If they will not meet us on the open sea (a Trent TL)

Saphroneth

Banned
@Saphroneth: what's your feeling about what the UK actually wants now? They entered the war basically wanting an apology. The list of demands you gave above (which seem to be accepted by the USA) are quite a bit above that. I assume the reasoning for this is that (1) the UK's now had to fight a war so wants a bit more than initially, (2) the USA is inclined to just agree to anything which isn't too outrageous, and (3) the UK is taking the chance to set-up a balance of power in NA where no one country will be the hegemon.
Most of the things above are OTL points of conflict, many of them still in dispute. The other one (St Lawrence) is basically to protect the British reinforcement route into the Great Lakes.

I think the best way to put it is that the British want to demonstrate to the Union and the world that British commerce is sacrosanct, and to Canada and the Empire that they won't leave a component of Empire "out to dry".
 
Last edited:
"Yeah.....
They might be Johnie Foreigners.......
But their OUR Johnie Foreigners......
So hands off or you'll get a bloody nose! "

.......A quote from Queen Victoria at the time
 
Sorry, just had to point this one out. What I mean is that there was clearly a Virginia government which was in the majority of the state, and that the US basically followed a legal dodge to get the split to take place.
While it does make legal sense, it also sets a precedent which means the US couldn't possibly object to the shadow Confederate governments of Maryland, Delaware, Kentucky, Missouri or Kansas!
It may be a legal dodge, but it gets to a more fundamental point of the legal status of the rebelling states. IOTL, two post-war Supreme Court rulings set out what the legal status of the secedded states was before the establishment of military governments by the Union. The first, Texas v. White, concerned the sale of United States Treasury bonds by the rebel government in Texas. The important part of the Court's ruling was that Texas' secession had no legal basis and, as such, the state government which passed the ordinance of secession voided its own existence and left the state of Texas without a legitimate government. The state itself, however, remained a part of the Union for the duration, simply one whose government was illegitimate and in a state of rebellion and as such one without electoral or congressional representation. The rights of the state itself and of the people as US citizens however, remained intact. Basically, a state can only secede with the consent of the other states (through Congress), and any such act without that consent is a rebellion which the United States is compelled to put down. Think of it like this: A state (as distinct from the state government) cannot unilaterally secede, so any state government which does puts itself in rebellion and illegitimates its claim to speak for the state. Some states, like Virginia, constituted loyal Unionist governments which exercised the rights of the state as a whole. Other, like Texas, did not. In both cases the issue is of the legitimate state government, not of the state itself.

In Williams v. Bruffy, the Court held that establishment of an independent country is dependent on success. If the government trying to establish itself as independent succeeds, then it is legitimate, as are all its acts from its incorporation. If it fails, then all of its acts are invalid. The relevant portion of the opinion is:

"The validity of its acts, both against the parent state and the citizens or subjects thereof, depends entirely upon its ultimate success; if it fail to establish itself permanently, all such acts perish with it; if it succeed and become recognized, its acts from the commencement of its existence are upheld as those of an independent nation."

In my opinion, the view of Buffy, is more importan for the post-war situation. The United States could, in this case will, recognize the independence of the Confederacy and the secession of its component states. Doing so does not concede any acknowledgement of their legitimacy before the signing of the treaty, as until recognition by the United States and the remaining states they are in rebellion. In this case, the signing of the treaty would be held to constitute the required legal consent to secession. Practically of course the rebellion is legitimate because it has suceeded in establishing itself as an independent entity, but there still needs to be a legal framework for the United States to recognize the secession as part of the peace treaty. After all, recognizing the secession of the Southern states is the part of the treaty that actually ends the war and gives independence to the South. The Confederacy is really just an entity which the seceded states have chosen to join and have nominated to act on their behalf. How that entity organizes it's own affairs is its own business, but in a legal sense the Union deals with the Confederacy because it represents the military force of the rebellion and because the seceded states have authorized it to represent them, in and of itself, the Confederacy has no legitimacy to negotiate on the matter of recognition.

Basically, the Confederacy winning the war is what persuades the Union and the loyal states to recognize the secession of the rebel states and their incorporation of the Confederacy. But the treaty still needs to create the legal consent.

I kind of went down the rabbit whole of legal technicalities of secession here, and that's probably mind numbing to most of the other readers, so my apologies. I just find these legal questions and alternate legal structures really really fascinating. To return to the initial discussion, Union recognition of the Restored government of Virginia in no way implies recognition of the Confederate exile governments of Maryland, Kansas, Missouri, Delaware, or Kentucky. All of those states remain in the Union until the United States consents to their separation. So until that point the Unionist governmentof Virginia is the rightful representative of the state, simply one in control of only a small portion of it and the the Confederate governments of split states are illegitimate authorities of insurrections against the rightful governements until the Union recognizes them as legitimate.
 

Saphroneth

Banned
"Yeah.....
They might be Johnie Foreigners.......
But their OUR Johnie Foreigners......
So hands off or you'll get a bloody nose! "



This is going to have a fairly major effect down the line, actually.
Something I intend to show is basically a Russian "go" for India, which will reinforce this idea of Imperial Federation as "the NATO of Tea".


As for the legal stuff... well, of course, the intent of it was that the US was seeking legal justification for pretty much what it was going to have done anyway. (This is, of course, perfectly natural - after all, there wasn't a legal mechanism for the Thirteen Colonies to declare themselves independent from the British Crown but they did that anyway.)
 
"Yeah.....
They might be Johnie Foreigners.......
But their OUR Johnie Foreigners......
So hands off or you'll get a bloody nose! "

.......A quote from Queen Victoria at the time

If that's a reference to Canada, I don't think they were considered "foreign", were they? Maybe the Quebecois were, but the English-speaking Dominions were generally considered, well, English.
 
@Saphroneth: what's your feeling about what the UK actually wants now? They entered the war basically wanting an apology. The list of demands you gave above (which seem to be accepted by the USA) are quite a bit above that. I assume the reasoning for this is that (1) the UK's now had to fight a war so wants a bit more than initially, (2) the USA is inclined to just agree to anything which isn't too outrageous, and (3) the UK is taking the chance to set-up a balance of power in NA where no one country will be the hegemon.
Balance of Power in North America, how did that never occur to me? You sir, are a genius.
 
Saphroneth said:
As for the legal stuff... well, of course, the intent of it was that the US was seeking legal justification for pretty much what it was going to have done anyway. (This is, of course, perfectly natural - after all, there wasn't a legal mechanism for the Thirteen Colonies to declare themselves independent from the British Crown but they did that anyway.)

That may well be so. However, I think it would be a mistake to dismiss the legal issue and positions as simply a justification of actions that would have been done anyway. They may well have been that, but they also had a real affect on actions and decisions. If nothing else, then there's a need to act in accordance with a legal principle once it's established. That will affect things like treaties, in this case the treaty between the US and CS will need to be worded in a way that creates an acceptable legal framework for the Union. That in turn has repercussions in terms of the post-war relationship. OTL shows us that legal understanding and law in general had an impact on the Civil War and on the decisions of the period's actors.
 
11-16 July 1862

Saphroneth

Banned
11 July

The Vanderbilt evades HMS Malacca off Pantelleria, taking two hits from 32-lber shells at long range and suffering one casualty. Her return fire damages the mast of the Malacca with a lucky hit, and Vanderbilt pours on the coal in order to get clear - travelling east and south, to pass close to the North African coast and hopefully escape notice.
This means she is off the main trade routes, and cannot take any more prizes for several days.



13 July
The state of peace notwithstanding, the Confederate Army of Maryland continues with the non-military preparations in case the war continues. Much rifle training is taking place, with many Confederate soldiers happy to practice useful (and prestigious) skills at the CSA's expense, and there is even a railroad being set up to allow a future offensive north to be better supplied if need be.


16 July
A major offensive takes place at Pueblo. de Lorencz uses his troops in a three-phase assault - his best riflemen suppressing the enemy from long range, his guerilleros attacking all along the front with sniping, and the main French army mounting an assault supported by artillery.

This attack does not succeed in ending the siege - the Mexican defenders are tenacious - but the major shifting of troops required to fend the assault off does reduce the defenders of an important hill a mile from the city enough that a large band of guerilleros manage to drive the defenders off. de Lorencz commits his reserves, retaining control of the hill and driving off a Mexican countercharge, and has his heavy artillery begin shifting to the summit of the hill - from this position, he will be able to bombard almost any part of the Mexican defences with his longer-ranged rifles.
 

Saphroneth

Banned
It hasn't been a good year to be between Canada and Belize has it?
The Mexican Intervention was never going to go entirely pleasantly - this time it might actually be over sooner, though. (And frankly it'll be good to have a French patron for Mexico once the war's over... the CSA may otherwise look a bit hungry.)
 
The Mexican Intervention was never going to go entirely pleasantly - this time it might actually be over sooner, though. (And frankly it'll be good to have a French patron for Mexico once the war's over... the CSA may otherwise look a bit hungry.)
It's always good to see a timeline where it doesn't look like Maximilian will get shot. Of course, he might not become Emperor here, although I'm not sure things have changed enough to prevent it.
 

Saphroneth

Banned
It's always good to see a timeline where it doesn't look like Maximilian will get shot. Of course, he might not become Emperor here, although I'm not sure things have changed enough to prevent it.
The Republican cause is doing worse than OTL, so Maximilian is likely to still become Emperor.
 
I am curious why you want to gove Delmarva to the Union? Especially if (Eastern) Maryland goes to the CSA.

BTW I think the "legal" background will be a plebiscite (if teh CSA is daring enough to risk a defeat in the voting booth) or a legislature decision (shadow governemnt)

Kansas - probably not, but Oklahome (Indian Territory) might be a prize to take.

Arizona you did not mention (?)

New Mexico (?)

Southern California, maybe a demand, but only to get ther other bites - more a bargaining chip

Missouri - probably a slice in the South?=

KEntucky, definitely

West Virginia - Can't see that going to the US - the south was held by the Confederacy (OTL) until spring 1863! - THE "union" government will be "ignored" by the CSA... While I think most mountain men will have problems with staying in the Confederacy, the strategic value of WV is so high - I would not want to give it up.

Maine - Northern to Canada???
 

Saphroneth

Banned
Going down that list.

Delmarva is hard to keep, and I think it likely that they'd rather spend their influence elsewhere.
Oklahoma Territory was an obvious one.
Arizona and New Mexico - they'd want the Confederate version of the Arizona territory as a minimum.
Southern California - State of Colorado is my impetus here. I also understand they really wanted a trans-continental railroad.
Missouri I think they might just give up if need be.
Kentucky and Virginia - they'd really like it all, but would probably give some up for concessions elsewhere.
Maine - the Aroostock War border might be pressed, but would be among the first to be given up IMO.

The Union might end up in a "Delmarva, WV, Southern California - pick one" situation.
 
I agree delmarva is hard to hold, but its located convenient to be fortified against the CSA if in Union hand. - better keep it now and lose it early in a war than let the Union sit there and build forts and all the nasty things to have a stranglehold on teh Chesapeake.
 

Saphroneth

Banned
I agree delmarva is hard to hold, but its located convenient to be fortified against the CSA if in Union hand. - better keep it now and lose it early in a war than let the Union sit there and build forts and all the nasty things to have a stranglehold on teh Chesapeake.
As far as I can tell you can't have a stranglehold on the Chesapeake until fort guns can reliably reach out ten to eleven miles (which means some decades in advance), though it's true that the Confederacy with the Delmarva can actually cut off traffic to pretty much evey Union coastal city south of New York! (The Delaware river at Wilmington is less than a mile wide.)

So at this point I think I can divide it into two or three categories.

Things the Confederacy is almost certainly getting unless the Union gives them carte blanche with the rest of their wish list:
Most of Maryland.
Most of Kentucky.
The vast majority of Virginia.

Things which would make the Confederacy stronger at the expense of the Union:
Delmarva. (Demarva gives them excellent blockade potential, they could seal the Delaware river and after that they basically just need the ships to blockade NY Narrows, Long Island Sound and Boston and they've crippled the US - of course, getting the actual ships for that is another matter, but it also means the Union would be extremely wary of going to war with Britain again.)
The American Bottom, SE Missouri. (Gives both-banks control of the Mississippi up to the Mississippi-Ohio confluence.)
SoCal and the strip heading east from that. (Gives the Confederacy a route for a trans-continental railroad.)

Things the Confederacy could give up in return for significant concessions elsewhere:

Some of NW Virginia. (The counties north of the Mason-Dixon Line could actually be critically strategically important as they would essentially cut Pittsburgh off from the west, and most of the Union in half! The Union might have no choice but to take that in return for fairly major concessions elsewhere.)
 
Last edited:
What are the odds of the Union taking this pill, and then arm up and get all of it back, with interest, a decade or three later, if the CSA gets greedy?
 

Saphroneth

Banned
What are the odds of the Union taking this pill, and then arm up and get all of it back, with interest, a decade or three later, if the CSA gets greedy?
That's the real bugger of it all for the Union (and the Confederacy) - what none of them know at this point is that it's quite likely the Confederacy will be getting very rich very quickly in a few decades since almost all the US's good oil land is in bits which are basically guaranteed to be part of the CSA no matter the peace. (Meaning basically Texas, though Oklahoma's got plenty too.)


The attached map, by the way, is the "Worst Case" for the US. The treaty line is not likely to actually be here, the Union's almost certainly going to get some concessions apart from this - the question is, what will they consider the most important?

(If I were the Union, I'd consider the most important bits to get to be the Delmarva and the northernmost section of Virginia as those are easy ways to cripple the US in a future war.)
 

Attachments

  • us_worst_Case.jpg
    us_worst_Case.jpg
    186.9 KB · Views: 311
That's the real bugger of it all for the Union (and the Confederacy) - what none of them know at this point is that it's quite likely the Confederacy will be getting very rich very quickly in a few decades since almost all the US's good oil land is in bits which are basically guaranteed to be part of the CSA no matter the peace. (Meaning basically Texas, though Oklahoma's got plenty too.)

But will the CSA be able to use that money? Given their horrible society, arch-conservative to boot, what are the odds the money will be squandered, used to prop up a failing system and oppress the slaves, leading to a harsh defeat in the next war?
 
Top