Just thought of this, with the loss of southern cotton, would hemp not take its place as the main crop for the textile mills? Or Flax?
If they will not meet us on the open sea (a Trent TL)
- Thread starter Saphroneth
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Saphroneth
Banned
I think the likelihood is that they'll just buy cotton anyway. All the existing textile mills are built to use cotton, and while the price may rise it's still going to be massive business - just that the CSA will get a cut of the take.
When the Cotton Famine set in in the UK, the alternative was Surat cotton, basically - and the fact that 'surat' was British slang for 'second class' in the 1860s tells you how likely that is to work.
Saphroneth
Banned
Oh, I had one idea for a possible outcome of the negotiations:
California - stays with the Union.
But the Confederacy do a deal with Napoleon III, and basically invade NW Mexico and wipe out the Republican Mexican strongholds there. In return they get to annex enough of Mexico for their transcontinental railroad, and they pay money for the territory.
But the Confederacy do a deal with Napoleon III, and basically invade NW Mexico and wipe out the Republican Mexican strongholds there. In return they get to annex enough of Mexico for their transcontinental railroad, and they pay money for the territory.
Ryan
Donor
isn't that a fast track way of destroying any and all legitimacy that the French Mexican regime has?
Saphroneth
Banned
Depends on if it actually gets out that this is something being done. I'm also not sure if it fits with the personalities of the rulers - though if Maximilien comes in after the deal's done he might escape some or all of the fallout.
If the Confederacy grabs enough of Mexico it might make sense for France in the long run to ditch Mexico altogether. France gets the mineral resources via the Confederacy and doesn't have to occupy Mexico. Mexico is going to be royally choked though for obvious reasons.
For some reason I don't see the CSA getting California. I always picture it, best case scenario, as a local great power, but never a continent-wide nation.
25 July - 1 August 1862
Saphroneth
Banned
25 July
McClellan and Hooker get into an argument about rifle practice. Hooker emphasizes the Congressional ban on the use of gunpowder for practice, to which McClellan replies that an unpracticed army will be easily destroyed by the Confederates if a battle develops upon breakdown of the peace.
Both men have an excellent point; neither is wrong. The right answer is elusive. (The best course of action would probably be to employ a combination of range estimation classes - which can benefit troops without a shot being fired - with snapping practice using percussion caps. This solution is not discovered, and even this involves using part of a potentially limited supply of percussion caps.)
27 July
The Vanderbilt takes a British prize off Crete. She ducks into a small cove on Lesbos and endeavours to be as unnoticeable as possible while she recoals from the prize.
30 July
The request for a mediator arrives in Prussia.
The Prussian King - already embroiled in serious problems from a combination of parliamentary deadlock, elevated grain prices from the trade disruption of the Trent War and sheer bull-headedness - sends off the first experienced negotiator to meet his eye, the recently-returned ambassador to France.
1 August
Havana belatedly discovers it will be hosting a major peace conference. Much disruption occurs in the capital of Spanish Cuba, including the defences being made to look as impressive as possible and more than a few people being bumped out of the grandest hotels.
The Superb undocks, having completed conversion into the biggest bomb ship in the world. Her rigging is distinctly unusual, with chains rather than the normal lines and even an experimental iron-sheathed main mast - however, it is expected that her engine will provide most of her manoeuverability in theatre.
She also sports a few experimental tricks, notably four anchors (one on each quarter) and a steam engine dedicated to lifting the enormous one-ton mortar shells from the magazine.
She is also very lightly armed for a ship her size apart from the mammoth mortar - sporting primarily a dozen 40-lber Armstrong guns on her gundeck.
McClellan and Hooker get into an argument about rifle practice. Hooker emphasizes the Congressional ban on the use of gunpowder for practice, to which McClellan replies that an unpracticed army will be easily destroyed by the Confederates if a battle develops upon breakdown of the peace.
Both men have an excellent point; neither is wrong. The right answer is elusive. (The best course of action would probably be to employ a combination of range estimation classes - which can benefit troops without a shot being fired - with snapping practice using percussion caps. This solution is not discovered, and even this involves using part of a potentially limited supply of percussion caps.)
27 July
The Vanderbilt takes a British prize off Crete. She ducks into a small cove on Lesbos and endeavours to be as unnoticeable as possible while she recoals from the prize.
30 July
The request for a mediator arrives in Prussia.
The Prussian King - already embroiled in serious problems from a combination of parliamentary deadlock, elevated grain prices from the trade disruption of the Trent War and sheer bull-headedness - sends off the first experienced negotiator to meet his eye, the recently-returned ambassador to France.
1 August
Havana belatedly discovers it will be hosting a major peace conference. Much disruption occurs in the capital of Spanish Cuba, including the defences being made to look as impressive as possible and more than a few people being bumped out of the grandest hotels.
The Superb undocks, having completed conversion into the biggest bomb ship in the world. Her rigging is distinctly unusual, with chains rather than the normal lines and even an experimental iron-sheathed main mast - however, it is expected that her engine will provide most of her manoeuverability in theatre.
She also sports a few experimental tricks, notably four anchors (one on each quarter) and a steam engine dedicated to lifting the enormous one-ton mortar shells from the magazine.
She is also very lightly armed for a ship her size apart from the mammoth mortar - sporting primarily a dozen 40-lber Armstrong guns on her gundeck.
Offering territory to the CSA without a major concession in return is just not going to happen. Nappy III would have wanted a substantial cash bonus to allow that (Sonora was on his hit list because of how valuable the silver mines were) and Maximillian had signed the Treaty of Miramar vowing he would not give away any territory of Mexico (though he apparently de facto broke this by offering Sonora as a colony to the French in 1866 in exchange for further credit and soldiers). Just letting the CSA waltz in and take it would be a big problem for both men.
I'm skeptical the CSA could even take it if they wanted it.
Saphroneth
Banned
Fair enough, and thanks for the analysis. Though technically the Treaty of Miramar isn't for another couple of years, I agree that it's probably not a sensible course of action to show.
Incidentally, anyone spotted the secret butterfly?
Incidentally, anyone spotted the secret butterfly?
I'm assuming it's the Prussian ambassador thing, but I don't know who the Prussian ambassador to France was in this period, and some quick searching hasn't shown up an answer.
Saphroneth
Banned
You're correct about it being the ambassador thing.
In mid-late 1862 the Prussian ambassador to France was - briefly - Otto von Bismarck.
Ah, I see.
So he's mediating a peace conference rather than being made Minister-President of Prussia. Is this going to merely delay his rise to power, or prevent it entirely? And how is that going to re-shape German unification? Ooh, Saph, you naughty naughty writer you, this could get huge.
Saphroneth
Banned
The aforementioned crisis from the update reached a head OTL in September, with perhaps the only resolution possible that didn't involve the abdication of the King.
Yep, that's him.
Poor man. A taste for reshaping the politics of a continent, and he's stuck mediating.
5-10 August 1862
Saphroneth
Banned
5 August
Lancaster docks in Kagoshima for coal. While there she encounters the HMS Odin, a paddle frigate of about the same size, and is preparing for battle when she spots the Odin flying a flag of truce.
Odin, being on the China Station, got the news of the ceasefire over a week ago (due to the excellent telegraph communications between London and India), and her captain informs the captain of Lancaster that the war has become a cease-fire.
She recommends that Lancaster operate out of a Royal Navy base for the next few months, and that in the event of a resumption of war Lancaster will be given forty-eight hours to leave port before the British ships pursue her. This is accepted, with some further caveats and details relating to the specific situation.
7 August
The ambassadors and delegations begin to assemble in Havana. The Prussian representative at least is not expected for another several days, so the early discussions are largely theoretical -those in charge of the Confederate delegation seeking to get some interest from the French ambassadors regarding future trade deals, mostly without any particular success.
9 August
In Mexico, Fort Loreto at Puebla is captured. The tenacious resistance of the garrison - necessitating de Lorencz bringing up his heaviest artillery in order to batter the walls, and delaying the capture of the whole area by several weeks even after his break-in to the city - has allowed the Mexican Republican government to evacuate, heading north and west. Despite this, the Siege of Puebla is over with a French victory.
de Lorencz does not push his forces northwest in pursuit of the Mexican government, as his men have been tired by the siege. His plan instead is to rest for a few days, allowing his logistics to consolidate, and then take Mexico City later in the month.
10 August
The Charleston goes in for conversion, with some thorough plans being put into action at Gosport.
A minor riot takes place in Baltimore, demanding an end to the Union occupation and for the city (along with Maryland) to join the Confederacy. This makes Congress nervous to say the least.
Lancaster docks in Kagoshima for coal. While there she encounters the HMS Odin, a paddle frigate of about the same size, and is preparing for battle when she spots the Odin flying a flag of truce.
Odin, being on the China Station, got the news of the ceasefire over a week ago (due to the excellent telegraph communications between London and India), and her captain informs the captain of Lancaster that the war has become a cease-fire.
She recommends that Lancaster operate out of a Royal Navy base for the next few months, and that in the event of a resumption of war Lancaster will be given forty-eight hours to leave port before the British ships pursue her. This is accepted, with some further caveats and details relating to the specific situation.
7 August
The ambassadors and delegations begin to assemble in Havana. The Prussian representative at least is not expected for another several days, so the early discussions are largely theoretical -those in charge of the Confederate delegation seeking to get some interest from the French ambassadors regarding future trade deals, mostly without any particular success.
9 August
In Mexico, Fort Loreto at Puebla is captured. The tenacious resistance of the garrison - necessitating de Lorencz bringing up his heaviest artillery in order to batter the walls, and delaying the capture of the whole area by several weeks even after his break-in to the city - has allowed the Mexican Republican government to evacuate, heading north and west. Despite this, the Siege of Puebla is over with a French victory.
de Lorencz does not push his forces northwest in pursuit of the Mexican government, as his men have been tired by the siege. His plan instead is to rest for a few days, allowing his logistics to consolidate, and then take Mexico City later in the month.
10 August
The Charleston goes in for conversion, with some thorough plans being put into action at Gosport.
A minor riot takes place in Baltimore, demanding an end to the Union occupation and for the city (along with Maryland) to join the Confederacy. This makes Congress nervous to say the least.
Speaking on this, I wonder what will happen to Japan in this Timeline. Maybe a Philippines purchase or a Japanese-Spanish war? The Geopolitics are them are shifting dramatically. Well, that all depend on the Meiji Restoration going as OTL, which... Goddamnit, I can't remember when it happened! Has it happened? Will it happen? So many pretty butterflies!
Uh oh.
Also! Really cracking out the content Sappy! It makes me very happy!
Saphroneth
Banned
Meiji has not happened yet.
Something along the lines of the Boshin War is almost certainly going to take place, but who wins is not certain - you could quite easily get a complex system where Shogun and Emperor both still exist and have significant power.
Yeah - sadly Maryland's occupation (or garrisoning?) by Union forces OTL was not one designed to avoid resentment, and after the dramatic Confederate victories and the ceasefire, the residents of Baltimore are unlikely to just accept waiting most of another year.
