If they will not meet us on the open sea (a Trent TL)
- Thread starter Saphroneth
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That's in part why I like this TL so much, because it shows that the "America F Yeah" attitude on the site, that the US would have defeated both the UK and the CSA ala Robert Conroy's 1862 if it kept fighting is wrong.
Saphroneth
Banned
At the very least the average ACW AH book tends to assume that the US was already the world super power... but determination is how you often can lose in a big way. Any poker player will tell you to cut your losses...
Heck, OTL if the CS heads of state had wanted they could have had a legal protection of slavery, iirc, from Lincoln. As late as 1864!
Heck, OTL if the CS heads of state had wanted they could have had a legal protection of slavery, iirc, from Lincoln. As late as 1864!
22-23 May 1862
Saphroneth
Banned
22 May
An elaborate system involving telegraph wire run from the site of Fort Lyon south through Virginia, west, around and then across the Potomac into Maryland - then down to the Confederate forces on the Pipe Creek Line - is used to spot fall of shot for an ex-Union 9" shell firing gun. The gun fires rarely, but it aims specifically for the White House.
While the actual damage done is minor - the shell flight time is so long that most of them burst in mid-air and those which do not are not well controlled - the effect on morale in the capital is devastating. A few members of Congress raise the subject that has been taboo up until now - a negotiated peace.
This discussion collapses in accusations of defeatism and foolishness, and nothing is done.
Meanwhile, McClellan requisitions the entire products of Springfield with their ad-hoc construction methods (some of which involves taking broken weapons and re-forging them, which has negative implications for barrel life) along with everything that has filtered through the blockade in the last month. He uses the results to replace his own breakages and gain around a 10,000 increase.
The army - now the Army of the Potomac in name only as it is currently if anything closer to the Susquehanna - is being put through training McClellan hopes will give them the will to fight, despite the string of reverses they suffered earlier in the year.
23 May
Lightened of her guns (following separately) the City-class ironclad Louisville completes passage through the Illinois and Michigan canal. It has been a tight squeeze and the ironclad vessel grounded several times, but with her present the Union has an ironclad unit on the lakes.
There is some celebration of this fact, though it is moderated by the observation that there are British ironclads also on the lakes.
As the Passiac class ironclad built in Pittsburgh is too large to follow the same route, there are arguments about what to do with her. Notable suggestions include keeping her in Pittsburgh to protect the city, sending her down the Mississippi to thence come around the west coast, and even disassembling her completely and rebuilding her at a port of greater convenience.
The CSS Mississippi and Louisiana are declared complete at New Orleans. Low powered as they are, they are still considered useful, and begin sailing up the Mississippi with tugs beinging them upriver. When combined with the Arkansas and the Eastport, as well as the Tennessee when she is finished, the Confederacy hope to be able to push upriver and neutralize the Union's river navy.
An elaborate system involving telegraph wire run from the site of Fort Lyon south through Virginia, west, around and then across the Potomac into Maryland - then down to the Confederate forces on the Pipe Creek Line - is used to spot fall of shot for an ex-Union 9" shell firing gun. The gun fires rarely, but it aims specifically for the White House.
While the actual damage done is minor - the shell flight time is so long that most of them burst in mid-air and those which do not are not well controlled - the effect on morale in the capital is devastating. A few members of Congress raise the subject that has been taboo up until now - a negotiated peace.
This discussion collapses in accusations of defeatism and foolishness, and nothing is done.
Meanwhile, McClellan requisitions the entire products of Springfield with their ad-hoc construction methods (some of which involves taking broken weapons and re-forging them, which has negative implications for barrel life) along with everything that has filtered through the blockade in the last month. He uses the results to replace his own breakages and gain around a 10,000 increase.
The army - now the Army of the Potomac in name only as it is currently if anything closer to the Susquehanna - is being put through training McClellan hopes will give them the will to fight, despite the string of reverses they suffered earlier in the year.
23 May
Lightened of her guns (following separately) the City-class ironclad Louisville completes passage through the Illinois and Michigan canal. It has been a tight squeeze and the ironclad vessel grounded several times, but with her present the Union has an ironclad unit on the lakes.
There is some celebration of this fact, though it is moderated by the observation that there are British ironclads also on the lakes.
As the Passiac class ironclad built in Pittsburgh is too large to follow the same route, there are arguments about what to do with her. Notable suggestions include keeping her in Pittsburgh to protect the city, sending her down the Mississippi to thence come around the west coast, and even disassembling her completely and rebuilding her at a port of greater convenience.
The CSS Mississippi and Louisiana are declared complete at New Orleans. Low powered as they are, they are still considered useful, and begin sailing up the Mississippi with tugs beinging them upriver. When combined with the Arkansas and the Eastport, as well as the Tennessee when she is finished, the Confederacy hope to be able to push upriver and neutralize the Union's river navy.
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Oh please a separate peace! Lincoln was a reasonable man, surely he can begin to figure out what Britain wants after all? Otherwise we are on call to very possibly seeing New England break off, then who knows? A Pacific States of America too? I'm hoping Britain gets the apology and then starts arming the North or even turn on Johnny Reb....
Saphroneth
Banned
The basic problem the Union has at this point is that, even if they made a separate peace with the British (and it requires a leap of understanding to realize that the power currently invading Michigan - albeit by accident - isn't trying to help the Confederacy), a lot of the weapons which the Union would have OTL purchased have TTL gone straight to the Confederacy (which is actually able to replace most of their smoothbores) - with the Union essentially not able to collect on their contracted weapon orders (well over half a million small arms) the overseas suppliers are claiming frustration and selling them to the Confederacy at about the same price. (The CSA is exporting cotton like bananas, they can afford it - especially since there's still a global cotton supply problem.)
Since the US commerce raiding in the Atlantic essentially consists of the Mississippi, and since that can only stop British ships... stopping that weapon supply is simply not happening. (Heck, the Confederacy have made a couple of well-considered purchases of British artillery, which as far as I can tell is equipment that was not barred from sale to foreign governments.)
So in the event of a peace with Britain, the Union would have a lot more troops to rush south and prevent further advances - in theory. They'd still be significantly worse off numerically than the OTL army size of 30 June 1862, and it's not as if that was winning on all fronts.
Worse, the Union navy is basically gone. The Confederate navy is arguably slightly larger, and that's a big problem as the Union's primary advantage in naval matters in the Civil War was that it had the starting advantage of "lots of ships and shipyards". TTL the Confederacy has Norfolk Navy Yard locked down extremely tight and the Union hasn't a hope of wresting it from them for years, while most of the physical infrastructure of the Northern shipyards got burned or blown up earlier in the year.
That said, I don't think it's likely New England would break off. There's still quite a lot of Federal troops in the area if nothing else (they're mostly there to defend against the British Army of Lower Canada and to stop the Royal Navy marching inland and torching Springfield or West Point, but they're there).
California... California's tricky. Particularly as the state had, AFAICT, requested a split into two states (north and south) OTL but the Civil War prevented action on it. You could well see a Confederacy with control over a territorial corridor to the West Coast of North America.
ED: though California reminds me - the Union would have serious trouble paying for weapons and the war effort by this point. Pay is likely late for the soldiers, for example - there's two reasons, one of which is the bank run which happened OTL on news of the threat of war with Britain (translation: no specie payments by the banks, all Federal operations are in heavily deprecated greenbacks) and the other of which is that there's no California gold at all while exporting grain (though legal, since neither power has blocked it) is fraught with inconvenience.
Grain is the only thing the Union has left to pay for the war with aside from local borrowing.
...(as an aside, if I really wanted to screw the Union I'd have had them do some of the things people on this board recommend in the event of a Trent war. A Union embargoing grain with no gold from California is a Union completely bankrupt!)
Since the US commerce raiding in the Atlantic essentially consists of the Mississippi, and since that can only stop British ships... stopping that weapon supply is simply not happening. (Heck, the Confederacy have made a couple of well-considered purchases of British artillery, which as far as I can tell is equipment that was not barred from sale to foreign governments.)
So in the event of a peace with Britain, the Union would have a lot more troops to rush south and prevent further advances - in theory. They'd still be significantly worse off numerically than the OTL army size of 30 June 1862, and it's not as if that was winning on all fronts.
Worse, the Union navy is basically gone. The Confederate navy is arguably slightly larger, and that's a big problem as the Union's primary advantage in naval matters in the Civil War was that it had the starting advantage of "lots of ships and shipyards". TTL the Confederacy has Norfolk Navy Yard locked down extremely tight and the Union hasn't a hope of wresting it from them for years, while most of the physical infrastructure of the Northern shipyards got burned or blown up earlier in the year.
That said, I don't think it's likely New England would break off. There's still quite a lot of Federal troops in the area if nothing else (they're mostly there to defend against the British Army of Lower Canada and to stop the Royal Navy marching inland and torching Springfield or West Point, but they're there).
California... California's tricky. Particularly as the state had, AFAICT, requested a split into two states (north and south) OTL but the Civil War prevented action on it. You could well see a Confederacy with control over a territorial corridor to the West Coast of North America.
ED: though California reminds me - the Union would have serious trouble paying for weapons and the war effort by this point. Pay is likely late for the soldiers, for example - there's two reasons, one of which is the bank run which happened OTL on news of the threat of war with Britain (translation: no specie payments by the banks, all Federal operations are in heavily deprecated greenbacks) and the other of which is that there's no California gold at all while exporting grain (though legal, since neither power has blocked it) is fraught with inconvenience.
Grain is the only thing the Union has left to pay for the war with aside from local borrowing.
...(as an aside, if I really wanted to screw the Union I'd have had them do some of the things people on this board recommend in the event of a Trent war. A Union embargoing grain with no gold from California is a Union completely bankrupt!)
You know, that does sound pretty interesting. All US screws I've read involve it breaking apart. Screwing it with a complete economic collapse it won't recover from for a good while would be really new and fresh.
Saphroneth
Banned
I'm pretty sure the US barely avoided an economic implosion OTL in the War of 1812 - they were really tottering along for a good while afterwards. Here the issue is the same, and it also means it's tricky to get at the CSA early enough for a re-annexation of any sort. (By the time the Union can really stomach an aggressive war, financially, the CSA's going to be pretty much an established country.)
It's also probably worth thinking about how industrialization happens. For the British, it was basically that they were the first - so lucky them!
But for the US, their local industry was for a long time weak enough that it needed tarrif walls protecting it. Functionally that means that capital comes into the country in three ways - through the sale of grain, through the sale of cotton (and other products of the south) and through foreign investment.
The grain and cotton flow into the industries mainly because of that tarrif wall, as they mean people Buy Local (well, national) instead of buying cheaper British goods. This was a major source of rage for the South pre-war because it meant they saw the tarrif as aimed at them!
So, post CSA exit (Sexit? CSExit?), the Union's industrialization plan is out by the income that would have otherwise come from the South - who will be buying British instead. The Union's also lacking in some foreign investment, because the South is soaking some of it up - even if slave factories are a no-no for the discerning British philanthropist, there's always investing in a Free Factory 'to show how slavery is uneconomical'...
And as for that grain? Well, you can't use the Mississippi anymore for freight without paying the CSA, so that means freight overland - which is generally less efficient. With more money absorbed in the system that way and no particular global grain shortage, farmers are getting less - so, while the fraction of the money going to the US is unchanged for a given tonne of grain, becoming a farmer is... less attractive.
That means... lower immigration for the Union.
24-26 May 1862
Saphroneth
Banned
24 May
Slocum's division (screening Lexington and bolstered by fugutives from the Cumberland Gap) engages Smith's army some miles south of Hall's Gap. The engagement is small and indecisive, but prevents Smith from route-marching his way to Lexington - he must now lean on Cleburne's rifle companies to slowly work his way forwards.
Slocum's men are galled by the accurate (though light) rifle fire, and he begins to have the men from Morgan's division prepare a series of fall-back positions. Unfortunately, the fall line is not far to their north, and once they are forced to abandon this higher ground they will need to retreat some miles or come under artillery fire from the top of the bluffs.
25 May
Great Eastern arrives at Quebec. She unloads her supplies over the course of the day (and the next few) including three entire battalions of infantry. These men will be sent south to reinforce the position on Lake Champlain, while the supplies are destined for all over Canada.
26 May
An engagement between the Capricorn and the Louisville develops, some way west of Grand Rapids.
Unfortunately for the American vessel, it proves to be critically underarmoured compared to the British-built ironclad. Not only is the armour thinner, but it is more poorly laid out and of lower quality - and Capricorn carries 68-lber guns, well above the firepower required to pierce.
Despite this poor armour - compounded by substandard armament, with only one 8" rifle that can be really described as an armour piercing gun - the Louisville nevertheless fights herself gallantly. Her speed is higher than that of her opponent, which she uses repeatedly to attempt to engage from the fore or aft (areas with no guns) and her armour does mean the British ironclad cannot simply use shell. While those rounds which do hit penetrate with ease, they are deflected by the casemate armour - and, as such, Louisville does not suffer from a boiler penetration as might have otherwise been the case. In effect she is about as vulnerable as a wooden ship was in the days before armour or shell.
After an engagement lasting half an hour, however, the Eads boat runs out of luck. Capricorn's latest salvo penetrates her waterline, and Louisville already has too many compartments open to the lake - as such her heel, already bad, worsens to the point one of her open gunports begins letting in water. Once this begins, she quickly founders, and a total of about sixty of her crew do not make it out (whether due to injuries or due to the rapid flooding).
Perhaps strangely, the Louisville becomes a major part of the Union national psyche in the following months and years. Her endurance against what is recognized as a superior vessel is inspirational, and - though ultimately defeated - she becomes known as the Louisville Slugger.
(...sorry.)
Slocum's division (screening Lexington and bolstered by fugutives from the Cumberland Gap) engages Smith's army some miles south of Hall's Gap. The engagement is small and indecisive, but prevents Smith from route-marching his way to Lexington - he must now lean on Cleburne's rifle companies to slowly work his way forwards.
Slocum's men are galled by the accurate (though light) rifle fire, and he begins to have the men from Morgan's division prepare a series of fall-back positions. Unfortunately, the fall line is not far to their north, and once they are forced to abandon this higher ground they will need to retreat some miles or come under artillery fire from the top of the bluffs.
25 May
Great Eastern arrives at Quebec. She unloads her supplies over the course of the day (and the next few) including three entire battalions of infantry. These men will be sent south to reinforce the position on Lake Champlain, while the supplies are destined for all over Canada.
26 May
An engagement between the Capricorn and the Louisville develops, some way west of Grand Rapids.
Unfortunately for the American vessel, it proves to be critically underarmoured compared to the British-built ironclad. Not only is the armour thinner, but it is more poorly laid out and of lower quality - and Capricorn carries 68-lber guns, well above the firepower required to pierce.
Despite this poor armour - compounded by substandard armament, with only one 8" rifle that can be really described as an armour piercing gun - the Louisville nevertheless fights herself gallantly. Her speed is higher than that of her opponent, which she uses repeatedly to attempt to engage from the fore or aft (areas with no guns) and her armour does mean the British ironclad cannot simply use shell. While those rounds which do hit penetrate with ease, they are deflected by the casemate armour - and, as such, Louisville does not suffer from a boiler penetration as might have otherwise been the case. In effect she is about as vulnerable as a wooden ship was in the days before armour or shell.
After an engagement lasting half an hour, however, the Eads boat runs out of luck. Capricorn's latest salvo penetrates her waterline, and Louisville already has too many compartments open to the lake - as such her heel, already bad, worsens to the point one of her open gunports begins letting in water. Once this begins, she quickly founders, and a total of about sixty of her crew do not make it out (whether due to injuries or due to the rapid flooding).
Perhaps strangely, the Louisville becomes a major part of the Union national psyche in the following months and years. Her endurance against what is recognized as a superior vessel is inspirational, and - though ultimately defeated - she becomes known as the Louisville Slugger.
(...sorry.)
That's all right. Now where did I put my bat?
Attachments
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Louisville_Slugger.jpg
Ah! any excuse for a good pun! Don't be sorry; rejoice, instead!
27-28 May 1862
Saphroneth
Banned
27 May
The sloop Marion is brought to bay. Her attempt at raiding British commerce in the Mediterranean, while extremely courageous (and somewhat effective, due to the diversion of resources to North America) has finally resulted in her luck running out, and the HMS Leopard engages her in the Adriatic.
Both ships are not the newest vessels in their respective navies by any means - indeed, the Leopard is a paddle frigate, and carries the same number of guns as Marion (though a greater throw weight - Marion carries 18 32-lber guns, Leopard is armed with no fewer than nine heavy Armstrong rifles) - but the Marion has no engine, rendering her at a significant disadvantage under normal conditions.
The two ships engage repeated broadsides as they head towards the Croatian coast, following a fresh wind which minimizes the disadvantages of the American vessel, and Marion attempts to duck through the islands to gain escape - unfortunately for her, Leopard's captain guesses correctly on the route Marion is attempting to take and manages to hammer her with an accurate rifle salvo from the starboard quarter which dismasts her.
After this, the Marion strikes - unable to manoeuvre at all now, it would be trivial for Leopard to get a position on Marion's bow or stern for a rake. Nevertheless, Marion's action was well fought against a much heavier vessel and her captain is commended by that of Leopard.
28 May
Union troops fall back from Ann Arbor in the face of superior artillery.
At about the same time, the Mound City is engaged by the CSS Mississippi south of St Louis.
The unusual design of the Mississippi means that the projected top speed of the Confederate ironclad is not in fact attainable - she can only make 10 knots instead of the intended 14 - but this merely makes her no faster than the Mound City, and the Eads boat finds herself at an overall disadvantage as the Mississippi is enormous.
Half again as long and with more than twice the draft, the 3,800 ton Mississippi carries eight 9" smoothbores in each broadside and four 7" Brooke rifles as her chase guns in addition to 3.75 inches of layered armour specially made in an Atlanta foundry.
By comparison the Mound City is small and poorly protected, with a 2.5 inch casemate, and carries only 14 guns total (three 8" smoothbores, 4 42-lber rifles and six 32-lber rifles, as well as a lone 12-lber rifle). Her main advantage is her shallow draft, but this is not initially realized (the Mississippi does not look as fearsome as she is, as her unconventional 'house' construction gives her an unusual and deceptive profile, a problem exacerbated by the drizzling rain) and the Mound City gets closer than she should.
For the first quarter hour of the engagement, there is little major damage done by either side - Mound City's guns are mostly unable to penetrate the shield of the Mississippi, and Mississippi's crew are quite new at their task - but Mound City is unable to disengage easily, as (like all City class ironclads) her stern is unprotected and hence she cannot steam directly away.
Some minutes into the engagement, Mississippi scores a hit on the hull of Mound City. As this is also unprotected, it causes a major problem of incoming water - not as serious as it would be on a no-reserve-bouyancy monitor, but Mound City begins to list. This skews off the angle of her casemate, and the Mississippi's next salvo with the smoothbore guns scores two hits which penetrate the relatively thin iron.
Mississippi's fire hits the steam drum of the Mound City's engine, and steam bursts through the crew, transforming the ironclad into a catastrophe in moments as hot steam fills the entire casemate - the only crew to escape with relatively few injuries are the ones who jump straight into the water.
Mississippi is hardly unscarred - her own armour has had plates racked off in places, and several small injuries took place due to inexperience with the heavy guns - but her defeat of Mound City is an important one for control of the Mississippi River.
(This is a slight potential handwave - I'm not sure if Mississippi would in fact have been finished by this time - but she was launched and the person building her thought there were only a few weeks in it. Chalk it up to less pressure on New Orleans' defences and hence less militia drill if you have to.
As for the success of Mississippi, well, she was quite a beast (and OTL the Mound City was basically killed by a solid shot from an old 32 lber gun in pretty much this fashion, just from shore guns.) Another of the nearly-finished CS Ironclads which seem to show them going for quality over quantity - a reasonable approach, given their situation.)
The sloop Marion is brought to bay. Her attempt at raiding British commerce in the Mediterranean, while extremely courageous (and somewhat effective, due to the diversion of resources to North America) has finally resulted in her luck running out, and the HMS Leopard engages her in the Adriatic.
Both ships are not the newest vessels in their respective navies by any means - indeed, the Leopard is a paddle frigate, and carries the same number of guns as Marion (though a greater throw weight - Marion carries 18 32-lber guns, Leopard is armed with no fewer than nine heavy Armstrong rifles) - but the Marion has no engine, rendering her at a significant disadvantage under normal conditions.
The two ships engage repeated broadsides as they head towards the Croatian coast, following a fresh wind which minimizes the disadvantages of the American vessel, and Marion attempts to duck through the islands to gain escape - unfortunately for her, Leopard's captain guesses correctly on the route Marion is attempting to take and manages to hammer her with an accurate rifle salvo from the starboard quarter which dismasts her.
After this, the Marion strikes - unable to manoeuvre at all now, it would be trivial for Leopard to get a position on Marion's bow or stern for a rake. Nevertheless, Marion's action was well fought against a much heavier vessel and her captain is commended by that of Leopard.
28 May
Union troops fall back from Ann Arbor in the face of superior artillery.
At about the same time, the Mound City is engaged by the CSS Mississippi south of St Louis.
The unusual design of the Mississippi means that the projected top speed of the Confederate ironclad is not in fact attainable - she can only make 10 knots instead of the intended 14 - but this merely makes her no faster than the Mound City, and the Eads boat finds herself at an overall disadvantage as the Mississippi is enormous.
Half again as long and with more than twice the draft, the 3,800 ton Mississippi carries eight 9" smoothbores in each broadside and four 7" Brooke rifles as her chase guns in addition to 3.75 inches of layered armour specially made in an Atlanta foundry.
By comparison the Mound City is small and poorly protected, with a 2.5 inch casemate, and carries only 14 guns total (three 8" smoothbores, 4 42-lber rifles and six 32-lber rifles, as well as a lone 12-lber rifle). Her main advantage is her shallow draft, but this is not initially realized (the Mississippi does not look as fearsome as she is, as her unconventional 'house' construction gives her an unusual and deceptive profile, a problem exacerbated by the drizzling rain) and the Mound City gets closer than she should.
For the first quarter hour of the engagement, there is little major damage done by either side - Mound City's guns are mostly unable to penetrate the shield of the Mississippi, and Mississippi's crew are quite new at their task - but Mound City is unable to disengage easily, as (like all City class ironclads) her stern is unprotected and hence she cannot steam directly away.
Some minutes into the engagement, Mississippi scores a hit on the hull of Mound City. As this is also unprotected, it causes a major problem of incoming water - not as serious as it would be on a no-reserve-bouyancy monitor, but Mound City begins to list. This skews off the angle of her casemate, and the Mississippi's next salvo with the smoothbore guns scores two hits which penetrate the relatively thin iron.
Mississippi's fire hits the steam drum of the Mound City's engine, and steam bursts through the crew, transforming the ironclad into a catastrophe in moments as hot steam fills the entire casemate - the only crew to escape with relatively few injuries are the ones who jump straight into the water.
Mississippi is hardly unscarred - her own armour has had plates racked off in places, and several small injuries took place due to inexperience with the heavy guns - but her defeat of Mound City is an important one for control of the Mississippi River.
(This is a slight potential handwave - I'm not sure if Mississippi would in fact have been finished by this time - but she was launched and the person building her thought there were only a few weeks in it. Chalk it up to less pressure on New Orleans' defences and hence less militia drill if you have to.
As for the success of Mississippi, well, she was quite a beast (and OTL the Mound City was basically killed by a solid shot from an old 32 lber gun in pretty much this fashion, just from shore guns.) Another of the nearly-finished CS Ironclads which seem to show them going for quality over quantity - a reasonable approach, given their situation.)
A brilliant TL!
I suspect that the earlier discussions on British attitudes to the CSA may suffer from a '21st Century' mindset. Whilst there was a strong pro-abolitionist lobby amongst the more radical politicians and politically-minded working class, this wasn't sufficient to deter Palmerston and Gladstone from supporting the South. On 6th August 1862, Palmerston suggested to the Queen that, in view of the Confederate successes in the 'Seven Days' Britain should consider formally proposing an armistice by October. On 7th October 1862, Gladstone's 'Newcastle speech' included the observation that: 'We may be for or against the South. But there is no doubt that Jefferson Davis and other leaders of the South have made an Army; they are making, it appears, a Navy; and they have made — what is more than either — they have made a Nation... We may anticipate with certainty the success of the Southern States so far as regards their separation from the North.'
Interestingly, Brazil didn't finally abolish slavery until 1888 - I'm no expert on the subject, but I haven't seen anything to indicate that this caused any major issues in Anglo-Brazilian trade or diplomatic relations.
Apologies if this puts me at risk of being 'that guy', but we need to draw a distinction between 'supporting the South' and 'acknowledging Confederate independence when it's evidently been accomplished'. I don't think anybody's suggested they wouldn't do the latter: however, they're unlikely to rush towards it- and slavery is always a factor, even among those you claim were not concerned by it. When Palmerston talks about mediation, he makes it clear that 'if the Union is to be restored it would be essential in our view, that after what has taken place all the slaves should be emancipated, compensation being granted by Congress at the rate at which Great Britain emancipated her slaves in 1833'. When he drops mediation, it's because of 'the difficulty about slavery and the giving up of runaway slaves, about which we would hardly frame a proposal which the Southerns would accept, the Northerns to agree to, and the people of England would approve of.'
As for Gladstone's Newcastle speech, he both explicitly endorses neutrality and discusses the anti-slavery possibilities of Confederate independence:
'I can understand those who say- and it is my own opinion- that it is greatly for the interest of the negro race that they should have to do with their own masters alone, and not with their own masters backed by the resources of the Federal power. That has been the state of things heretofore, and which some mistakenly supposing it in the interest of the negro race, have thought it desirable to retain. The laws have been made by the owners of the slaves, but the enforcement of the laws made by the owners of the slaves has been carried out by the Federal Government... But it has appeared to me rather for the interest of England that the Union should continue, though I know that is not the opinion generally entertained. But I am sure we all feel that the course which Her Majesty’s ministers have endeavoured to pursue, of maintaining strict neutrality, has been the right course, and an expression of the general sense of the community. (Applause)... We may have our own opinion of slavery. We may be for the North or the South...'
As such, while Britain would acknowledge the Confederacy in the fullness of time, they wouldn't be in a rush to do so- and they certainly wouldn't be pally with the Confederacy after independence.
'The end of the slave trade did not mark the end of British interest in ending Brazilian slavery. It was not until Brazil gave evidence of a firm commitment to end the institution itself that Great Britain ceased to exert pressure. Whereas the law freeing those children of slaves born after 28 September 1871 is usually considered the first evidence of an abolitionist campaign, it was really the conclusion of the British phase of the story which had begun forty years earlier...
To raise the problem of slaves illegally imported was to threaten the entire institution, because they represented such a large proportion of the slave population... the Brazilians naturally feared any references to this matter... but the British continued to press the point officially and unofficially... the larger aim in mind was the end of Negro slavery altogether. As early as 1856 the British minister was suggesting to the Brazilians that they must lessen their ties to this institution. It was Christie again who thrust at the vitals of the country to which he was accredited. In 1862 he wrote Lord Russell: "I have, on various occasions, suggested to your lordship the importance of endeavouring if possible to... persuade the Brazilian government to measures leading to the ultimate extinction of slavery, and in the meantime mitigating its evils".
His methods of persuasion were effective: in January 1863 Christie ordered reprisals against Brazilian shipping, and a break in diplomatic relations was the result. Minor and patently insignificant incidents were the pretext for this action; the real issues at stake were the uncounted Africans imported since 1831, the thousands of emancipados, and Brazilian slavery itself... Just one year after the reprisals were initiated and at a time when the British response to the ensuing rupture of diplomatic relations was still uncertain, the emperor urged the cabinet to being thinking about the future of slavery "so that the same thing will not happen to us as with respect to the slave trade". A similar fear of "force" was then expressed in the Senate.' ('Britain and the Onset of Modernization in Brazil 1850-1914,' Richard Graham)
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Saphroneth
Banned
At this point I'm going to take a moment to look at the status of various ironclads in American waters.
Ships destroyed on the slips not noted. Hopefully I didn't miss any!
Union
Monitor: sunk.
Passaic: At Pittsburgh while the US works out where she's needed most urgently.
Casco: Being hastily reworked at Pittsburgh to try and make her more than useless.
Great Lakes ironclads - all sunk or destroyed on the slips, mostly by the Zodiacs. (e.g. Suncook, Tunixis)
Ozark - just starting construction at Mound City.
Marietta class - just starting at Pittsburgh.
City-class - five (Cairo, Carondelet, Cincinnati, Pittsburg, St. Louis) still intact on the Mississippi river system. Mound City and Louisville lost.
Indianola - incomplete.
Benton - still intact on the Mississippi river system.
Essex - undergoing ironclad upgrade.
Chillicothe - incomplete.
Choctaw - not purchased.
Lafayette - just purchased, not ironclad.
Tuscumbia - not yet laid down.
Naugatuck - barely ironclad at all. Escaped destruction at New York due to lack of gun.
Galena - lost.
Confederacy
Eastport - incomplete.
Virginia - much battered, on the Potomac.
Mississippi - on the Mississippi.
Louisiana - headed up the Mississippi.
Arkansas - fitting out.
Atlanta - undergoing conversion at Savannah.
Baltic - defending Mobile.
Floating Battery of Charleston - armour being stripped to produce a mobile ironclad.
Manassas - defending New Orleans.
New Orleans - at New Orleans.
Palmetto State - under construction.
Richmond - fitting out.
Tennessee - under construction.
Old Dominion (OTL Virginia II) - on the slipways.
British
Various Zodiac class ironclads are on the lakes or operating from captured island bases off the eastern seaboard. Leo is beached, but the rest of the class is still operable.
Warrior, Defence, Resistance and Black Prince - US waters.
Most of the Crimean ironclads are also in US waters.
Ships destroyed on the slips not noted. Hopefully I didn't miss any!
Union
Monitor: sunk.
Passaic: At Pittsburgh while the US works out where she's needed most urgently.
Casco: Being hastily reworked at Pittsburgh to try and make her more than useless.
Great Lakes ironclads - all sunk or destroyed on the slips, mostly by the Zodiacs. (e.g. Suncook, Tunixis)
Ozark - just starting construction at Mound City.
Marietta class - just starting at Pittsburgh.
City-class - five (Cairo, Carondelet, Cincinnati, Pittsburg, St. Louis) still intact on the Mississippi river system. Mound City and Louisville lost.
Indianola - incomplete.
Benton - still intact on the Mississippi river system.
Essex - undergoing ironclad upgrade.
Chillicothe - incomplete.
Choctaw - not purchased.
Lafayette - just purchased, not ironclad.
Tuscumbia - not yet laid down.
Naugatuck - barely ironclad at all. Escaped destruction at New York due to lack of gun.
Galena - lost.
Confederacy
Eastport - incomplete.
Virginia - much battered, on the Potomac.
Mississippi - on the Mississippi.
Louisiana - headed up the Mississippi.
Arkansas - fitting out.
Atlanta - undergoing conversion at Savannah.
Baltic - defending Mobile.
Floating Battery of Charleston - armour being stripped to produce a mobile ironclad.
Manassas - defending New Orleans.
New Orleans - at New Orleans.
Palmetto State - under construction.
Richmond - fitting out.
Tennessee - under construction.
Old Dominion (OTL Virginia II) - on the slipways.
British
Various Zodiac class ironclads are on the lakes or operating from captured island bases off the eastern seaboard. Leo is beached, but the rest of the class is still operable.
Warrior, Defence, Resistance and Black Prince - US waters.
Most of the Crimean ironclads are also in US waters.
Saphroneth
Banned
http://www.greatamericanhistory.net/nomination.htm
...gosh. This might resurface as an issue after a Civil War defeat!
...gosh. This might resurface as an issue after a Civil War defeat!
Saphroneth
Banned
A couple of possible TLs I could do as a break from / alternative to this one:
1) President Seward.
Basically - if you think this TL is hard on the Union, President Seward would have had the CSA independent inside 1861.
Here's his solution to the Civil War:
2) McClellan has a different experience in the Crimea and adopts British-style rifle training over the winter of 1861-2.
The result of this is basically the Peninsular Campaign taking Richmond pretty much with ease.
1) President Seward.
Basically - if you think this TL is hard on the Union, President Seward would have had the CSA independent inside 1861.
Here's his solution to the Civil War:
I would demand explanations from Spain and France, categorically, at once.
I would seek explanations from Great Britain and Russia, and send agents into Canada, Mexico, and Central America, to rouse a vigorous continental spirit of independence ... against European intervention.
And, if satisfactory explanations are not received from Spain and France,
Would convene Congress and declare war against them.
So yes, that could easily result in the Union being at war with the Confederacy, Spain, France, Great Britain and Russia at once. The keyword is "splat".I would seek explanations from Great Britain and Russia, and send agents into Canada, Mexico, and Central America, to rouse a vigorous continental spirit of independence ... against European intervention.
And, if satisfactory explanations are not received from Spain and France,
Would convene Congress and declare war against them.
2) McClellan has a different experience in the Crimea and adopts British-style rifle training over the winter of 1861-2.
The result of this is basically the Peninsular Campaign taking Richmond pretty much with ease.
Saphroneth
Banned
McClellan winning the ACW in 1862 would be... not so much a pure US wank. Remember, that means the war ends before most emancipation measures - so the US at the end of the war has slavery.