, Itō Hirobumi was appointed to chair a government bureau to research various forms of constitutional government, and in 1882, Itō led an overseas mission to observe and study various systems first-hand. The United States Constitution was rejected as "too liberal". The French and Spanish models were rejected as tending toward despotism. The Reichstag and legal structures of the German Empire, particularly that of Prussia, proved to be of the most interest to the Constitutional Study Mission. Influence was also drawn from the British Westminster system, although it was considered as being unwieldy and granting too much power to Parliament."

"He also rejected some notions as unfit for Japan, as they stemmed from European constitutional practice and Christianity. He therefore added references to the kokutai or "national polity" as the justification of the emperor's authority through his divine descent and the unbroken line of emperors, and the unique relationship between subject and sovereign."

Might well see more British Influence if the Prusso-Germans aren't so military successful/prestigious.

 

[Saphroneth]

Oh, here's that mid-conference map. The shoddily "flood filled" bits are the areas which people disagree about, solid black lines are essentially confirmed.

The line in Maryland in particular is somewhat approx - it could angle further towards the coast.

ED:
And balls, I accidentally missed out the St Lawrence cession. Should be in there now.

 

[The Gunslinger]

Oh, here's that mid-conference map. The shoddily "flood filled" bits are the areas which people disagree about, solid black lines are essentially confirmed.

The line in Maryland in particular is somewhat approx - it could angle further towards the coast.View attachment 289239

ED:
And balls, I accidentally missed out the St Lawrence cession. Should be in there now.

I still think Britain is likely to push for the shore of Superior and the Red River over the UP of Michigan simply because they have a far better claim to them, and because there aren't as many Americans there. but it's your TL so I'll be quiet now.

 

[Saphroneth]

I still think Britain is likely to push for the shore of Superior and the Red River over the UP of Michigan simply because they have a far better claim to them, and because there aren't as many Americans there. but it's your TL so I'll be quiet now.

The Upper Peninsula is part of the shore of Superior.

Spoiler

Besides which, the British claims are wildly past what they're actually going to want. They're playing out their hand as slowly as they feel appropriate, but the locked-in territorial gains (i.e. buffer for the St. Lawrence, San Juan Islands) are actually the main things they wanted in the first place.
They might pick up a few minor islands in the Lakes besides that, but the really important thing they want is the Right of Search - and that's not even aimed at the Union at all.
For similar reasons, they arguably want to make sure the Union has so few slave states in it that it'll voluntarily give up slavery ASAP.

 

[diestormlie]

Palmerston's after Geopolitical sculpting over pure land-grabbing.

 

[Skallagrim]

Question: why aren't the Confederates pushing for that same parallel as a border all the way to the Pacific? They can reasonably get away with it, and it just looks so much more tidy.

But more seriously... how much more can the Union expect to drag out of the fire at this point? Both the British and the Confederates have given up their more unrealistic claims. At this juncture, I can see the CSA negotiators just pushing a map across the table, coloured in like so...

...and thus excluding southwestern Kentucky and the southernmost part of the Delmarva peninsula from the debate, pointing out that there are then three areas still in dispute. At which point they simply say: "pick one, whichever you like best. We'll keep the other two, and then we'll be done here."

I'm fairly confident the Union would want the Delmarva in that case, just for strategic purposes. They can't allow the CSA to have it. They'll probably demand that they'll get to keep the northernmost point of West Virginia as well (the point jutting out north of the Mason-Dixon line), if only to somewhat limit the danger directly posed to Pittsburgh in case of future hostilities. (The CSA would likely agree to that.)

 

[Saphroneth]

You mean Pacific, not Atlantic.

Among the possible resolutions I've come up with are:

1) CSA get Delmarva. Union get some of NW Virginia. CSA get the area south of the 34th Parallel in the Pacific Coast area.
2) CSA get their northern claims but no Pacific outlet.
3) CSA do not get Delmarva or the section north of the Mason Dixon Line but get the 37th Parallel all the way to the Pacific.

 

[edvardas]

Besides the UP they should claim the area west of lake superior up to about Lake of the Woods. It is a lot easier to build a railroad south of the lake than north of it. A rail line in the UP would not do much good, if is had to stop at Wisconsin'

 

[Skallagrim]

You mean Pacific, not Atlantic.

Among the possible resolutions I've come up with are:

1) CSA get Delmarva. Union get some of NW Virginia. CSA get the area south of the 34th Parallel in the Pacific Coast area.
2) CSA get their northern claims but no Pacific outlet.
3) CSA do not get Delmarva or the section north of the Mason Dixon Line but get the 37th Parallel all the way to the Pacific.

Pacific, of course. How silly of me. I'll edit that right away.

As for those potential resolutions... they all seem reasonable, considering the circumstances. The CSA would probably prefer the first option, but that would also require the most negotiating. Given the choice between options two and three, I think both USA and CSA would prefer option three. (Because the CSA wants southern California for economic and geopolitical reasons - namely to become a transcontinental power - and because the USA wants the CSA to not possess the Delmarva peninsula.)

 

[Saphroneth]

That of course leads to a further question - where's the US likely to relocate their capital?
DC's going to be completely impossible as a capital (it would be literally surrounded by Confederacy except in (1) and in (1) they'd have a very thin path of control back to the rest of the Union) but that means the Union has to decide if it wants another "District" situation or to just make a big city like Philadelphia or NY the capital.

That also brings up what may be an interesting irony - if the Union does make another District of Columbia and rename the city in it Washington, and if the Confederacy decides that Washington is their capital now, then you could well have Washington DC vs. Washington DC.

 

[Skallagrim]

Even Philadelphia is rather close to the border. New York is really the obvious choice. Of course, for the same reason, the CSA is unlikely to make Washington their capital, either. Not unless/until considerable time has passed, relations have become more normalised, and a new war is unlikely.

 

[Saphroneth]

Hmmm... I'm now wondering if the Delmarva might end up being split. Possession of it for either side lets them have a lot of control over a water area the other would quite like to use (Chesapeake bay or Delaware river).

Of course, if the CSA is seriously able to worry about control of the Chesapeake then they're already frankly winning the jackpot.

As for what to do next...

Spoiler

I'm probably going to focus a bit in on military developments for the next few weeks of in-universe time, including one idea I had, a bill mandating that the USA keep available at least 300,000 (500,000? 700,000?) modern firearms at all times - something which would require them, for example, to buy or manufacture muzzle loading rifles and then promptly require them to replace or convert the lot.
Other things to include - Confederate orders of Krupp guns, Landwehr development in Prussia, Russian stuff, the Snider, RN orders for specialized mine sweeping gunvessels, and the Emperor of Mexico.
Also a peace demonstration in NYC.

 

[Grinner]

What about Chicago as new Union capital? It was growing rapidly at the time, and is in a nice central location for the remaining land area.